Euro and Swissy Up on Safe Haven Flow
The post Christmas thin markets are dominated by safe haven flow on escalation of conflicts in Middle East. Swiss Franc rallies across the board and takes Euro along with it. In particular, EUR/GBP scores another record high of 0.9663 today, while GBP/CHF also dives to new low at 1.5503. While dollar remains pretty steady against other major currencies like Yen, Sterling and Aussie, dollar index is dragged down by weakness against Euro and Swissy and is back pressing 80 level. Gold rises to as high as 870 so far while crude oil is firm above $38 level. Israeli warplane pounded the Hamas-ruled Gaza for the third consecutive day on Monday and more attacked could be planned after over 300 were killed.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
SCAM INVESTIGATION COMMITTEE
Two New Managed Account Scams
Managed forex accounts can be very dangerous. You have to trust the brokerage. You have to trust the managed account company. You have to trust the account manager who will trade your account. If any one of these fails to live up to your trust, you can lose all your money.
We've had 2 different managed account companies investigations reach the end in the last 2 days. These are HSNNA and Lloyds Capital Group LLC (LloydsFx).
FPA member Trader B had an account managed by HSNNA. First, HSNNA required him to use HSNNA as an introducing broker. This arrangement cost Trader B an extra pip per trade. HSNNA's representative, Jason Drenston, told Trader B that the broker required this. According to the broker, this was not true. This put HSNNA in a position to overtrade the account in order to collect excess spread commissions. This added up to over 10% of the account balance per month sometimes. Instead of being profitable, the initial balance was eroded by excess spread commissions and eventually destoyed by poor risk management. Trader B had already expressed concerns about over trading and excess risk, but HSNNA continued to trade the same way.
Two other FPA members also reported losing the bulk of the money in their accounts managed by HSNNA due to poor risk management.
After a time, Jason Drenston stopped responding to Trader B's messages. He then came to the FPA. FPA Investigator Tessa and Trader B repeatedly tried to contact HSNNA and Jason Drenston, but could get no response. The HSNNA website has been suspended. It appears that the people behind this have decided to take the money they have and leave.
We cannot consider poor trading alone to be a scam. We do consider refusing to speak with a trader to be unethical. We consider deception about IB commission structure to be unethical. We consider churning an account to generate excess commissions to be unethical. We consider failing to address a trader's concerns about risk to his account to be unethical. On this basis, we consider FPA member Trader B's scam complaint to be confirmed.
Trader B's original complaint about HSNNA
Official Scam Confirmation - HSNNA
Managed forex accounts can be very dangerous. You have to trust the brokerage. You have to trust the managed account company. You have to trust the account manager who will trade your account. If any one of these fails to live up to your trust, you can lose all your money.
We've had 2 different managed account companies investigations reach the end in the last 2 days. These are HSNNA and Lloyds Capital Group LLC (LloydsFx).
FPA member Trader B had an account managed by HSNNA. First, HSNNA required him to use HSNNA as an introducing broker. This arrangement cost Trader B an extra pip per trade. HSNNA's representative, Jason Drenston, told Trader B that the broker required this. According to the broker, this was not true. This put HSNNA in a position to overtrade the account in order to collect excess spread commissions. This added up to over 10% of the account balance per month sometimes. Instead of being profitable, the initial balance was eroded by excess spread commissions and eventually destoyed by poor risk management. Trader B had already expressed concerns about over trading and excess risk, but HSNNA continued to trade the same way.
Two other FPA members also reported losing the bulk of the money in their accounts managed by HSNNA due to poor risk management.
After a time, Jason Drenston stopped responding to Trader B's messages. He then came to the FPA. FPA Investigator Tessa and Trader B repeatedly tried to contact HSNNA and Jason Drenston, but could get no response. The HSNNA website has been suspended. It appears that the people behind this have decided to take the money they have and leave.
We cannot consider poor trading alone to be a scam. We do consider refusing to speak with a trader to be unethical. We consider deception about IB commission structure to be unethical. We consider churning an account to generate excess commissions to be unethical. We consider failing to address a trader's concerns about risk to his account to be unethical. On this basis, we consider FPA member Trader B's scam complaint to be confirmed.
Trader B's original complaint about HSNNA
Official Scam Confirmation - HSNNA
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Insight for Today
Quiet Markets Await US Data
With holidays coming close, market activity continue to decrease. Majors and crosses are bounded in tight range. Focus will turn to a bunch of economic data from US today including Nov Personal Income and spending, durables and conference board consumer confidence. Consumer confidence in Nov is forecasted to drop -0.7% after falling -1% in Oct. Durable goods orders should have fallen -3% in Nov, the 4th consecutive monthly decline after dropping -6.2% in October. Excluding transportation, it's also anticipated to be down by -3% with decline across most industries. Nov's personal consumption expenditure is expected to be flat (mom) as indicated by weak auto sales and retail consumption. As unemployment has been increasing, personal income should remain sluggish in Nov (consensus: 0%) after rising slightly by 0.3% in the previous month while personal spending should have contracted further by -0.7%.
With holidays coming close, market activity continue to decrease. Majors and crosses are bounded in tight range. Focus will turn to a bunch of economic data from US today including Nov Personal Income and spending, durables and conference board consumer confidence. Consumer confidence in Nov is forecasted to drop -0.7% after falling -1% in Oct. Durable goods orders should have fallen -3% in Nov, the 4th consecutive monthly decline after dropping -6.2% in October. Excluding transportation, it's also anticipated to be down by -3% with decline across most industries. Nov's personal consumption expenditure is expected to be flat (mom) as indicated by weak auto sales and retail consumption. As unemployment has been increasing, personal income should remain sluggish in Nov (consensus: 0%) after rising slightly by 0.3% in the previous month while personal spending should have contracted further by -0.7%.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/23/08
Hi there my Forex friend.
On Tuesday the 12-23 we have 3 situations to look out for
0430 EST UK GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
This is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.3% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
-0.2% or higher buy GBP/USD for about 30 pips
-0.8% or lower short GBP/USD for about 30 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
0830 EST US GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
As with UK GDP today, this is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.6% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
+0.1% or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
-1.1% or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
1000 EST US Existing and New Home Sales m/m.
EHS expected at 4.93M and NHS at 418K. I tip my hat a bit towards Existing home sales as the slightly more important report here, but definitely stay out on any conflict. Housing indicators aren't what they used to be, but with 2 out at the same time they could prove worthwhile.
EHS at 5.1M or NHS at 480K or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
EHS at 4.79M or NHS at 350K or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If both come out close to expectations, look for the technicals to take over, but it's more likely that the market and usd/jpy may rally on news that isn't horrible.
That's all for tonight. Good luck trading and Merry Christmas!
On Tuesday the 12-23 we have 3 situations to look out for
0430 EST UK GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
This is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.3% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
-0.2% or higher buy GBP/USD for about 30 pips
-0.8% or lower short GBP/USD for about 30 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
0830 EST US GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
As with UK GDP today, this is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.6% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
+0.1% or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
-1.1% or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
1000 EST US Existing and New Home Sales m/m.
EHS expected at 4.93M and NHS at 418K. I tip my hat a bit towards Existing home sales as the slightly more important report here, but definitely stay out on any conflict. Housing indicators aren't what they used to be, but with 2 out at the same time they could prove worthwhile.
EHS at 5.1M or NHS at 480K or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
EHS at 4.79M or NHS at 350K or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If both come out close to expectations, look for the technicals to take over, but it's more likely that the market and usd/jpy may rally on news that isn't horrible.
That's all for tonight. Good luck trading and Merry Christmas!
Monday, December 22, 2008
Current Forex Trading Signals
Hi there my forex friend.
Hi there my forex friend.
will be monitoring the markets and trading the key news down here this week. Tomorrow there is just one report worth looking out for, and that's:
NZ GDP q/q expected at -0.5. I would say a 0.3 deviation would be worth trading.
If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, I'd look to buy NZD/USD
If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, I'd look to sell NZD/USD
I'd expect a move of about 30 pips in either direction.
There's always a chance news like this might get ignored on a holiday week like this, but I think it has a decent chance of working. If it gets ignored, at least you can get out for a small gain or small loss without much harm done.
Take care folks, and Merry Christmas.
Hi there my forex friend.
will be monitoring the markets and trading the key news down here this week. Tomorrow there is just one report worth looking out for, and that's:
NZ GDP q/q expected at -0.5. I would say a 0.3 deviation would be worth trading.
If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, I'd look to buy NZD/USD
If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, I'd look to sell NZD/USD
I'd expect a move of about 30 pips in either direction.
There's always a chance news like this might get ignored on a holiday week like this, but I think it has a decent chance of working. If it gets ignored, at least you can get out for a small gain or small loss without much harm done.
Take care folks, and Merry Christmas.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/19/08
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, December 19th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI. Do not trade the spike on this. Last month we had -0.2 deviation and a very confused price action and eventually the CAD actually gained some value. It is expected to come out at -0.1% If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, USD/CAD should eventually god down by 20 to 30 pips; if it comes out at +0.1% or higher, USD/CAD should eventually go up by 20 to 30 pips.That's all for today. Have a good weekend.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/18/08
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONEAt 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate coming out. A few months ago it was a huge leading indicator but recently it did not work well because the market is now focused on current events, not what will be next month so such leading indicators are not the best to trade. If the deviation is lower than +/- 2.0, then probably trading against it would be the best option so if it spikes up, you can enter a short trade on EUR/USD; if it spikes down, you can buy EUR/USD. If the deviation is bigger than 2.0, then I would not trade against it (although chances are good it will retrace). Spike trading might or might not work - if you are able to get a small spread and be able to exit quickly, then I guess you can try spike trading here.
2. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out which is expected to come out at at -0.6%. It has a habit to spike and then to completely reverse so be prepared to see that again. Currently, the market is not driven by economic numbers (although in a few months they should again be very hot) so don't expect too much from this indicator either. If anything, I would trade 1.0% deviation. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD may go up by 25 to 30 pips (and it might also retrace then). If it comes out at -1.6%, GBP/USD should go down by 25 to 30 pips (and it may retrace as well).
3. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales coming out. This is a VERY weak report to trade, and I would not trade the spike here. A deviation of +/- 0.6 might produce a 20 pips spike but I don't trust this report too much (higher number, sell USD/CAD; lower number, buy USD/CAD; sell seems to be way more safe).
4. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philly Fed coming out. This is a very small indicator. Last month a deviation of -27.5 moved USD/JPY down by 30 pips but it was a HUGE deviation. If we see such deviation again, then yes, trading it might make sense although 10 deviation may work fine as well. If it comes out at -50 or more negative, you may sell USD/JPY and expect about 20 pips move. If it comes out at -30 or less negative, you may buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well. That's all for today. Have a good trading session.
1. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONEAt 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate coming out. A few months ago it was a huge leading indicator but recently it did not work well because the market is now focused on current events, not what will be next month so such leading indicators are not the best to trade. If the deviation is lower than +/- 2.0, then probably trading against it would be the best option so if it spikes up, you can enter a short trade on EUR/USD; if it spikes down, you can buy EUR/USD. If the deviation is bigger than 2.0, then I would not trade against it (although chances are good it will retrace). Spike trading might or might not work - if you are able to get a small spread and be able to exit quickly, then I guess you can try spike trading here.
2. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out which is expected to come out at at -0.6%. It has a habit to spike and then to completely reverse so be prepared to see that again. Currently, the market is not driven by economic numbers (although in a few months they should again be very hot) so don't expect too much from this indicator either. If anything, I would trade 1.0% deviation. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD may go up by 25 to 30 pips (and it might also retrace then). If it comes out at -1.6%, GBP/USD should go down by 25 to 30 pips (and it may retrace as well).
3. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales coming out. This is a VERY weak report to trade, and I would not trade the spike here. A deviation of +/- 0.6 might produce a 20 pips spike but I don't trust this report too much (higher number, sell USD/CAD; lower number, buy USD/CAD; sell seems to be way more safe).
4. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philly Fed coming out. This is a very small indicator. Last month a deviation of -27.5 moved USD/JPY down by 30 pips but it was a HUGE deviation. If we see such deviation again, then yes, trading it might make sense although 10 deviation may work fine as well. If it comes out at -50 or more negative, you may sell USD/JPY and expect about 20 pips move. If it comes out at -30 or less negative, you may buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well. That's all for today. Have a good trading session.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Today market
Today we made HUNDREDS of pips taking the EUR/USD long from 1.3822 to 1.4150, and we're still in some looking for somewhere near 1.4600 potentially.Risking just 1% of your account per trade, we've had the following results so far this month:12/20 of our afterspike scalps have made money so far this month earning a net 6.3% return4/4 on PMS trades: Sometimes we see a nice swing trade and make a call in the room, and sometimes we'll take the 2nd half of a good scalp trade and turn it into a swing trade with set TP and SL. We call those PMS trades. So far this month we've done 4 PMS trades, and all 4 have been winners with +3.68% on the first three, and the latest one off has locked in +6.1% with the potential of making a total of +12.85% if the final TP is hit on that single trade alone. Usually we get a huge winner like that once every month or two. In November we pulled in 10.70% from our trades as a whole as well.I guess what I'm saying is... if you're trading around the news anyways, and you're able to trade with at least $10,000, it's DEFINITELY well worth it to join the Diamonds room and start to trade and learn with us. I say $10,000 because that's enough money to trade with responsible levels of risk and still have trading be worth your time and effort. If you're not able to trade with that much money, it's still a decent idea to join up and start learning the ropes and gaining experience while you save up your money with you day job. That's how I did it at first. Again, even if you have the money to throw around, it's best to trade very small with any service for the first month or two until you really get the hang of things and have a lot of practice doing it with smaller amounts.If you're just not in a position to take advantage of the Diamonds room, that's fine too... maybe later some day, but at least take full advantage of the free videos I'm putting out there. I know lots of times you get lazy, and you click the link, and you decide to just read the text and move on to other stuff... I used to do the same thing a lot of times with Felix's old signals when he used to do these. However, oftentimes there is a LOT of good info in the video, and I don't write the transcript... . The text is Crazy Cat's quick rundown of the basics of the news stuff and his take on it while all the market predictions, potential trade levels on key pairs, quirks to look out for, long term forecasts, etc. that I work into the videos from time to time don't make it into the text. Take full advantage of these videos because I may not be able to give all this stuff out for free forever.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Trade Signal
Let's talk about Friday.1. Friday, December 12th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 8:30 a.m. we are going to have US PPI and US Retail Sales. U.S. Retail Sales headline is expected to come out at -2.0%. and U.S. Retail Sales core is expected to come out at -1.8%. I would not worry too much about PPI. This may or may not work because the market is so absorbed about the other news now. But, I still think it may work but do not trade it on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, trade only on USD/JPY. If the core number comes out at -2.8% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at -0.8% or less negative, or positive, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well.That's all for today. Have a good trading session, and have a good weekend.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Today's Signal
Let's talk Thursday - very simple day.1. Thursday, December 4th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will cut the rates by 100 bp from 3.00% to 2.00%. If they cut the rates to 2.00%, then initially the price action will be unpredictable but the resulting pressure should be higher on GBP/USD. If you can buy at the dip, buy it but probably it will be around pre-release price for a while so there will be plenty of time to set up a good trade. If they cut to 2.25% or 2.50%, GBP/USD may spike up but then it should reverse as this would be disappointing the market. It is tricky to trade but there is a way to make good money.2. Thursday, December 4th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONEAt 7:45 a.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of Euro Zone. Everyone is expecting at least 50 bp cut but some people are expecting bigger cut than 0.50% from 3.25% to 2.75%. If they cut to 2.75% or to 3.00%, the initial reaction might be funny but overall move should be Euro-negative. If they cut by more than expected, the market may take it as a very responsive move at after the initial price action it might be Euro-positive event.That would be all for Thursday.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
forex signal 3rd DEC
Let's talk about Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI which is expected to come out at 41.2. I would not trade smaller deviation than 2.0. Last month we had -2.1 deviation and GBP/USD went down by about 30 pips. This indicator still worked past 3 months although it does not move a lot of pips. If it comes out at 43.0 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 39.2 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move as well.
2. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. This needs to deviate a lot to move USD/JPY, and even if it deviates a lot, spikes are not huge. If it comes out at -55K or less negative, this might move USD/JPY up a bit. If it comes out at at -275K or lower, USD/JPY may move down a bit. I don't like trading this report, however.
3. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It is not so important report now. I would use a big trigger here such as 5.0. Chances are low it will deviate that much but once a while it happens. If it comes out at 47 or higher, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should move up by 35 pips. If it comes out at 37 or lower, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should go down by 35-40 pips as well.
4. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 3:00 p.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of New Zealand. It is expected it will come out at 5.00% so 150 bp cut is expected. If they cut by that much, although initially we might see price going down on NZD/USD, overall NZD/USD may push higher as this would tell people that the government is listening to the market needs. If they cut much less than expected, the initial spike might be up but NZD/USD may push lower as people will be disappointed. I am not sure yet if I will be trading it with the SNW.
That's all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI which is expected to come out at 41.2. I would not trade smaller deviation than 2.0. Last month we had -2.1 deviation and GBP/USD went down by about 30 pips. This indicator still worked past 3 months although it does not move a lot of pips. If it comes out at 43.0 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 39.2 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move as well.
2. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. This needs to deviate a lot to move USD/JPY, and even if it deviates a lot, spikes are not huge. If it comes out at -55K or less negative, this might move USD/JPY up a bit. If it comes out at at -275K or lower, USD/JPY may move down a bit. I don't like trading this report, however.
3. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It is not so important report now. I would use a big trigger here such as 5.0. Chances are low it will deviate that much but once a while it happens. If it comes out at 47 or higher, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should move up by 35 pips. If it comes out at 37 or lower, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should go down by 35-40 pips as well.
4. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 3:00 p.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of New Zealand. It is expected it will come out at 5.00% so 150 bp cut is expected. If they cut by that much, although initially we might see price going down on NZD/USD, overall NZD/USD may push higher as this would tell people that the government is listening to the market needs. If they cut much less than expected, the initial spike might be up but NZD/USD may push lower as people will be disappointed. I am not sure yet if I will be trading it with the SNW.
That's all for Wednesday.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
December 2nd 2008
Let's talk about Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
The only one tradable report is Australian GDP q/q. This should be tradable with 0.2 trigger; in fact, 0.1 trigger last time moved AUD/USD down a little bit. 0.2 may work, 0.3 should be really good. It is expected it will come out at 0.2. If it comes out at 0.4, AUD/USD should go up by 35 pips or so (but expect retracements). If it comes out at 0.0, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 pips move as well.
That's pretty much all for tomorrow. I am sorry for the late email but on the other hand the Australian report is Tuesday evening so there is a lot of time to read it.
1. Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
The only one tradable report is Australian GDP q/q. This should be tradable with 0.2 trigger; in fact, 0.1 trigger last time moved AUD/USD down a little bit. 0.2 may work, 0.3 should be really good. It is expected it will come out at 0.2. If it comes out at 0.4, AUD/USD should go up by 35 pips or so (but expect retracements). If it comes out at 0.0, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 pips move as well.
That's pretty much all for tomorrow. I am sorry for the late email but on the other hand the Australian report is Tuesday evening so there is a lot of time to read it.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Signal Forex
Let's talk about Monday.
1. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. I looked at this report and I think it is not tradable. Sir Pips also thinks to skip it.
2. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP. I looked at the charts, it seems it is better than UK Manufacturing PMI but still not reliable enough to enter a trade. In fact, it even goes against the number. Perhaps trying to trade against it might not be a bad idea but I will personally skip it. 3. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. If you look at last month chart, we had -2.6 deviation and within 3 minutes GBP/USD went down by 100 pips. Wow, great trade except........ yes, it went down, not up. EUR/USD went down by nearly 40 pips as well. USD/JPY also went... down, also around 40 pips (at least good direction). So did EUR/JPY (65 pips down). Two months ago we had crazy deviation and overall GBP/USD (with a temporary spike up) went down. So did USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Therefore, it seems it is tradable with 2.0 deviation but do NOT trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD. You can trade USD/JPY, or even better, EUR/JPY. If it comes out lower than expected by 2.0 (-2.0 deviation), EUR/JPY should move down by 40 to 50 pips. If it deviates by +2.0, then EUR/JPY should go up by 40 to 50 pips. Again, do not trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD on this (or you can try to trade against it but be careful as trading against is always risky).
4. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. I used to love this indicator but since the Australian government cut funds to do necessary researches, this indicator got screw up. We will also have Interest Rate decision that day so the market will be focused on the IR, not RS.
5. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. Last two months we had amazing spike trades. It is expected they will cut the rates from 5.25% to 4.50%. If they cut the rates to 4.75%, we might see a 40+ pips spike up on AUD/USD and then reversal. If they cut the rates by 1% to 4.25%, then AUD/USD should go down by 40+ pips and it will probably reverse as well. Be careful with the buy trigger, and obviously the less they cut, the more strong buy signal would be.
That's all for Monday.
1. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. I looked at this report and I think it is not tradable. Sir Pips also thinks to skip it.
2. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP. I looked at the charts, it seems it is better than UK Manufacturing PMI but still not reliable enough to enter a trade. In fact, it even goes against the number. Perhaps trying to trade against it might not be a bad idea but I will personally skip it. 3. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. If you look at last month chart, we had -2.6 deviation and within 3 minutes GBP/USD went down by 100 pips. Wow, great trade except........ yes, it went down, not up. EUR/USD went down by nearly 40 pips as well. USD/JPY also went... down, also around 40 pips (at least good direction). So did EUR/JPY (65 pips down). Two months ago we had crazy deviation and overall GBP/USD (with a temporary spike up) went down. So did USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Therefore, it seems it is tradable with 2.0 deviation but do NOT trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD. You can trade USD/JPY, or even better, EUR/JPY. If it comes out lower than expected by 2.0 (-2.0 deviation), EUR/JPY should move down by 40 to 50 pips. If it deviates by +2.0, then EUR/JPY should go up by 40 to 50 pips. Again, do not trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD on this (or you can try to trade against it but be careful as trading against is always risky).
4. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. I used to love this indicator but since the Australian government cut funds to do necessary researches, this indicator got screw up. We will also have Interest Rate decision that day so the market will be focused on the IR, not RS.
5. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. Last two months we had amazing spike trades. It is expected they will cut the rates from 5.25% to 4.50%. If they cut the rates to 4.75%, we might see a 40+ pips spike up on AUD/USD and then reversal. If they cut the rates by 1% to 4.25%, then AUD/USD should go down by 40+ pips and it will probably reverse as well. Be careful with the buy trigger, and obviously the less they cut, the more strong buy signal would be.
That's all for Monday.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
today's signal
UK minmax_bound came out as expected, and all the other reports also were either as expected or nearly as expected so it was a no trade, and GBP/USD did not move at all.Then at 8:30 a.m. we had bunch of U.S. reports. U.S. Durable Goods came out way much lower than expected so it turned out to be a pretty minmax_bound= trade but very bad for the afterspike trading. I did not trade it with minmax_bound= do it was a no trade for me. Sir Pips traded it in the Diamonds room and they closed with 5 pips loss so it was not that bad either.Tomorrow we are going to have a major holiday in the United States: Thanksgiving. Therefore, trading may be very strange.At 2:00 a.m. we will also have UK Nationwide House Prices. I used to trade it and was able to make a few pips but right now it is not that important report so I am going to skip. If it is going to deviate a lot, GBP/USD may move a little.Other than that, we will not have anything that is tradable.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Forex Signal 4 25th Nov. 2008
1a. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP Annualized and Canadian Retail Sales. Last time we had U.S. GDP annualized (in August), on +0.6 deviation we had only 30 pips move on USD/JPY and eventually it retraced. Well, I think we can give a try with a buy signal on EUR/JPY or USD/JPY if it comes out at 0.0% or higher and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, USD/JPY may move down a little but bad news are not necessarily bad for the USD anymore so I will not be trading negative deviation at all. If anything, I want to trade only a good news with very conservative money management and very small profit target (say, around 15 pips or so).
1b. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Canadian Retail Sales. I will not be trading it at all for a few reasons. The most important is we will have U.S. report at the same time. Also, we did not see decent deviations in past months so it is hard to predict how would it react. I do not want to test it on my account. I prefer not to trade than gamble. I do not gamble.
2. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Confidence. Last month it worked OK but it did not spike instantly so I don't really like trading stuff like that. Also, the deviation was huge and it took USD/JPY 5 minutes to move 45 pips. Sir Pips likes it, I am not really convinced to trade so I am going to write what he says but I will not be trading it myself. The range of expectations is between 30 to 45. If it comes out at 32 or lower, you might sell EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. If it comes out at 44 or higher, you may buy EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. It might work but this is not how I trade.
That's all for Tuesday.
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP Annualized and Canadian Retail Sales. Last time we had U.S. GDP annualized (in August), on +0.6 deviation we had only 30 pips move on USD/JPY and eventually it retraced. Well, I think we can give a try with a buy signal on EUR/JPY or USD/JPY if it comes out at 0.0% or higher and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, USD/JPY may move down a little but bad news are not necessarily bad for the USD anymore so I will not be trading negative deviation at all. If anything, I want to trade only a good news with very conservative money management and very small profit target (say, around 15 pips or so).
1b. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Canadian Retail Sales. I will not be trading it at all for a few reasons. The most important is we will have U.S. report at the same time. Also, we did not see decent deviations in past months so it is hard to predict how would it react. I do not want to test it on my account. I prefer not to trade than gamble. I do not gamble.
2. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Confidence. Last month it worked OK but it did not spike instantly so I don't really like trading stuff like that. Also, the deviation was huge and it took USD/JPY 5 minutes to move 45 pips. Sir Pips likes it, I am not really convinced to trade so I am going to write what he says but I will not be trading it myself. The range of expectations is between 30 to 45. If it comes out at 32 or lower, you might sell EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. If it comes out at 44 or higher, you may buy EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. It might work but this is not how I trade.
That's all for Tuesday.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Firday's Forex Signal
Let's now talk about Friday.
1. Friday, November 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI coming out. If the Core CPI m/m comes out at 0.2% or higher, probably it would be OK to buy USD/CAD but it might be good for a couple of minutes only. If it comes out at -0.2 or lower, probably it would be OK to sell USD/CAD but it will probably retrace as well. In any event, the price might move 30 pips or so. I will not, however, be trading it with SNW. I don't feel it is worthy to take a risk. I made some money on UK Retail Sales, and I am happy with that.
That's all for Friday.
1. Friday, November 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI coming out. If the Core CPI m/m comes out at 0.2% or higher, probably it would be OK to buy USD/CAD but it might be good for a couple of minutes only. If it comes out at -0.2 or lower, probably it would be OK to sell USD/CAD but it will probably retrace as well. In any event, the price might move 30 pips or so. I will not, however, be trading it with SNW. I don't feel it is worthy to take a risk. I made some money on UK Retail Sales, and I am happy with that.
That's all for Friday.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Forex Signal 20th NOV.
First let's review what happened on Wednesday.
At 8:30 a.m. we had US CPI. Both Sir Pips and I were right. It was not tradable with SNW as there was no spike happening so it was good to skip this report, but as far as afterspike is concerned, Sir Pips also correctly predicted that EUR/JPY would go up. He gave a trade in the Diamonds room and people made nice pips there.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales headline m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.9%. If it comes out at -1.5% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at -0.3% or less negative, or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. This might also be tradable if you trade against the spike, that is enter the other way at the top or bottom of the spike when it seems the price action is reversing.
2. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index coming out. This might move the market if the deviation is big like it was last time. If it comes out at -46 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 pips move. If it comes out at -24 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. You may give a try only if spread is very low and you will not get slipped.
That's all for Thursday.
At 8:30 a.m. we had US CPI. Both Sir Pips and I were right. It was not tradable with SNW as there was no spike happening so it was good to skip this report, but as far as afterspike is concerned, Sir Pips also correctly predicted that EUR/JPY would go up. He gave a trade in the Diamonds room and people made nice pips there.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales headline m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.9%. If it comes out at -1.5% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at -0.3% or less negative, or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. This might also be tradable if you trade against the spike, that is enter the other way at the top or bottom of the spike when it seems the price action is reversing.
2. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index coming out. This might move the market if the deviation is big like it was last time. If it comes out at -46 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 pips move. If it comes out at -24 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. You may give a try only if spread is very low and you will not get slipped.
That's all for Thursday.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Today's Signal
Let's first review what happened on Friday.
U.S. Retail Sales came out lower and USD/JPY moved down by over 20 pips but then it reversed. One thing for sure, I did say not to trade it on EUR/USD or other pairs, and surely it did not work there. USD/JPY was not the best trade either but at least not as horrible as EUR/USD trade would be.
U.S. Consumer sentiment came out a bit better than expected, not enough to enter a trade.
Let's now talk about Monday.
1. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing coming out. If it comes out at -40 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move. If it comes out at -12 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but it might be an opportunity to make a few pips. Do not overlaverage yourself on this, however.
2. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. A deviation of 1.0 may work on USD/JPY either at the time of the release or 15 minutes later when the stock market opens but I am not going to trade it.
That's all for Monday.
U.S. Retail Sales came out lower and USD/JPY moved down by over 20 pips but then it reversed. One thing for sure, I did say not to trade it on EUR/USD or other pairs, and surely it did not work there. USD/JPY was not the best trade either but at least not as horrible as EUR/USD trade would be.
U.S. Consumer sentiment came out a bit better than expected, not enough to enter a trade.
Let's now talk about Monday.
1. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing coming out. If it comes out at -40 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move. If it comes out at -12 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but it might be an opportunity to make a few pips. Do not overlaverage yourself on this, however.
2. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. A deviation of 1.0 may work on USD/JPY either at the time of the release or 15 minutes later when the stock market opens but I am not going to trade it.
That's all for Monday.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Today's Signal
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (Core). It is expected to come out at -1.2%. This is not as hot report as it used to be but we might see 30 pips spike on USD/JPY if it deviates by 0.5. Therefore, if it comes out at -1.7% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move; if it comes out at -0.7% or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. Do not trade it on other pairs than USD/JPY because currently it is tradable on USD/JPY only. I do not recommend trading against it because last month it would work whereas two months ago it did not work at all. That basically means that it can either move even more or retrace and go the other way. Probably right before the report we would have much clearer situation based on technicals what to do; I cannot tell you that now.
Then at 9:55 a.m. we will have Consumer Sentiment. I am not going to trade this report. If anything, maybe a huge positive surprise would move USD/JPY, something like +10 deviation, but even that can be very risky. I am making enough money with more reliable reports so I am going to skip this one.
That would be all for Friday
Then at 9:55 a.m. we will have Consumer Sentiment. I am not going to trade this report. If anything, maybe a huge positive surprise would move USD/JPY, something like +10 deviation, but even that can be very risky. I am making enough money with more reliable reports so I am going to skip this one.
That would be all for Friday
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Today's Signal
Let's talk about Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Claimant Count Change. It is expected to come out at 40K. It is not tradable with the SNW, in my opinion. Because of BOE Inflation report coming out an hour later, I would skip this report at all.
2. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have BOE Inflation report. This is not for beginners, and if you want to trade it, please watch the video for more detailed information.
3. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 a.m. we will have Retail Sales headline coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.4. If it comes out at 1.0% or better and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other, if it comes out at -0.2% or more negative and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move as well. Be very careful because spreads tend to be very high for NZ reports.
That's all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Claimant Count Change. It is expected to come out at 40K. It is not tradable with the SNW, in my opinion. Because of BOE Inflation report coming out an hour later, I would skip this report at all.
2. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have BOE Inflation report. This is not for beginners, and if you want to trade it, please watch the video for more detailed information.
3. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 a.m. we will have Retail Sales headline coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.4. If it comes out at 1.0% or better and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other, if it comes out at -0.2% or more negative and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move as well. Be very careful because spreads tend to be very high for NZ reports.
That's all for Wednesday.
MAJOR HEADLINES
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
* US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -50 vs. -49 expected
* Australia Nov. Westpac Consumer Confidence out at 4.3%
* Australia Q3 Wage Cost Index rose 4.1% YoY vs. 4.2% expected
* China Oct. Retail Sales rose 22.0% YoY as expected.
* Japan Oct. Consumer Confidence out at 29.8 vs. 29.5 and 31.8 in Sep.
Events Today:
* UK Oct. Jobless Claims Change (0930)
* UK Sep. Average Earnings (0930)
* UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (0930)
* EuroZone Sep. Industrial Production (1000)
* US Treasury Secretary Paulson to Speak (1530)
* New Zealand Oct. Business PMI (2130)
* New Zealand Sep. Retail Sales (2145)
* Japan Oct. Domestic CGPI (2350)
* China Oct. Industrial Production (0200)
Market Comment:
The EUR certainly received no support from a better than expected ZEW survey yesterday (-53.5 vs. -63 expected) as the focus on continued risk aversion spelled trouble for the single currency and EURUSD and EURJPY posted new two-week lows late yesterday and overnight, though these lows haven't held into the early part of the European session today. The EU's Juncker was also out with extremely dovish talk that helped talk EURGBP down from new highs set yesterday. The inability to hold new momentum-style breaks across markets suggests some of the energy is coming out of the market. One reason yesterday's moves may have been a bit hesitant yesterday was that the US bond market was closed yesterday for veteran's day.
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One sign of the inability of markets to work up a sustainable good mood was yesterday's announcement from Fannie Mae of new measures aimed at stemming foreclosures on delinquent mortgage holders. The announcement triggered a sharp rally in equity indices yesterday that had the usual effect of weakening the USD and JPY, but the rally was quickly erased within an hour. The way that these rally attempts are quickly erased is a sign that risk aversion predominates, though the bears also seem to have a hard time sustaining momentum. Today, Mr. Paulson will be out speaking about the TARP plan, and we are likely to see him announcing new directions for the plan and a request for more money, as the government has already burned through most of the first $350 billion of the $700 billion package, and Congress has a lot more to say about how the remaining half of the fund is to be spent. Many are looking toward Detroit as lawmakers seem to be gearing up for big bailout of the US automakers, who are quickly burning through their remaining cash reserves. Whatever Paulson's announcement, today may offer another opportunity to see a weak attempt at a rally in risk appetite that could be worth fading.
Hopes are growing that this weekend's G20 meeting will see some kind of new and large stimulus plan aimed at the developing economies. This morning's FT is trumpeting World Bank plans to stimulate developing countries to the tune of $100 billion. It is hard to imagine the G20 taking dramatic new steps with a US president in the final two months of his term, though some kind of loan package is inevitable. Funding for further programs will be tough to come by for developing nations in the future as all major powers are hard pressed on the domestic front and generosity could fade with tough times at home. Some speculate that funds for a bailout could come from Chinese and other sovereign wealth funds, but as we saw from the size of the recent Chinese stimulus package: these funds may be seen as domestic spending warchests more than anything in this cycle of economic weakness. Any broader efforts by the G20 will have to await a president Obama, and the G20 is set to reconvene by late February.
* US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -50 vs. -49 expected
* Australia Nov. Westpac Consumer Confidence out at 4.3%
* Australia Q3 Wage Cost Index rose 4.1% YoY vs. 4.2% expected
* China Oct. Retail Sales rose 22.0% YoY as expected.
* Japan Oct. Consumer Confidence out at 29.8 vs. 29.5 and 31.8 in Sep.
Events Today:
* UK Oct. Jobless Claims Change (0930)
* UK Sep. Average Earnings (0930)
* UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (0930)
* EuroZone Sep. Industrial Production (1000)
* US Treasury Secretary Paulson to Speak (1530)
* New Zealand Oct. Business PMI (2130)
* New Zealand Sep. Retail Sales (2145)
* Japan Oct. Domestic CGPI (2350)
* China Oct. Industrial Production (0200)
Market Comment:
The EUR certainly received no support from a better than expected ZEW survey yesterday (-53.5 vs. -63 expected) as the focus on continued risk aversion spelled trouble for the single currency and EURUSD and EURJPY posted new two-week lows late yesterday and overnight, though these lows haven't held into the early part of the European session today. The EU's Juncker was also out with extremely dovish talk that helped talk EURGBP down from new highs set yesterday. The inability to hold new momentum-style breaks across markets suggests some of the energy is coming out of the market. One reason yesterday's moves may have been a bit hesitant yesterday was that the US bond market was closed yesterday for veteran's day.
-
One sign of the inability of markets to work up a sustainable good mood was yesterday's announcement from Fannie Mae of new measures aimed at stemming foreclosures on delinquent mortgage holders. The announcement triggered a sharp rally in equity indices yesterday that had the usual effect of weakening the USD and JPY, but the rally was quickly erased within an hour. The way that these rally attempts are quickly erased is a sign that risk aversion predominates, though the bears also seem to have a hard time sustaining momentum. Today, Mr. Paulson will be out speaking about the TARP plan, and we are likely to see him announcing new directions for the plan and a request for more money, as the government has already burned through most of the first $350 billion of the $700 billion package, and Congress has a lot more to say about how the remaining half of the fund is to be spent. Many are looking toward Detroit as lawmakers seem to be gearing up for big bailout of the US automakers, who are quickly burning through their remaining cash reserves. Whatever Paulson's announcement, today may offer another opportunity to see a weak attempt at a rally in risk appetite that could be worth fading.
Hopes are growing that this weekend's G20 meeting will see some kind of new and large stimulus plan aimed at the developing economies. This morning's FT is trumpeting World Bank plans to stimulate developing countries to the tune of $100 billion. It is hard to imagine the G20 taking dramatic new steps with a US president in the final two months of his term, though some kind of loan package is inevitable. Funding for further programs will be tough to come by for developing nations in the future as all major powers are hard pressed on the domestic front and generosity could fade with tough times at home. Some speculate that funds for a bailout could come from Chinese and other sovereign wealth funds, but as we saw from the size of the recent Chinese stimulus package: these funds may be seen as domestic spending warchests more than anything in this cycle of economic weakness. Any broader efforts by the G20 will have to await a president Obama, and the G20 is set to reconvene by late February.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Events Today
Events Today:
Norway Oct. CPI and Producer Prices (0900)
UK Oct. PPI Input/Output (0930)
Canada Oct. Housing Starts (1315)
Canada Sep. New Housing Price Index (1330)
US Treasury's Kashkari to discuss TARP (1500)
Japan Sep. Current Account (2350)
UK Oct. BRC Retail Sales Monitor (0001)
UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance (0001)
Australia Oct. NAB Business Confidence (0030)
China Oct. CPI (0200)
Market Comment:
China gets serious on stimulation
China announced a massive CNY 4 trillion stimulus package over the weekend as the global economic growth deceleration is finally hitting the Chinese growth miracle with full force. This enormous package represents some 20% of Chinese GDP, making the puny 1-2% stimulus package ideas being bandied about by US lawmakers look puny in comparison. Some have suggested that growth rates of 5-6% would represent a truly hard landing for the China due to its historic shift to an industrial economy that creates massive pressures to increase the numbers of jobs as the population migrates from the countryside to the city. China will be sorely pressed to avoid this hard landing due to the imbalances in its economy that focus so heavily on production rather than consumption. For now, markets have decided that this is good news, but the rally in risk it has brought on is unlikely to last beyond the shortest term.
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Heavy supply in new US treasuries this week
This week will be an interesting one for measuring the demand for US Treasuries, as the US treasury will auction some $55 billion of securities this week, the most in one week since 2004. The amount of issuance arriving in the coming year is mind-boggling and one wonders where the buyers will come from. If yields begin to rise due to insufficient treasury demand while economic data remains weak, this could add to pressure on the markets. Keep an eye on the US 10-year note futures, therefore. Signs of strong demand would be USD bullish.
CAD: still on borrowed time
The Canadian employment data for October released on Friday was far better than expected, but as we discussed, the Canadian economy has historically been closely coupled with the US economy and will not escape its growing negative drag. USDCAD should eventually try back toward the 1.3000 area and we would expect the pair to find support in the 1.1500-1.1800 area.
Norway Oct. CPI and Producer Prices (0900)
UK Oct. PPI Input/Output (0930)
Canada Oct. Housing Starts (1315)
Canada Sep. New Housing Price Index (1330)
US Treasury's Kashkari to discuss TARP (1500)
Japan Sep. Current Account (2350)
UK Oct. BRC Retail Sales Monitor (0001)
UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance (0001)
Australia Oct. NAB Business Confidence (0030)
China Oct. CPI (0200)
Market Comment:
China gets serious on stimulation
China announced a massive CNY 4 trillion stimulus package over the weekend as the global economic growth deceleration is finally hitting the Chinese growth miracle with full force. This enormous package represents some 20% of Chinese GDP, making the puny 1-2% stimulus package ideas being bandied about by US lawmakers look puny in comparison. Some have suggested that growth rates of 5-6% would represent a truly hard landing for the China due to its historic shift to an industrial economy that creates massive pressures to increase the numbers of jobs as the population migrates from the countryside to the city. China will be sorely pressed to avoid this hard landing due to the imbalances in its economy that focus so heavily on production rather than consumption. For now, markets have decided that this is good news, but the rally in risk it has brought on is unlikely to last beyond the shortest term.
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Heavy supply in new US treasuries this week
This week will be an interesting one for measuring the demand for US Treasuries, as the US treasury will auction some $55 billion of securities this week, the most in one week since 2004. The amount of issuance arriving in the coming year is mind-boggling and one wonders where the buyers will come from. If yields begin to rise due to insufficient treasury demand while economic data remains weak, this could add to pressure on the markets. Keep an eye on the US 10-year note futures, therefore. Signs of strong demand would be USD bullish.
CAD: still on borrowed time
The Canadian employment data for October released on Friday was far better than expected, but as we discussed, the Canadian economy has historically been closely coupled with the US economy and will not escape its growing negative drag. USDCAD should eventually try back toward the 1.3000 area and we would expect the pair to find support in the 1.1500-1.1800 area.
Nov 11 Forex Signal
Let's talk about Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, November 11th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment. It is expected to come out at -63 but there are some estimates as low as -81. Because of so big range of expectations and two failed reports past two months, maybe it would be a good idea to enter after the spike with reverse triggers. Here is an example that might be workable: if it comes out at -55 or less negative, this might be a selling opportunity on EUR/USD right after the price pops up (so you would get better price to sell). If it comes out at -70 or more negative, I would buy EUR/USD after the price would go down so I would get much discounted price. This is not a spike trading, this is scalping, so don't put a lot of money on this. As far as spike trading is concerned, I would try to enter a sell trade on EUR/USD, with SNW, if the number comes out at -80 or more negative, and if spreads are not crazy but I would exit ASAP (as soon as possible) because this would probably reverse anyway. If it comes out at -49 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD with SNW, if spreads are not crazy, and also exit ASAP.:)
1. Tuesday, November 11th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment. It is expected to come out at -63 but there are some estimates as low as -81. Because of so big range of expectations and two failed reports past two months, maybe it would be a good idea to enter after the spike with reverse triggers. Here is an example that might be workable: if it comes out at -55 or less negative, this might be a selling opportunity on EUR/USD right after the price pops up (so you would get better price to sell). If it comes out at -70 or more negative, I would buy EUR/USD after the price would go down so I would get much discounted price. This is not a spike trading, this is scalping, so don't put a lot of money on this. As far as spike trading is concerned, I would try to enter a sell trade on EUR/USD, with SNW, if the number comes out at -80 or more negative, and if spreads are not crazy but I would exit ASAP (as soon as possible) because this would probably reverse anyway. If it comes out at -49 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD with SNW, if spreads are not crazy, and also exit ASAP.:)
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Todays' Signal
Hi there my Forex friend
Let's talk about Monday first.
We had two reports coming out.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. It came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.
Then we had Australian Interest rate statement. They did cut the rates, by more than it was expected, and we had a nice price action. I made a lot of pips on a spike trading with the Secret News Weapon software. In fact, I banked 101 pips profit on EUR/AUD but even AUD/USD spiked very nicely. The key to the success was to take the profit as soon as possible (which I did) before the price retraced. Unfortunately, I wish I entered a trade again when it retraced nearly to the pre-release level. Well, I guess 101 pips is good enough for me, however. Sir Pips also gave a trade, good for 22 and 16 pips. The good thing about Sir Pips trades is you are not subject to crazy spreads, and probably you can trade with him using most brokers. Yes, it was less pips than with SNW but you cannot go bankrupt when you make a profit, right?
I cannot give any advice what brokers work with the Secret News Weapon software because it varies from user to user. It all depends on your computer you have, on your internet connection, even on your trade size and account number. I hear very good and very bad reviews about the same broker, that is some people are able to enter a trade whereas some others are not. The best what I can advice is to try a few brokers and see how it goes.
On Tuesday there is nothing to trade at all, sorry guys, no signal for Tuesday. Check our next signal
Let's talk about Monday first.
We had two reports coming out.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. It came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.
Then we had Australian Interest rate statement. They did cut the rates, by more than it was expected, and we had a nice price action. I made a lot of pips on a spike trading with the Secret News Weapon software. In fact, I banked 101 pips profit on EUR/AUD but even AUD/USD spiked very nicely. The key to the success was to take the profit as soon as possible (which I did) before the price retraced. Unfortunately, I wish I entered a trade again when it retraced nearly to the pre-release level. Well, I guess 101 pips is good enough for me, however. Sir Pips also gave a trade, good for 22 and 16 pips. The good thing about Sir Pips trades is you are not subject to crazy spreads, and probably you can trade with him using most brokers. Yes, it was less pips than with SNW but you cannot go bankrupt when you make a profit, right?
I cannot give any advice what brokers work with the Secret News Weapon software because it varies from user to user. It all depends on your computer you have, on your internet connection, even on your trade size and account number. I hear very good and very bad reviews about the same broker, that is some people are able to enter a trade whereas some others are not. The best what I can advice is to try a few brokers and see how it goes.
On Tuesday there is nothing to trade at all, sorry guys, no signal for Tuesday. Check our next signal
Monday, November 3, 2008
November 3rd signal
On Monday there are two reports that are worthy mentioning.
1. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. Because expectations are kind of wide on this report, I would use bigger triggers here. If it comes out at 39.0 or less, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 43.5 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but if it is going to deviate, there might be some room to make a few pips.
2. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest rate. It is expected to come out at 5.50%, down from 6.00%. This is very early to say how to trade it because the expectations may change but it seems if it comes out at 5.75% or 6.00%, this would be good for the Australian dollar because they did not cut as much as it was widely expected so it would be buy signal for AUD/USD, and please take your profits rather quickly. I would be careful with +0.25 trigger, however, because it is still a cut on interest rates.. If it comes out at 5.50%, then it is hard to say how the price would react so it is no trade. If it comes out at 5.25% or lower, than it would be bad for the Australian dollar, and I would sell AUD/USD and expect 50 pips move. I would take profits rather quickly, just in case.
That would be all for Monday.
1. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. Because expectations are kind of wide on this report, I would use bigger triggers here. If it comes out at 39.0 or less, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 43.5 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but if it is going to deviate, there might be some room to make a few pips.
2. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest rate. It is expected to come out at 5.50%, down from 6.00%. This is very early to say how to trade it because the expectations may change but it seems if it comes out at 5.75% or 6.00%, this would be good for the Australian dollar because they did not cut as much as it was widely expected so it would be buy signal for AUD/USD, and please take your profits rather quickly. I would be careful with +0.25 trigger, however, because it is still a cut on interest rates.. If it comes out at 5.50%, then it is hard to say how the price would react so it is no trade. If it comes out at 5.25% or lower, than it would be bad for the Australian dollar, and I would sell AUD/USD and expect 50 pips move. I would take profits rather quickly, just in case.
That would be all for Monday.
Friday, October 31, 2008
FOREX SIGNAL
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, October 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Personal Income m/m and Personal Spending m/m. In order to trade it, you need to have +/- 1.0 deviation on at least one of them, and the other one cannot be conflicting. If one of them deviates by +1.0 and the other one is not conflicting, USD/JPY should go up by 30 pips. If one of them deviates by -1.0 and the other one is not conflicting, USD/JPY should go down by 30 pips. Because two reports need to be analyzed, I will personally skip them since it would be too tricky to set it up on SNW but if you want to take a risk, this may actually work pretty well.
2. Friday, October 31st, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 9:42 a.m. we will have Chicago PMI. This is tradable only if you can get the number at 9:42, not 9:45, and since this report cannot be traded from SNW, I will not trade it. Due to current market conditions, this report can be traded if there is a big surprise so minimum trigger here would be +/- 5.0. A deviation of +5.0 or more should send USD/JPY up a bit, and a deviation of -5.0 or more negative should send USD/JPY down a bit.
That would be all for this week.
1. Friday, October 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Personal Income m/m and Personal Spending m/m. In order to trade it, you need to have +/- 1.0 deviation on at least one of them, and the other one cannot be conflicting. If one of them deviates by +1.0 and the other one is not conflicting, USD/JPY should go up by 30 pips. If one of them deviates by -1.0 and the other one is not conflicting, USD/JPY should go down by 30 pips. Because two reports need to be analyzed, I will personally skip them since it would be too tricky to set it up on SNW but if you want to take a risk, this may actually work pretty well.
2. Friday, October 31st, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 9:42 a.m. we will have Chicago PMI. This is tradable only if you can get the number at 9:42, not 9:45, and since this report cannot be traded from SNW, I will not trade it. Due to current market conditions, this report can be traded if there is a big surprise so minimum trigger here would be +/- 5.0. A deviation of +5.0 or more should send USD/JPY up a bit, and a deviation of -5.0 or more negative should send USD/JPY down a bit.
That would be all for this week.
Events Today
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Events Today:
* EuroZone Oct. CPI Estimate (1000)
* EuroZone Sep. Unemployment Rate (1000)
* Switzerland Oct. KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (1030)
* Canada Aug. GDP (1230)
* US Sep. Personal Income and Spending (1230)
* US Sep. PCE Core (1230)
* US Oct. Chicago PMI (1345)
* US Oct. Final University of Michigan Confidence (1400)
Events Today:
* EuroZone Oct. CPI Estimate (1000)
* EuroZone Sep. Unemployment Rate (1000)
* Switzerland Oct. KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (1030)
* Canada Aug. GDP (1230)
* US Sep. Personal Income and Spending (1230)
* US Sep. PCE Core (1230)
* US Oct. Chicago PMI (1345)
* US Oct. Final University of Michigan Confidence (1400)
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Events Today
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Events Today:
* Germany Oct. Unemployment Rate and Change (0855)
* Norway Oct. Unemployment Rate (0900)
* Norway Sep. Retail Sales (0900)
* EuroZone Oct. Confidence Surveys (1000)
* Canada Sep. Industrial Product Price and Raw Materials Prices (1230)
* US Q3 Preliminary GDP estimate (1230)
* US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (1230)
* US Fed's Kroszner to Speak (1230)
* US Fed's Yellen to Speak (1915)
* Japan Oct. Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (2315)
* Japan Sep. Jobless Rate (2330)
* Japan Sep. Household Spending (2330)
* Japan Oct. CPI (2330)
* UK Oct. GfK Consumer Confidence (0001)
* Australia RBA's Debelle to Speak (0030)
* Australia Sep. HIA New Home Sales (0100)
* Japan BoJ Target Rate (no time given)
* Japan Sep. Housing Starts (0500)
Events Today:
* Germany Oct. Unemployment Rate and Change (0855)
* Norway Oct. Unemployment Rate (0900)
* Norway Sep. Retail Sales (0900)
* EuroZone Oct. Confidence Surveys (1000)
* Canada Sep. Industrial Product Price and Raw Materials Prices (1230)
* US Q3 Preliminary GDP estimate (1230)
* US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (1230)
* US Fed's Kroszner to Speak (1230)
* US Fed's Yellen to Speak (1915)
* Japan Oct. Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (2315)
* Japan Sep. Jobless Rate (2330)
* Japan Sep. Household Spending (2330)
* Japan Oct. CPI (2330)
* UK Oct. GfK Consumer Confidence (0001)
* Australia RBA's Debelle to Speak (0030)
* Australia Sep. HIA New Home Sales (0100)
* Japan BoJ Target Rate (no time given)
* Japan Sep. Housing Starts (0500)
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
October 29th
. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods Orders m/m which is expected to come out at -1.5%. Last month it came out 2.5 below expectations and we saw 40 pips move on USD/JPY. However, we this time will also have Interest Rate decision so the price action might be a bit weird. Nevertheless, if it comes out at 0.1% or higher, I would probably give a try and buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -3.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips as well. It would be good if the headline number is not conflicting.
2. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 9:00 a.m. we will have Interest Rate out of Norway. Be careful - very high spreads may happen! If they cut by 0.50% from 5.25% to 4.75%, there is not much you can do as it is widely expected. If they cut only to 5.00% or hold the rates unchanged at 5.25%, you may try to sell USD/NOK or EUR/NOK, looking for 400 or more pips. If they cut the rates by 0.75% or more, I would buy EUR/NOK or USD/NOK and expect 400 pips (or more) move as well.
3. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:15 p.m. we will have U.S. Interest Rate statement, and over half of economists expected them to cut the rates by 0.50% from 1.50% to 1.00%. About 25% of economists expect them to cut the rates by 0.25% from 1.50% to 1.25%, and around 20% of them are expecting them to keep the rates unchanged. A small number of economists expect them to cut the rates by 0.75%. If they cut the rates to 1.00%, it would be a no trade. If they cut the rates by 0.25% from 1.50% to 1.25%, I would sell EUR/JPY, looking for 100 to 300 pips move. If they don't cut the rates, it should be a very good sell trade on EUR/JPY. If they cut the rates by 0.75% from 1.50% to 0.75%, I would buy EUR/JPY and expect a nice move. Please watch the video for more, VERY IMPORTANT details.
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods Orders m/m which is expected to come out at -1.5%. Last month it came out 2.5 below expectations and we saw 40 pips move on USD/JPY. However, we this time will also have Interest Rate decision so the price action might be a bit weird. Nevertheless, if it comes out at 0.1% or higher, I would probably give a try and buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -3.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips as well. It would be good if the headline number is not conflicting.
2. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 9:00 a.m. we will have Interest Rate out of Norway. Be careful - very high spreads may happen! If they cut by 0.50% from 5.25% to 4.75%, there is not much you can do as it is widely expected. If they cut only to 5.00% or hold the rates unchanged at 5.25%, you may try to sell USD/NOK or EUR/NOK, looking for 400 or more pips. If they cut the rates by 0.75% or more, I would buy EUR/NOK or USD/NOK and expect 400 pips (or more) move as well.
3. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:15 p.m. we will have U.S. Interest Rate statement, and over half of economists expected them to cut the rates by 0.50% from 1.50% to 1.00%. About 25% of economists expect them to cut the rates by 0.25% from 1.50% to 1.25%, and around 20% of them are expecting them to keep the rates unchanged. A small number of economists expect them to cut the rates by 0.75%. If they cut the rates to 1.00%, it would be a no trade. If they cut the rates by 0.25% from 1.50% to 1.25%, I would sell EUR/JPY, looking for 100 to 300 pips move. If they don't cut the rates, it should be a very good sell trade on EUR/JPY. If they cut the rates by 0.75% from 1.50% to 0.75%, I would buy EUR/JPY and expect a nice move. Please watch the video for more, VERY IMPORTANT details.
Monday, October 27, 2008
October 27th signal
Let's talk about Monday.
1. Monday, October 27th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German Ifo Business Climate and it is expected to come out at 91.0 or 91.2 although there is quite wide range of expectations but most people expect lower number. Therefore, we need to use bigger lower trigger and we can try to use smaller upper trigger. Last month this report failed but chances are good this month it may work quite OK. I would strongly recommend to be very careful but I will be trading it myself. If it comes out at 88.9, I would sell EUR/USD and try to make some pips on the spike. If it comes out at 92.5 or higher, I would buy EUR/USD. I would rush to take profits on this because the market is weird and it is hard to predict how the market is going to react on it. Because there are still 5 hours to this report, it is hard to say how exactly approach this report because the price level right before will matter a lot. Also, if it comes out slightly lower than expected, it is very possible the price will spike down a bit and then go the other way so trading against the number also may work.
2. Monday, October 27th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. New Home Sales. I cannot give triggers for this now because current price level will matter a lot. If you are new to Forex, I would skip this report.
That would be all for Monday.
1. Monday, October 27th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German Ifo Business Climate and it is expected to come out at 91.0 or 91.2 although there is quite wide range of expectations but most people expect lower number. Therefore, we need to use bigger lower trigger and we can try to use smaller upper trigger. Last month this report failed but chances are good this month it may work quite OK. I would strongly recommend to be very careful but I will be trading it myself. If it comes out at 88.9, I would sell EUR/USD and try to make some pips on the spike. If it comes out at 92.5 or higher, I would buy EUR/USD. I would rush to take profits on this because the market is weird and it is hard to predict how the market is going to react on it. Because there are still 5 hours to this report, it is hard to say how exactly approach this report because the price level right before will matter a lot. Also, if it comes out slightly lower than expected, it is very possible the price will spike down a bit and then go the other way so trading against the number also may work.
2. Monday, October 27th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. New Home Sales. I cannot give triggers for this now because current price level will matter a lot. If you are new to Forex, I would skip this report.
That would be all for Monday.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Friday October 24th
1. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP q/q. It is expected to come out at -0.2%. Because GBP/USD is on such strong down trend, probably you can just short GBP/USD and make money. Therefore, if it comes out at -0.3% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. If it comes out at -0.1% or 0.0%, I would also sell but on the spike up (if any). That it, I would wait for the spike up, and try to short at better price. I think because of such strong down trend we will see a very short living spike up should GDP comes out at -0.1 or 0.0. If it is positive, I would be more careful, perhaps stay away.
2. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m which is expected to come out at 0.3%. I still think it is better to trade against the spike on higher CPI here. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher and other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy USD/CAD right after USD/CAD spikes down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would enter long on USD/CAD on a spike and I would not trade against it.
3. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (10:0 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales m/m. Because of all the other problems, I don't think people would care about this report. However, if it comes out much better, and you are around your trading station, you may to sell EUR/USD or GBP/USD as an excuse to enter a short trade. Unfortunately, it is hard to say what USD will do in the next few hours so such decision must be made right before the report.
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP q/q. It is expected to come out at -0.2%. Because GBP/USD is on such strong down trend, probably you can just short GBP/USD and make money. Therefore, if it comes out at -0.3% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. If it comes out at -0.1% or 0.0%, I would also sell but on the spike up (if any). That it, I would wait for the spike up, and try to short at better price. I think because of such strong down trend we will see a very short living spike up should GDP comes out at -0.1 or 0.0. If it is positive, I would be more careful, perhaps stay away.
2. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m which is expected to come out at 0.3%. I still think it is better to trade against the spike on higher CPI here. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher and other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy USD/CAD right after USD/CAD spikes down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would enter long on USD/CAD on a spike and I would not trade against it.
3. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (10:0 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales m/m. Because of all the other problems, I don't think people would care about this report. However, if it comes out much better, and you are around your trading station, you may to sell EUR/USD or GBP/USD as an excuse to enter a short trade. Unfortunately, it is hard to say what USD will do in the next few hours so such decision must be made right before the report.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Thursday October 23rd
Thursday, October 23rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Thursday at 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. It is hard to say if this is going to give a reliable move, and based on recent past experience I would be very careful with it. If you look at chart from August, we had 60 pips spike up on 1.0 deviation, but it was a very short living move and it retraced by 100%. Because GBP/USD is on extremely strong selling trend, perhaps buying at the spike might be extremely risky because traders may take advantage of the better price to sell again. It will also depend on where the price is right before the report. I think +/- 0.8 deviation should be enough to enter a spike trade if you have SNW but you must exit within seconds, regardless if you are on profit or loss. If it deviates by +0.8, I think selling at the top of the spike on GBP/USD may work well. If it deviates by -0.8, selling on the spike may work OK but I would be careful with buying against the spike. Perhaps small position would be OK to give a try and make a lunch money, but I really mean a small position because I don't feel like I want to buy GBP/USD, even at the discounted price. Obviously if the deviation is crazy, trading against the spike would be too risky and it is better to make some money on the spike and stay away from trading against the spike. Again, I will personally check the price level right before the report and then determinate what is the best strategy. Also, watch out for possible leaks - recently U.K. reports tend to move before the official announcement.
That's all for Thursday.
On Thursday at 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. It is hard to say if this is going to give a reliable move, and based on recent past experience I would be very careful with it. If you look at chart from August, we had 60 pips spike up on 1.0 deviation, but it was a very short living move and it retraced by 100%. Because GBP/USD is on extremely strong selling trend, perhaps buying at the spike might be extremely risky because traders may take advantage of the better price to sell again. It will also depend on where the price is right before the report. I think +/- 0.8 deviation should be enough to enter a spike trade if you have SNW but you must exit within seconds, regardless if you are on profit or loss. If it deviates by +0.8, I think selling at the top of the spike on GBP/USD may work well. If it deviates by -0.8, selling on the spike may work OK but I would be careful with buying against the spike. Perhaps small position would be OK to give a try and make a lunch money, but I really mean a small position because I don't feel like I want to buy GBP/USD, even at the discounted price. Obviously if the deviation is crazy, trading against the spike would be too risky and it is better to make some money on the spike and stay away from trading against the spike. Again, I will personally check the price level right before the report and then determinate what is the best strategy. Also, watch out for possible leaks - recently U.K. reports tend to move before the official announcement.
That's all for Thursday.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Friday, October 17th,
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, October 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Housing Starts. This may move the market a bit but I would not put a lot of hopes on it. I want to see a nice move on it before I start recommending trading it.
2. Friday, October 17th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment coming out. This might bring 20 pips if the trigger is hit although this might be a slow mover either. If this comes out at 59 or lower, you may sell USD/JPY. On the other hand, if it comes out at 71 or higher, you may buy USD/JPY.
1. Friday, October 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Housing Starts. This may move the market a bit but I would not put a lot of hopes on it. I want to see a nice move on it before I start recommending trading it.
2. Friday, October 17th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment coming out. This might bring 20 pips if the trigger is hit although this might be a slow mover either. If this comes out at 59 or lower, you may sell USD/JPY. On the other hand, if it comes out at 71 or higher, you may buy USD/JPY.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Signal for 16th October
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, October 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI Core m/m coming out. I would trade USD/JPY on this. If it comes out at 0.3 or higher, and the other numbers are as expected or higher, I would sell USD/JPY SHORTLY AFTER the release. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, and the other numbers are as expected or lower, I would buy USD/JPY SHORTLY AFTER the release. If the trigger is hit, I would expect 30 to 40 pips move.
The other reports such as US TIC, Industrial Production or Philadelphia Fed may move the market a bit but currently I would not trade them
1. Thursday, October 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI Core m/m coming out. I would trade USD/JPY on this. If it comes out at 0.3 or higher, and the other numbers are as expected or higher, I would sell USD/JPY SHORTLY AFTER the release. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, and the other numbers are as expected or lower, I would buy USD/JPY SHORTLY AFTER the release. If the trigger is hit, I would expect 30 to 40 pips move.
The other reports such as US TIC, Industrial Production or Philadelphia Fed may move the market a bit but currently I would not trade them
Friday, October 3, 2008
Signal for 3rd Oct. 2008
Key Risk Events (All times in GMT)
* Norway Sep. PMI (0700)
* Germany Final Sep. Services PMI (0755)
* EuroZone Final Sep. Services PMI (0800)
* UK Sep. Services PMI (0830)
* EuroZone Aug. Retail Sales (0900)
* US Sep. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (1230)
* US Sep. Unemployment Rate (1230)
* US Sep. ISM Non-manufacturing (1400)
Market Comments
EURUSD plummeted to a new 12-month low yesterday as Trichet brought absolutely nothing new to the table and essentially highlighted what everyone is already worrying about: that Europe is incapable of the kind of unified US response to a systemic banking crisis. The clear message after the expected "no change" decision on rates at Trichet's press conference was that the ECB is looking to ease rates at the next meeting. We think they will have eased at least 50 basis points by the end of the year. Mr. Trichet changed his language on perceived inflation risks and had a more dour view on growth in line with what is now painfully obvious in the rear-view mirror for the EuroZone economy. In the background, IG Metall is looking for an 8% pay increase just as Germany is performing a spectacular crash landing...it will be interesting to see what kind of agreement emerges for these workers on the other side of negotiations.
It was almost humorous to see the plunge in EURUSD accelerating most when it crossed the wires that a "rate cut had been discussed". Shock! Awe! Really, folks - if Trichet and company hadn't at least discussed a rate cut, then you would have to wonder if they lived on the same planet as the rest of us. While EURUSD did post new lows on the day, the action later in the day quieted and overnight EURUSD was even rallying up toward the first key resistance area at 1.3885, the old low and the approximate spot where the huge rising trendline from 2002 was broken.
The market fear level remains very high as evidenced by the various credit spreads and other indicators that simply aren't coming down yet. It's rather scary to be headed to another weekend of uncertainty with the TARP vote today (we assume it will be passed - big question is of course the reaction) and a probably very ugly US employment report. Unfortunately, the US employment indicator is a terribly lagging one - with the accelerating weakness already in the pipeline, we fear US unemployment could reach toward 8% next year - which would be the worst since the early 1980's, when the US was still emerging from stagflation. Research report after research report discusses the self-reinforcing aspects of the enormous web of credit dependencies in this situation, including everything from consumer financing to especially local government funding. The basic message is that the latest tightness will cause cutbacks, cutbacks, cutbacks. And every day that credit markets remain so dysfunctional, the belt tightens another notch.
The FX market will likely move along the axis of fear as it has consistently been doing lately. More fear and credit tightness likely equates to a stronger USD and JPY and any dramatic easing in fear levels means that we should all buy EURJPY. Those looking for a lottery ticket might look for a Monday expiry low-delta EURJPY or AUDJPY call if fear spikes even higher after the US employment report...more as an expression of hope that things won't simply continue to get worse in an unmitigated straight line than anything else....we find little reason to hope for positive outcomes here in the short term - but sometimes it's best to fade the fear. Of course, you can also embrace the fear with Monday low-delta EURJPY/AUDJPY puts on any rallies in risk appetite this morning. The spot market should be played with low leverage. Our basic ATR indicator shows that EURUSD is more than 3 x more volatile than it was in July of last year just before the Bear Stearns funds blowup kicked this whole credit crisis in motion.
As always, be careful out there...
Chart: EURGBP
The EUR weakness has become so pronounced that it is now even moving decisively lower versus the British pound, where so much pain had already been priced in. The relative strength in GBP is most likely a result of a deleveraging environment (taking off existing GBP shorts and EUR longs broadly speaking) rather than an expression of confidence in the UK economy, which is a study in slowly unfolding train wrecks. Nonetheless, if the support area just below 0.7800 gives way (this is the flatline support - the 200-day moving average comes in already close to current levels), we wonder if this could open up for a significant test lower toward 0.7600.
* Norway Sep. PMI (0700)
* Germany Final Sep. Services PMI (0755)
* EuroZone Final Sep. Services PMI (0800)
* UK Sep. Services PMI (0830)
* EuroZone Aug. Retail Sales (0900)
* US Sep. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (1230)
* US Sep. Unemployment Rate (1230)
* US Sep. ISM Non-manufacturing (1400)
Market Comments
EURUSD plummeted to a new 12-month low yesterday as Trichet brought absolutely nothing new to the table and essentially highlighted what everyone is already worrying about: that Europe is incapable of the kind of unified US response to a systemic banking crisis. The clear message after the expected "no change" decision on rates at Trichet's press conference was that the ECB is looking to ease rates at the next meeting. We think they will have eased at least 50 basis points by the end of the year. Mr. Trichet changed his language on perceived inflation risks and had a more dour view on growth in line with what is now painfully obvious in the rear-view mirror for the EuroZone economy. In the background, IG Metall is looking for an 8% pay increase just as Germany is performing a spectacular crash landing...it will be interesting to see what kind of agreement emerges for these workers on the other side of negotiations.
It was almost humorous to see the plunge in EURUSD accelerating most when it crossed the wires that a "rate cut had been discussed". Shock! Awe! Really, folks - if Trichet and company hadn't at least discussed a rate cut, then you would have to wonder if they lived on the same planet as the rest of us. While EURUSD did post new lows on the day, the action later in the day quieted and overnight EURUSD was even rallying up toward the first key resistance area at 1.3885, the old low and the approximate spot where the huge rising trendline from 2002 was broken.
The market fear level remains very high as evidenced by the various credit spreads and other indicators that simply aren't coming down yet. It's rather scary to be headed to another weekend of uncertainty with the TARP vote today (we assume it will be passed - big question is of course the reaction) and a probably very ugly US employment report. Unfortunately, the US employment indicator is a terribly lagging one - with the accelerating weakness already in the pipeline, we fear US unemployment could reach toward 8% next year - which would be the worst since the early 1980's, when the US was still emerging from stagflation. Research report after research report discusses the self-reinforcing aspects of the enormous web of credit dependencies in this situation, including everything from consumer financing to especially local government funding. The basic message is that the latest tightness will cause cutbacks, cutbacks, cutbacks. And every day that credit markets remain so dysfunctional, the belt tightens another notch.
The FX market will likely move along the axis of fear as it has consistently been doing lately. More fear and credit tightness likely equates to a stronger USD and JPY and any dramatic easing in fear levels means that we should all buy EURJPY. Those looking for a lottery ticket might look for a Monday expiry low-delta EURJPY or AUDJPY call if fear spikes even higher after the US employment report...more as an expression of hope that things won't simply continue to get worse in an unmitigated straight line than anything else....we find little reason to hope for positive outcomes here in the short term - but sometimes it's best to fade the fear. Of course, you can also embrace the fear with Monday low-delta EURJPY/AUDJPY puts on any rallies in risk appetite this morning. The spot market should be played with low leverage. Our basic ATR indicator shows that EURUSD is more than 3 x more volatile than it was in July of last year just before the Bear Stearns funds blowup kicked this whole credit crisis in motion.
As always, be careful out there...
Chart: EURGBP
The EUR weakness has become so pronounced that it is now even moving decisively lower versus the British pound, where so much pain had already been priced in. The relative strength in GBP is most likely a result of a deleveraging environment (taking off existing GBP shorts and EUR longs broadly speaking) rather than an expression of confidence in the UK economy, which is a study in slowly unfolding train wrecks. Nonetheless, if the support area just below 0.7800 gives way (this is the flatline support - the 200-day moving average comes in already close to current levels), we wonder if this could open up for a significant test lower toward 0.7600.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Forex Signal for Friday 29th
Let's talk about Friday.
Let's talk about friday events.
1. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP m/m coming out as well as Raw
Material Index and some other reports out of Canada. We will also have
a few U.S. reports such as U.S. Core PCE or U.S. Personal Income. For
the afterspike trading: focus first on the U.S. reports. Personal Income
is expected to come out at -0.2%, by the way. If Personal Income comes
out at -0.7% and Personal Spending comes out at -0.3%, I would sell USD/JPY
or buy EUR/USD, and look for 30 pips or so. If either of them comes out
lower by 1.0 and the other one would not conflict, this would also be
a sell signal on USD/JPY or buy on EUR/USD. If U.S. Personal Income comes
out at 0.3% and Personal Spending comes out at 0.7%, this would be buy
on USD/JPY or sell on EUR/USD. Or, if either comes out higher by 1.0,
and the other one is not conflicting, this should work as well. U.S.
Core PCE is not a big deal.
2. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
For the Canadian GDP: 0.5 deviation on the GDP Annualized or 0.2 deviation
on GDP m/m should be enough to move EUR/CAD pretty well. Raw Material index,
when conflicting, can be a problem but other than that, this should be
tradable if you have SNW software. Keep in mind that we might see a very
fast retracement and Canadian GDP is not as hot as it used to be but
I still think this is worthy to give a try (Sir Pips does not agree, well,
time will show...). I cannot access FPA Calendar now to give you a few
examples, but I do remember that USD/CAD may not move at all whereas
EUR/USD can move pretty well. At least this was a case last month,
I believe. I would actually prefer to check charts to make sure 0.2 on
m/m is not too risky to trade but I am not able to do that now. Keep in
mind that EUR/CAD may and usually have higher spread than USD/CAD but
I would really forget about USD/CAD here. Higher GDP is good for the
Canadian dollar so it would be sell on EUR/CAD, and lower GDP is bad
for the Canadian dollar and this would be a buy signal on EUR/CAD. Too
\bad I cannot post this on FPA forum so I am not leaving specific triggers
as I need to work more on this, and I am not able to update emails like
I would be able to update a post on FPA website. If you want to play safe,
you may try 0.3 deviation on GDP m/m and 0.2 trigger would be for more
aggressive traders if they can get fast, know how to exit fast and have
a reasonable spread on EUR/CAD.
3. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:42 we will have Chicago PMI. You can trade it only if you are able
to get the number at 9:42 a.m., NOT 9:45 a.m. If it comes out at 52.0 or
higher, it should be OK to sell GBP/USD or EUR/USD and look for 30 pips
move. If it comes out at 47.9 or lower, this should be OK to buy EUR/USD
or GDP/USD. I would personally want to see at least 3 deviation as I saw
quite high spreads on previous releases and I cannot hook up SNW with that.
That would be all for Friday.
Let's talk about friday events.
1. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP m/m coming out as well as Raw
Material Index and some other reports out of Canada. We will also have
a few U.S. reports such as U.S. Core PCE or U.S. Personal Income. For
the afterspike trading: focus first on the U.S. reports. Personal Income
is expected to come out at -0.2%, by the way. If Personal Income comes
out at -0.7% and Personal Spending comes out at -0.3%, I would sell USD/JPY
or buy EUR/USD, and look for 30 pips or so. If either of them comes out
lower by 1.0 and the other one would not conflict, this would also be
a sell signal on USD/JPY or buy on EUR/USD. If U.S. Personal Income comes
out at 0.3% and Personal Spending comes out at 0.7%, this would be buy
on USD/JPY or sell on EUR/USD. Or, if either comes out higher by 1.0,
and the other one is not conflicting, this should work as well. U.S.
Core PCE is not a big deal.
2. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
For the Canadian GDP: 0.5 deviation on the GDP Annualized or 0.2 deviation
on GDP m/m should be enough to move EUR/CAD pretty well. Raw Material index,
when conflicting, can be a problem but other than that, this should be
tradable if you have SNW software. Keep in mind that we might see a very
fast retracement and Canadian GDP is not as hot as it used to be but
I still think this is worthy to give a try (Sir Pips does not agree, well,
time will show...). I cannot access FPA Calendar now to give you a few
examples, but I do remember that USD/CAD may not move at all whereas
EUR/USD can move pretty well. At least this was a case last month,
I believe. I would actually prefer to check charts to make sure 0.2 on
m/m is not too risky to trade but I am not able to do that now. Keep in
mind that EUR/CAD may and usually have higher spread than USD/CAD but
I would really forget about USD/CAD here. Higher GDP is good for the
Canadian dollar so it would be sell on EUR/CAD, and lower GDP is bad
for the Canadian dollar and this would be a buy signal on EUR/CAD. Too
\bad I cannot post this on FPA forum so I am not leaving specific triggers
as I need to work more on this, and I am not able to update emails like
I would be able to update a post on FPA website. If you want to play safe,
you may try 0.3 deviation on GDP m/m and 0.2 trigger would be for more
aggressive traders if they can get fast, know how to exit fast and have
a reasonable spread on EUR/CAD.
3. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:42 we will have Chicago PMI. You can trade it only if you are able
to get the number at 9:42 a.m., NOT 9:45 a.m. If it comes out at 52.0 or
higher, it should be OK to sell GBP/USD or EUR/USD and look for 30 pips
move. If it comes out at 47.9 or lower, this should be OK to buy EUR/USD
or GDP/USD. I would personally want to see at least 3 deviation as I saw
quite high spreads on previous releases and I cannot hook up SNW with that.
That would be all for Friday.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
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hereby want to change that with the few people that i can reach on to
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Not All Candlestick Reversal Patterns Are Created Equal.
Candlestick Trading For Maximum Profits
Most courses or books on the subject will teach you the signals and maybe a little about using indicators to find a
stock at the bottom or top of a trend. But what they don't tell you that those same signals can happen at any point on
any chart you look at. Just as an example, lets take the bullish engulfing reversal pattern (shown at left). The bullish
engulfing pattern is an extremely powerful reversal signal and most will tell you that. They show illustrated charts that
will demonstrate the bullish engulfing pattern that formed prior to a nice uptrend as it was found at the bottom of the
previous downtrend. Well, it's easy to show you what's happened in the past as if this happens every time a bullish
engulfing pattern forms on a chart! What they don't tell you is, this same pattern can show itself anywhere on a stock
chart...not just at the bottom! Check it out for yourself! Find a candlestick chart of a stock that trends up and down and
see for yourself. You'll find the bullish engulfing pattern in the middle of up trends, tops of trends, down trends and
bottom of trends and only one of those will make you money. The same is true for all candlestick reversal patterns.
The course includes two eBooks. We start from the basics of candlestick charting and work our way to advanced methods of spotting reversal patterns. You will learn:
- Candlestick history to present.
- Candlestick theory.
- Candlestick comparisons.
- Bearish candles.
- Bullish candles.
- Candlestick psychology.
- Candlestick reversal patterns.
- Conditions that enhance reversal pattern signals.
- Reversal pattern psychology.
- All with plenty of illustrated examples and charts!
Once you have studied and learned the written portion of the course we move on to advanced video training. In these
five videos and handbook you will master:
- Reading a candlestick chart.
- Candlestick reversal pattern recognition.
- Market Psychology.
- Candlestick price patterns.
- The candlestick trading system.
- How to apply my candlestick trading system.
- Bullish and bearish trade entry points.
- How to trade my system profitably.
- How to quickly find candlestick trades each day after the market closes.
Much More!
Most courses or books on the subject will teach you the signals and maybe a little about using indicators to find a
stock at the bottom or top of a trend. But what they don't tell you that those same signals can happen at any point on
any chart you look at. Just as an example, lets take the bullish engulfing reversal pattern (shown at left). The bullish
engulfing pattern is an extremely powerful reversal signal and most will tell you that. They show illustrated charts that
will demonstrate the bullish engulfing pattern that formed prior to a nice uptrend as it was found at the bottom of the
previous downtrend. Well, it's easy to show you what's happened in the past as if this happens every time a bullish
engulfing pattern forms on a chart! What they don't tell you is, this same pattern can show itself anywhere on a stock
chart...not just at the bottom! Check it out for yourself! Find a candlestick chart of a stock that trends up and down and
see for yourself. You'll find the bullish engulfing pattern in the middle of up trends, tops of trends, down trends and
bottom of trends and only one of those will make you money. The same is true for all candlestick reversal patterns.
The course includes two eBooks. We start from the basics of candlestick charting and work our way to advanced methods of spotting reversal patterns. You will learn:
- Candlestick history to present.
- Candlestick theory.
- Candlestick comparisons.
- Bearish candles.
- Bullish candles.
- Candlestick psychology.
- Candlestick reversal patterns.
- Conditions that enhance reversal pattern signals.
- Reversal pattern psychology.
- All with plenty of illustrated examples and charts!
Once you have studied and learned the written portion of the course we move on to advanced video training. In these
five videos and handbook you will master:
- Reading a candlestick chart.
- Candlestick reversal pattern recognition.
- Market Psychology.
- Candlestick price patterns.
- The candlestick trading system.
- How to apply my candlestick trading system.
- Bullish and bearish trade entry points.
- How to trade my system profitably.
- How to quickly find candlestick trades each day after the market closes.
Much More!
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Forex Signal for August 28th
Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.
It came out higher than expected by 1.4, from -0.7% expected to 0.7%,
and the headline came out higher as well. In the first minute it moved
by only 10 pips but it was a beginning of the up trend and eventually
USD/JPY moved by 80 pips. It seems it worked better so maybe next time
I will focus more on it.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Prices m/m which is expected
to come out at -1.5%. If it comes out at -2.0% or lower (more negative),
I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other hand, if it
comes out at -1.0% or less negative, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips
move as well.
2. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. 2nd Q GDP Annualized Prelim. Rev. which is
expected to come out at 2.7%. Because this is annualized, I would use 0.4
trigger here. If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and
look for 40 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at 3.1%
or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 40 pips move as well. If we get
a signal, make sure there is no significant conflict with U.S. Initial
obless Claims. Remember, higher IJC is bad for the U.S. dollar (selling
pressure on USD/JPY) and lower IJC is good for the U.S. dollar (buying
pressure on USD/JPY). Also, be careful of a possible whipsaw/reversal
effect as this was doing that before.
That would be all for Thursday.
It came out higher than expected by 1.4, from -0.7% expected to 0.7%,
and the headline came out higher as well. In the first minute it moved
by only 10 pips but it was a beginning of the up trend and eventually
USD/JPY moved by 80 pips. It seems it worked better so maybe next time
I will focus more on it.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Prices m/m which is expected
to come out at -1.5%. If it comes out at -2.0% or lower (more negative),
I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other hand, if it
comes out at -1.0% or less negative, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips
move as well.
2. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. 2nd Q GDP Annualized Prelim. Rev. which is
expected to come out at 2.7%. Because this is annualized, I would use 0.4
trigger here. If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and
look for 40 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at 3.1%
or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 40 pips move as well. If we get
a signal, make sure there is no significant conflict with U.S. Initial
obless Claims. Remember, higher IJC is bad for the U.S. dollar (selling
pressure on USD/JPY) and lower IJC is good for the U.S. dollar (buying
pressure on USD/JPY). Also, be careful of a possible whipsaw/reversal
effect as this was doing that before.
That would be all for Thursday.
Forex Trading Signal 08/27/08 - Today
Let's talk about Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods. Last month we had a pretty good price action on USD/JPY but nothing impressive on EUR/USD or GDP/USD so I still don't trust this report enough to put any real money on it. Even with that great deviation we had last month, usually half of the time it works great and the other half of the time not so great. If the price is just about to go one or the other way and this report deviates same way, market can use it as an excuse to jump into a trade. This, however, would require you to do some analysis right before the report because as of right now I am not able to tell you which way the price wants to go. The London session may and probably will move currencies one or the other way so most likely the price will be at the other level right before the report. If you are new, skip it. Remember, you don't have to follow what we write here so if you want to trade it, go ahead. I will not be trading it.
That would be all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods. Last month we had a pretty good price action on USD/JPY but nothing impressive on EUR/USD or GDP/USD so I still don't trust this report enough to put any real money on it. Even with that great deviation we had last month, usually half of the time it works great and the other half of the time not so great. If the price is just about to go one or the other way and this report deviates same way, market can use it as an excuse to jump into a trade. This, however, would require you to do some analysis right before the report because as of right now I am not able to tell you which way the price wants to go. The London session may and probably will move currencies one or the other way so most likely the price will be at the other level right before the report. If you are new, skip it. Remember, you don't have to follow what we write here so if you want to trade it, go ahead. I will not be trading it.
That would be all for Wednesday.
Major Pairs at Key Levels
Dollar's rally is still being held by key levels in against some major currencies. GBP/USD recovers after hitting 1.83
level, AUD/USD is drawing support from 0.85. USD/CHF is still struggling around 1.1. Momentum in EUR/USD is not
convincing too. Dollar is struggling to find follow through buying with oil still held inside range of 112 and 118 level
and will probably need a break out there to give clear direction. On the other hand, note that focus in the major pairs
will remain on near term levels mentioned in out technical outlook reports and as long as these levels holds, there is
still no change in dollar's near term bullish outlook ye
level, AUD/USD is drawing support from 0.85. USD/CHF is still struggling around 1.1. Momentum in EUR/USD is not
convincing too. Dollar is struggling to find follow through buying with oil still held inside range of 112 and 118 level
and will probably need a break out there to give clear direction. On the other hand, note that focus in the major pairs
will remain on near term levels mentioned in out technical outlook reports and as long as these levels holds, there is
still no change in dollar's near term bullish outlook ye
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Trading Signals for August 26
Hello and welcome to news trading signals.
Time: 9:00am. Event: German IFO Business expectations
Previous: 90.0. Forecast: 90.3.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 91.8 or higher for 30 pips or more in the first 5 minutes.
Sell EURUSD if it is 88.8 or lower for 30 pips.
German IFO Business climate m/m comes out at the same time. Although historical performance shows the 2 always move in one direction, but pay close attention just in case there is a contradiction.
You may straddle the report.
Time: 3:00pm. Event: USD New Home Sales.
Previous: 530K. Forecast: 530K.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 550K or higher for 20pips or more in the first minute.
Sell USDJPY if it is 510K. A sell signal may do better than a buy signal this time.
That will be all for Tuesday August 26.
Time: 9:00am. Event: German IFO Business expectations
Previous: 90.0. Forecast: 90.3.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 91.8 or higher for 30 pips or more in the first 5 minutes.
Sell EURUSD if it is 88.8 or lower for 30 pips.
German IFO Business climate m/m comes out at the same time. Although historical performance shows the 2 always move in one direction, but pay close attention just in case there is a contradiction.
You may straddle the report.
Time: 3:00pm. Event: USD New Home Sales.
Previous: 530K. Forecast: 530K.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 550K or higher for 20pips or more in the first minute.
Sell USDJPY if it is 510K. A sell signal may do better than a buy signal this time.
That will be all for Tuesday August 26.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Dollar Edges Higher
Dollar Edges Higher, Focus on Existing Home Sales
===========================================
Dollar edges further higher in a quiet start of the day. Weakness in Sterling is particular apparent as GBP/USD dives
below 1.85 level. Euro, Aussie, Swissy all weakens against the greenback too but is still holding above last week's
low. Technically speaking, outlook is still rather mixed but favor is mildly in the case that last week's pull back in the
dollar has completed already and hence, more upside is in favor for the greenback this week. Though, the major
currencies will need to break through last week's low to confirm.
More......
Click here for our Action Insight Forex Report for today.
http://www.actionforex.com/contentsection/action-insight/
===========================================
Dollar edges further higher in a quiet start of the day. Weakness in Sterling is particular apparent as GBP/USD dives
below 1.85 level. Euro, Aussie, Swissy all weakens against the greenback too but is still holding above last week's
low. Technically speaking, outlook is still rather mixed but favor is mildly in the case that last week's pull back in the
dollar has completed already and hence, more upside is in favor for the greenback this week. Though, the major
currencies will need to break through last week's low to confirm.
More......
Click here for our Action Insight Forex Report for today.
http://www.actionforex.com/contentsection/action-insight/
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Forex Signal for 25th August
1. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales. Last month it did not hit my trigger (-0.08) but we saw 30 pips move on USD/JPY. This month it is expected to come out at 4.91M and I would use 0.08 deviation. If it comes out at 4.83M or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move move in the first 30 minutes. If it comes out at 5.00M, I would buy USD/JPY and expected 30 pips move as well.
2. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m.
That would be all for Monday.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales. Last month it did not hit my trigger (-0.08) but we saw 30 pips move on USD/JPY. This month it is expected to come out at 4.91M and I would use 0.08 deviation. If it comes out at 4.83M or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move move in the first 30 minutes. If it comes out at 5.00M, I would buy USD/JPY and expected 30 pips move as well.
2. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m.
That would be all for Monday.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Alert
Dollar Soft, Focus on Bernanke
========================
Dollar's pull back against major currencies is still in progress on the back of rebound in oil prices. The greenback is
showing further indication that a short term top is in place and more pull back is anticipated, in particular if commodity
prices rebound further. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is unchanged and more medium term weakness is still
expected from the greenback after completing the current pull back
========================
Dollar's pull back against major currencies is still in progress on the back of rebound in oil prices. The greenback is
showing further indication that a short term top is in place and more pull back is anticipated, in particular if commodity
prices rebound further. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is unchanged and more medium term weakness is still
expected from the greenback after completing the current pull back
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Trading Signals for Friday August 22 2008
Hello and welcome to news trading signals for Wednesday August 21. All time is Lagos time (GMT +1).
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP GDP q/q.
Previous: 0.2%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy GBPUSD if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour.
Sell GBPUSD if it is 0% or lower.
Note: A sell Signal may not work very well with this indicator except with a very wide deviation of say 0.3%.
I wish you all the profits you can make this week.
This is to your success!
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP GDP q/q.
Previous: 0.2%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy GBPUSD if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour.
Sell GBPUSD if it is 0% or lower.
Note: A sell Signal may not work very well with this indicator except with a very wide deviation of say 0.3%.
I wish you all the profits you can make this week.
This is to your success!
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Forex Signal 21th August
Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.
On Wednesday we had Canadian Retail Sales. The headline came out nearly as expected but the core number deviated by 0.9%. USD/CAD and EUR/CAD moved down by a little but without a support from the headline number it retraced pretty fast. If you traded EUR/CAD and your spread was not crazy, probably you managed to take a few pips profit.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. I think I would like to see 0.5 deviation on m/m number but even 0.3 deviation can move the market. The problem with the smaller deviation is we will also get a revision and the y/y number so the smaller deviation you use, the higher risk of conflict is. With no conflict or even some support from the other numbers, 0.3 deviation should give you a nice move. The problem is you don't know if it we are going to get a conflict so I would not use such low trigger. I still think, however, 0.5 deviation should be good enough and in case of a conflict, it should be possible to exit at BE or a small loss. If you are more aggressive player, you may want to enter at 0.4 deviation. According to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at -0.2% but according to ForexFactory it is going to come out at -0.3% so let's say the consensus is -0.25%. So, if it comes out at +0.2% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.7% or lower (more negative), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. Alternatively, you can trade GBP/JPY and you may want to trade both. Recently, we see price actions retracing pretty fast so I would rather take a profit pretty soon.
2. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike up as well. It seems a lot of trades also pay attention to the headline m/m number but because CPI reports retrace very fast, I would not use 0.2 deviation on the headline number. If you really have to trade it, try 0.3 deviation on the headline number or 0.2 deviation on the core number, whichever comes first. According to ForexFactory calendar it is expected to come out at 0.3% but according to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at 0.4% so let's say it is expected to come out at 0.35%. If the headline m/m comes out at 0.6% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well. I will probably enter a trade at 0.7% or 0.0% on the headline number as I am not crazy about trading CPI reports anymore. If we get a tradable deviation, you MUST take your profit immediately. This may literally retrace in 10 seconds, and it might be a good idea to enter a trade at the top or bottom of the spike in the opposite direction. Most likely I will prepare a few automatic levels to be executed should the spike occur. Of course, such trades would be much smaller than a spike trade. THIS IS A VERY RISKY REPORT TO TRADE, especially if you trade the headline number.
3. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims. You may try to scalp a few pips on USD/JPY if it deviates by about 25K but that would be a small trade and be prepared to exit at BE. If it comes out at 470K or higher, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move. If it comes out at 419K or lower, that would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well.
4. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Well, I don't know what to expect from this indicator. Sometimes the price moves pretty well, sometimes it does not move the market at all. I guess you can try to trade it with 8 deviation if you have fixed or very low spread and you are around your trading station but I most likely will skip it.
That would be all for Thursday.
Forex Signal for 20th August
On Wednesday we have two events:
1. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have MPC Meeting Minutes and 7-2 for hold vote
is expected. I don't trade this because I cannot set up SNW for that,
and since I live in Chicago area, that would be a middle of night so
I prefer to take a few hours sleep and wake up fresh for morning reports.
Since I will not be trading it, I do not want to recommend anything.
This is an important report and historically it was able to move GBP/USD
by a lot of pips. However, it also requires you to have paid and reliable
news providers so you can get the vote as fast as possible. What really
counts here is not only the vote but also names, that is who voted how.
This is not for beginners for sure.
2. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales. This might spike up
or down, and reverse so be careful. I would trade the headline number
which is expected to come out at 0.4%. I would trade it with about
0.7 trigger here. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, it would be good
for the Canadian dollar, and I would go short (sell) on USD/CAD, looking for
35 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -0.3% or lower (more negative), I would
go long (buy) on USD/CAD, looking for 35 to 40 pips as well. What is
interesting about this report is a lot of people pay attention to the
core number as well. You may try to set up 0.7 trigger on the core number
as well, and enter a trade on either the headline or the core number,
whichever comes first. Probably smaller deviation could move USD/CAD
as well but we had huge deviations recently so I would be more careful
with smaller deviations as I am not sure how the market is sensitive
to that right now. One thing for sure, if we get a small deviation,
please take your profit rather fast. One more tip: EUR/CAD usually moves
much better...... but pay attention to its spread. Canadian Retail Sales
is a good report to trade but please don't turn a profitable trade into
losing one - take your profits fast, you can always reenter....
That would be all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have MPC Meeting Minutes and 7-2 for hold vote
is expected. I don't trade this because I cannot set up SNW for that,
and since I live in Chicago area, that would be a middle of night so
I prefer to take a few hours sleep and wake up fresh for morning reports.
Since I will not be trading it, I do not want to recommend anything.
This is an important report and historically it was able to move GBP/USD
by a lot of pips. However, it also requires you to have paid and reliable
news providers so you can get the vote as fast as possible. What really
counts here is not only the vote but also names, that is who voted how.
This is not for beginners for sure.
2. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales. This might spike up
or down, and reverse so be careful. I would trade the headline number
which is expected to come out at 0.4%. I would trade it with about
0.7 trigger here. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, it would be good
for the Canadian dollar, and I would go short (sell) on USD/CAD, looking for
35 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -0.3% or lower (more negative), I would
go long (buy) on USD/CAD, looking for 35 to 40 pips as well. What is
interesting about this report is a lot of people pay attention to the
core number as well. You may try to set up 0.7 trigger on the core number
as well, and enter a trade on either the headline or the core number,
whichever comes first. Probably smaller deviation could move USD/CAD
as well but we had huge deviations recently so I would be more careful
with smaller deviations as I am not sure how the market is sensitive
to that right now. One thing for sure, if we get a small deviation,
please take your profit rather fast. One more tip: EUR/CAD usually moves
much better...... but pay attention to its spread. Canadian Retail Sales
is a good report to trade but please don't turn a profitable trade into
losing one - take your profits fast, you can always reenter....
That would be all for Wednesday.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
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Forex Signal 19th August
Let's talk about Tuesday then.
1. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE, GERMANY
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is expected to come out at -62. It is a good report to trade, especially if you are a SNW user. I will definitely be trading this report. If you want to be more conservative, you can 8 trigger but if you want to be a bit more aggressive, I think a trigger as low as 5 should be good enough to scalp EUR/USD a bit. I think people will care about this indicator, especially now when Europeans are worried if the Eurozone is about to enter into recession. I will be aggressive myself and I will use 5 trigger myself so if it comes out at -57 or less negative, that means it is good for Euro and EUR/USD may go up by 25 pips. If it comes out at -67 or more negative, that would be bad for Euro and EUR/USD should go down by 25 pips. With +/- 8 deviation you we may see a move as big as 40 pips in first 10 minutes. Right before I would analyze the trend and I would make some adjustment if needed but I think this trade plan should work. Brokers usually keep the spread quite small but keep an eye on it just in case as you do not want to enter with 20 pips spread here. I think EUR/USD is more on sell mode now but keep an eye on 1.4660 level. With a smaller deviation it might be a good idea to take profits around there; with a bigger deviation probably it would be a good idea to keep *some* of the position opened in case this level breaks because if it breaks, EUR/USD may go down pretty well. If you are interested in trading it with SNW, you can sign up here (they have 25 days money back offer):
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2. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have bunch of U.S. reports. Probably one of the most important is U.S. Housing Starts m/m but I will not be trading it because of possible conflict with U.S. Building Permits and U.S. PPI. U.S. PPI itself is not really tradable and I was not trading it for a while but when it deviates, it may cause a weird price action. U.S. Housing Starts is a relatively weak indicator as well but if this deviates a lot, it may also screw up the trade at least a bit. U.S. Housing Starts itself should move USD/JPY by 25 to 30 pips if it deviates by 60K but again, I don't really feel I am going to wake up for this report. If you really have to trade this, try to sell USD/JPY if it comes out at 899K or lower (if the other indicators do not conflict) or buy USD/JPY if it comes out at 1020K or better. I actually think a positive number should move USD/JPY more than a negative number.
That would be all for Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE, GERMANY
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is expected to come out at -62. It is a good report to trade, especially if you are a SNW user. I will definitely be trading this report. If you want to be more conservative, you can 8 trigger but if you want to be a bit more aggressive, I think a trigger as low as 5 should be good enough to scalp EUR/USD a bit. I think people will care about this indicator, especially now when Europeans are worried if the Eurozone is about to enter into recession. I will be aggressive myself and I will use 5 trigger myself so if it comes out at -57 or less negative, that means it is good for Euro and EUR/USD may go up by 25 pips. If it comes out at -67 or more negative, that would be bad for Euro and EUR/USD should go down by 25 pips. With +/- 8 deviation you we may see a move as big as 40 pips in first 10 minutes. Right before I would analyze the trend and I would make some adjustment if needed but I think this trade plan should work. Brokers usually keep the spread quite small but keep an eye on it just in case as you do not want to enter with 20 pips spread here. I think EUR/USD is more on sell mode now but keep an eye on 1.4660 level. With a smaller deviation it might be a good idea to take profits around there; with a bigger deviation probably it would be a good idea to keep *some* of the position opened in case this level breaks because if it breaks, EUR/USD may go down pretty well. If you are interested in trading it with SNW, you can sign up here (they have 25 days money back offer):
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2. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have bunch of U.S. reports. Probably one of the most important is U.S. Housing Starts m/m but I will not be trading it because of possible conflict with U.S. Building Permits and U.S. PPI. U.S. PPI itself is not really tradable and I was not trading it for a while but when it deviates, it may cause a weird price action. U.S. Housing Starts is a relatively weak indicator as well but if this deviates a lot, it may also screw up the trade at least a bit. U.S. Housing Starts itself should move USD/JPY by 25 to 30 pips if it deviates by 60K but again, I don't really feel I am going to wake up for this report. If you really have to trade this, try to sell USD/JPY if it comes out at 899K or lower (if the other indicators do not conflict) or buy USD/JPY if it comes out at 1020K or better. I actually think a positive number should move USD/JPY more than a negative number.
That would be all for Tuesday.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Forex Signal for August 18th
Let's first review what happened on Friday.
We had U.S. Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence. All of them came out too close to expectations to enter a trade. Nothing to review.
Quite honestly, nothing is will be happening on Monday too. Stay away from New Zealand CPI, this is really not tradable.
1. Monday, August 18th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have RBA Meeting Minutes coming out. You cannot trade it with SNW, this is not for beginners either. If you are a pro trader, you don't need my help. Watch the video if you wish.
That would be all for Monday.
We had U.S. Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence. All of them came out too close to expectations to enter a trade. Nothing to review.
Quite honestly, nothing is will be happening on Monday too. Stay away from New Zealand CPI, this is really not tradable.
1. Monday, August 18th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have RBA Meeting Minutes coming out. You cannot trade it with SNW, this is not for beginners either. If you are a pro trader, you don't need my help. Watch the video if you wish.
That would be all for Monday.
Friday, August 15, 2008
15th August Signal
Hi there my Forex friend :)
Let's first review what happened on Thursday.
We had German GDP coming out. It came out higher than expected and we saw a pretty nice price action on EUR/USD. It spiked up by 30 pips and eventually it went even higher.
At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI which came out higher than expected. EUR/USD spiked down by about 20 pips and then it immediately reversed. I left a note for SNW users how to approach this report, I am sorry I did not leave that comment here about how dangerous this report can be. I hope you made money on the reversal or did not lose (or even make) money on the spike.
Retail Sales out of New Zealand come out higher than expected and we saw a pretty good price action on NZD/USD. Nice 35 pips move.
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing Survey coming out. We should have a good trade if it deviates by 10. If it comes out at +6.0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move. If it comes out at -14 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move as well. Smaller deviation should work but I would rather to stay more conservative here.
2. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. Skip it.
3. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. With 0.4 trigger we may see 15 pips move. Not worthy to take a risk. Skip it.
4. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment and I think this might work pretty well. I would use 4 trigger here. If it comes out at 66, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.
That would be all for this week.
Let's first review what happened on Thursday.
We had German GDP coming out. It came out higher than expected and we saw a pretty nice price action on EUR/USD. It spiked up by 30 pips and eventually it went even higher.
At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI which came out higher than expected. EUR/USD spiked down by about 20 pips and then it immediately reversed. I left a note for SNW users how to approach this report, I am sorry I did not leave that comment here about how dangerous this report can be. I hope you made money on the reversal or did not lose (or even make) money on the spike.
Retail Sales out of New Zealand come out higher than expected and we saw a pretty good price action on NZD/USD. Nice 35 pips move.
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing Survey coming out. We should have a good trade if it deviates by 10. If it comes out at +6.0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move. If it comes out at -14 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move as well. Smaller deviation should work but I would rather to stay more conservative here.
2. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. Skip it.
3. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. With 0.4 trigger we may see 15 pips move. Not worthy to take a risk. Skip it.
4. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment and I think this might work pretty well. I would use 4 trigger here. If it comes out at 66, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.
That would be all for this week.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
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14th August Signal
All the events for today did not trigger our signals. GBP Claimant Count Change came out at 20.1K, while USD Core Retail Sales came out at 0.4% but USDJPY still went down by over 40pips in 1 hour.
Time: 7:00am. Event: EUR German Prelim GDP q/q.
Previous: 1.5%. Forecast: -0.8%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if it is 0% or a positive number for 30pips or more in the first hour of the report.
Sell EURUSD if actual is -1.6% or more negative for 30pips.
EUR CPI y/y will come out at 10:00am.
Previous: 4.1%. Forecast: 4.1%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 4.3% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour. Sell EURUSD if it is 3.9% or lower.
Trading this on the retracement might be a good idea.
At 1:30pm we will be watching and probably trading USD Core CPI m/m.
Previous: 0.3%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips in the first 15 minutes. Sell USDJPY if it is 0.0% or negative for 30pips or more.
Please pay attention also to the year over year components to avoid whipsaw.
You may straddle with 10pips stop loss.
Then at 11:45pm we will be watching and probably trading NZD Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: -1.2%. Forecast: 0.1%.
Recommendations: Buy NZDUSD if actual is 0.8% or higher for 20pips in the first 5 minutes.
Sell NZDUSD if it is -0.6% or more negative for 20pips.
Time: 7:00am. Event: EUR German Prelim GDP q/q.
Previous: 1.5%. Forecast: -0.8%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if it is 0% or a positive number for 30pips or more in the first hour of the report.
Sell EURUSD if actual is -1.6% or more negative for 30pips.
EUR CPI y/y will come out at 10:00am.
Previous: 4.1%. Forecast: 4.1%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 4.3% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour. Sell EURUSD if it is 3.9% or lower.
Trading this on the retracement might be a good idea.
At 1:30pm we will be watching and probably trading USD Core CPI m/m.
Previous: 0.3%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips in the first 15 minutes. Sell USDJPY if it is 0.0% or negative for 30pips or more.
Please pay attention also to the year over year components to avoid whipsaw.
You may straddle with 10pips stop loss.
Then at 11:45pm we will be watching and probably trading NZD Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: -1.2%. Forecast: 0.1%.
Recommendations: Buy NZDUSD if actual is 0.8% or higher for 20pips in the first 5 minutes.
Sell NZDUSD if it is -0.6% or more negative for 20pips.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
August 13 2008.
At 9:30am GBP CPI y/y came out at 4.4% and GBPUSD moved for a buy for over 40pips in the first minute with a very sharp retracement immediately.
The USD Trade Balance did not do quite well with an outcome of -56.8B.
Let us now have an outlook of what to expect on Wednesday.
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP Claimant Change Counts.
Previous: 15.5k. Forecast: 17.5k.
Recommendations: I will trade this with 5K deviation. Buy GBPUSD if it is 12.5k or lower for 30 pips or more.
Sell GBPUSD if it comes out at 22.5k or higher for 30 pips.
Time: 1:30pm. Event: USD Core Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: 0.8%. Forecast: 0.5%.
Recommendations: Barring any contrast with the Retail Sales m/m buy USDJPY if actual is 0.7% or higher for 30 pips or more.
Sell USDJPY if it is 0.3% or lower. Pre release price might play a big role in the price action.
That will be all for Wednesday August 13 2008.
This is to your success!
The USD Trade Balance did not do quite well with an outcome of -56.8B.
Let us now have an outlook of what to expect on Wednesday.
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP Claimant Change Counts.
Previous: 15.5k. Forecast: 17.5k.
Recommendations: I will trade this with 5K deviation. Buy GBPUSD if it is 12.5k or lower for 30 pips or more.
Sell GBPUSD if it comes out at 22.5k or higher for 30 pips.
Time: 1:30pm. Event: USD Core Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: 0.8%. Forecast: 0.5%.
Recommendations: Barring any contrast with the Retail Sales m/m buy USDJPY if actual is 0.7% or higher for 30 pips or more.
Sell USDJPY if it is 0.3% or lower. Pre release price might play a big role in the price action.
That will be all for Wednesday August 13 2008.
This is to your success!
Tuesday 12th August 2008
Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI m/m coming out. Please remember that this indicator spikes up or down and then reverses very fast. Please watch the video for very detailed explanation of this indicator. If it comes out at 0% or positive, GBP/USD should spike up by 50 pips. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, we should see a 50 pips spike down on GBP/USD and you might think about buying around those levels.
2. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Trade Balance. Skip it.
3. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have PPI out of New Zealand. Skip it.
That's all for Tuesday.
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI m/m coming out. Please remember that this indicator spikes up or down and then reverses very fast. Please watch the video for very detailed explanation of this indicator. If it comes out at 0% or positive, GBP/USD should spike up by 50 pips. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, we should see a 50 pips spike down on GBP/USD and you might think about buying around those levels.
2. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Trade Balance. Skip it.
3. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have PPI out of New Zealand. Skip it.
That's all for Tuesday.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
August 07th, 2008
1. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Halifax House Price Index coming out which is expected to come out at -1.5. With 1 deviation GBP/USD may move 20 pips so there might be a little scalping opportunity. If it comes out at -2.5 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 20 pips move. If it comes out at -0.5 or less negative or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 20 pips move as well. Again, this is not a big indicator - this would be just a quick scalping.
2. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged. If they hike the rates, I would buy GBP/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell GBP/USD and expect a big move as well.
3. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 7:45 a.m. we will have European Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged as well. If they hike the rates, I would buy EUR/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell EUR/USD and expect a big move as well.
4. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EUROZONE
After 8:30 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. This is a very tradable event but requires you to have a very good skills to do so. Do not even try to trade his speeches if you are new in Forex. If you are more advanced and interested to trade it, please watch the video or sign up for the trial period to the Diamonds room.
5. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales. If it comes out at +3.0% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -5.0% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips move as well.
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Halifax House Price Index coming out which is expected to come out at -1.5. With 1 deviation GBP/USD may move 20 pips so there might be a little scalping opportunity. If it comes out at -2.5 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 20 pips move. If it comes out at -0.5 or less negative or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 20 pips move as well. Again, this is not a big indicator - this would be just a quick scalping.
2. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged. If they hike the rates, I would buy GBP/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell GBP/USD and expect a big move as well.
3. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 7:45 a.m. we will have European Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged as well. If they hike the rates, I would buy EUR/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell EUR/USD and expect a big move as well.
4. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EUROZONE
After 8:30 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. This is a very tradable event but requires you to have a very good skills to do so. Do not even try to trade his speeches if you are new in Forex. If you are more advanced and interested to trade it, please watch the video or sign up for the trial period to the Diamonds room.
5. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales. If it comes out at +3.0% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -5.0% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips move as well.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
additional forecast
Oil rally slows USD strength ahead of today's US Q2 GDP and tomorrow's key employment, ISM reports. |
EURCHF knocking at key resistance. JPY crosses set to fall further? |
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
|
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key Risk Events (All times in GMT)
|
Market Comments
|
Signal for July 31th
Hello dear trader and welcome to Toozealous-Forex-Corner News Trading Signals Service from the desk of Ifeanyi Uche. This service is absolutely FREE and is guaranteed to make up to 150 pips per week trading only news events.
All time is Local Nigerian Time (GMT+1).
Wednesday we watched 2 events. AUD Building Approval did not trigger our signals as the news came out at -0.7%. But USDJPY went up by 30pips in the first 5 minutes but in all it did over 30pips in 30 minutes. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 9. This is a pointer to what we should be expecting at 1:30pm on Friday when the Non-Farm Payroll will be released, the only challenge with the Unemployment Rate that will be released at the same time.
Let us now review the events for Thursday July 31 2008.
Time: 2:30am. Event: AUD Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: 0.7%. Forecast: 0%.
Recommendations: Buy AUDUSD if actual is 0.2% or higher for 30 pips or more in the first minute.
Sell AUDUSD if actual is -0.2% or more negative for 30 pips or more. Although this can pull up to 40pips I will only target 20 to 30pips.
The Trade Balance will also come out at the same time but it is a slow market mover.
Time: 7:00am. Event: GBP Nationwide HPI m/m.
Previous: -0.9%. Forecast: -1.2%.
Recommendations: Buy GBPUSD if actual is -0.6% or less negative for 30 pips or more in the first 15 minutes.
Sell GBPUSD if actual is -1.8% or more negative.
There are other events from Canada and US at 1:30pm: GDP. But they are not worth my time.
Have a profitable trading day and to your success!
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