forex signal 3rd DEC

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI which is expected to come out at 41.2. I would not trade smaller deviation than 2.0. Last month we had -2.1 deviation and GBP/USD went down by about 30 pips. This indicator still worked past 3 months although it does not move a lot of pips. If it comes out at 43.0 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 39.2 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move as well.

2. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. This needs to deviate a lot to move USD/JPY, and even if it deviates a lot, spikes are not huge. If it comes out at -55K or less negative, this might move USD/JPY up a bit. If it comes out at at -275K or lower, USD/JPY may move down a bit. I don't like trading this report, however.

3. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It is not so important report now. I would use a big trigger here such as 5.0. Chances are low it will deviate that much but once a while it happens. If it comes out at 47 or higher, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should move up by 35 pips. If it comes out at 37 or lower, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should go down by 35-40 pips as well.

4. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 3:00 p.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of New Zealand. It is expected it will come out at 5.00% so 150 bp cut is expected. If they cut by that much, although initially we might see price going down on NZD/USD, overall NZD/USD may push higher as this would tell people that the government is listening to the market needs. If they cut much less than expected, the initial spike might be up but NZD/USD may push lower as people will be disappointed. I am not sure yet if I will be trading it with the SNW.

That's all for Wednesday.