Euro and Swissy Up on Safe Haven Flow
The post Christmas thin markets are dominated by safe haven flow on escalation of conflicts in Middle East. Swiss Franc rallies across the board and takes Euro along with it. In particular, EUR/GBP scores another record high of 0.9663 today, while GBP/CHF also dives to new low at 1.5503. While dollar remains pretty steady against other major currencies like Yen, Sterling and Aussie, dollar index is dragged down by weakness against Euro and Swissy and is back pressing 80 level. Gold rises to as high as 870 so far while crude oil is firm above $38 level. Israeli warplane pounded the Hamas-ruled Gaza for the third consecutive day on Monday and more attacked could be planned after over 300 were killed.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
SCAM INVESTIGATION COMMITTEE
Two New Managed Account Scams
Managed forex accounts can be very dangerous. You have to trust the brokerage. You have to trust the managed account company. You have to trust the account manager who will trade your account. If any one of these fails to live up to your trust, you can lose all your money.
We've had 2 different managed account companies investigations reach the end in the last 2 days. These are HSNNA and Lloyds Capital Group LLC (LloydsFx).
FPA member Trader B had an account managed by HSNNA. First, HSNNA required him to use HSNNA as an introducing broker. This arrangement cost Trader B an extra pip per trade. HSNNA's representative, Jason Drenston, told Trader B that the broker required this. According to the broker, this was not true. This put HSNNA in a position to overtrade the account in order to collect excess spread commissions. This added up to over 10% of the account balance per month sometimes. Instead of being profitable, the initial balance was eroded by excess spread commissions and eventually destoyed by poor risk management. Trader B had already expressed concerns about over trading and excess risk, but HSNNA continued to trade the same way.
Two other FPA members also reported losing the bulk of the money in their accounts managed by HSNNA due to poor risk management.
After a time, Jason Drenston stopped responding to Trader B's messages. He then came to the FPA. FPA Investigator Tessa and Trader B repeatedly tried to contact HSNNA and Jason Drenston, but could get no response. The HSNNA website has been suspended. It appears that the people behind this have decided to take the money they have and leave.
We cannot consider poor trading alone to be a scam. We do consider refusing to speak with a trader to be unethical. We consider deception about IB commission structure to be unethical. We consider churning an account to generate excess commissions to be unethical. We consider failing to address a trader's concerns about risk to his account to be unethical. On this basis, we consider FPA member Trader B's scam complaint to be confirmed.
Trader B's original complaint about HSNNA
Official Scam Confirmation - HSNNA
Managed forex accounts can be very dangerous. You have to trust the brokerage. You have to trust the managed account company. You have to trust the account manager who will trade your account. If any one of these fails to live up to your trust, you can lose all your money.
We've had 2 different managed account companies investigations reach the end in the last 2 days. These are HSNNA and Lloyds Capital Group LLC (LloydsFx).
FPA member Trader B had an account managed by HSNNA. First, HSNNA required him to use HSNNA as an introducing broker. This arrangement cost Trader B an extra pip per trade. HSNNA's representative, Jason Drenston, told Trader B that the broker required this. According to the broker, this was not true. This put HSNNA in a position to overtrade the account in order to collect excess spread commissions. This added up to over 10% of the account balance per month sometimes. Instead of being profitable, the initial balance was eroded by excess spread commissions and eventually destoyed by poor risk management. Trader B had already expressed concerns about over trading and excess risk, but HSNNA continued to trade the same way.
Two other FPA members also reported losing the bulk of the money in their accounts managed by HSNNA due to poor risk management.
After a time, Jason Drenston stopped responding to Trader B's messages. He then came to the FPA. FPA Investigator Tessa and Trader B repeatedly tried to contact HSNNA and Jason Drenston, but could get no response. The HSNNA website has been suspended. It appears that the people behind this have decided to take the money they have and leave.
We cannot consider poor trading alone to be a scam. We do consider refusing to speak with a trader to be unethical. We consider deception about IB commission structure to be unethical. We consider churning an account to generate excess commissions to be unethical. We consider failing to address a trader's concerns about risk to his account to be unethical. On this basis, we consider FPA member Trader B's scam complaint to be confirmed.
Trader B's original complaint about HSNNA
Official Scam Confirmation - HSNNA
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Insight for Today
Quiet Markets Await US Data
With holidays coming close, market activity continue to decrease. Majors and crosses are bounded in tight range. Focus will turn to a bunch of economic data from US today including Nov Personal Income and spending, durables and conference board consumer confidence. Consumer confidence in Nov is forecasted to drop -0.7% after falling -1% in Oct. Durable goods orders should have fallen -3% in Nov, the 4th consecutive monthly decline after dropping -6.2% in October. Excluding transportation, it's also anticipated to be down by -3% with decline across most industries. Nov's personal consumption expenditure is expected to be flat (mom) as indicated by weak auto sales and retail consumption. As unemployment has been increasing, personal income should remain sluggish in Nov (consensus: 0%) after rising slightly by 0.3% in the previous month while personal spending should have contracted further by -0.7%.
With holidays coming close, market activity continue to decrease. Majors and crosses are bounded in tight range. Focus will turn to a bunch of economic data from US today including Nov Personal Income and spending, durables and conference board consumer confidence. Consumer confidence in Nov is forecasted to drop -0.7% after falling -1% in Oct. Durable goods orders should have fallen -3% in Nov, the 4th consecutive monthly decline after dropping -6.2% in October. Excluding transportation, it's also anticipated to be down by -3% with decline across most industries. Nov's personal consumption expenditure is expected to be flat (mom) as indicated by weak auto sales and retail consumption. As unemployment has been increasing, personal income should remain sluggish in Nov (consensus: 0%) after rising slightly by 0.3% in the previous month while personal spending should have contracted further by -0.7%.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/23/08
Hi there my Forex friend.
On Tuesday the 12-23 we have 3 situations to look out for
0430 EST UK GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
This is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.3% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
-0.2% or higher buy GBP/USD for about 30 pips
-0.8% or lower short GBP/USD for about 30 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
0830 EST US GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
As with UK GDP today, this is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.6% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
+0.1% or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
-1.1% or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
1000 EST US Existing and New Home Sales m/m.
EHS expected at 4.93M and NHS at 418K. I tip my hat a bit towards Existing home sales as the slightly more important report here, but definitely stay out on any conflict. Housing indicators aren't what they used to be, but with 2 out at the same time they could prove worthwhile.
EHS at 5.1M or NHS at 480K or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
EHS at 4.79M or NHS at 350K or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If both come out close to expectations, look for the technicals to take over, but it's more likely that the market and usd/jpy may rally on news that isn't horrible.
That's all for tonight. Good luck trading and Merry Christmas!
On Tuesday the 12-23 we have 3 situations to look out for
0430 EST UK GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
This is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.3% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
-0.2% or higher buy GBP/USD for about 30 pips
-0.8% or lower short GBP/USD for about 30 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
0830 EST US GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
As with UK GDP today, this is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.6% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
+0.1% or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
-1.1% or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
1000 EST US Existing and New Home Sales m/m.
EHS expected at 4.93M and NHS at 418K. I tip my hat a bit towards Existing home sales as the slightly more important report here, but definitely stay out on any conflict. Housing indicators aren't what they used to be, but with 2 out at the same time they could prove worthwhile.
EHS at 5.1M or NHS at 480K or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
EHS at 4.79M or NHS at 350K or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If both come out close to expectations, look for the technicals to take over, but it's more likely that the market and usd/jpy may rally on news that isn't horrible.
That's all for tonight. Good luck trading and Merry Christmas!
Monday, December 22, 2008
Current Forex Trading Signals
Hi there my forex friend.
Hi there my forex friend.
will be monitoring the markets and trading the key news down here this week. Tomorrow there is just one report worth looking out for, and that's:
NZ GDP q/q expected at -0.5. I would say a 0.3 deviation would be worth trading.
If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, I'd look to buy NZD/USD
If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, I'd look to sell NZD/USD
I'd expect a move of about 30 pips in either direction.
There's always a chance news like this might get ignored on a holiday week like this, but I think it has a decent chance of working. If it gets ignored, at least you can get out for a small gain or small loss without much harm done.
Take care folks, and Merry Christmas.
Hi there my forex friend.
will be monitoring the markets and trading the key news down here this week. Tomorrow there is just one report worth looking out for, and that's:
NZ GDP q/q expected at -0.5. I would say a 0.3 deviation would be worth trading.
If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, I'd look to buy NZD/USD
If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, I'd look to sell NZD/USD
I'd expect a move of about 30 pips in either direction.
There's always a chance news like this might get ignored on a holiday week like this, but I think it has a decent chance of working. If it gets ignored, at least you can get out for a small gain or small loss without much harm done.
Take care folks, and Merry Christmas.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/19/08
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, December 19th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI. Do not trade the spike on this. Last month we had -0.2 deviation and a very confused price action and eventually the CAD actually gained some value. It is expected to come out at -0.1% If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, USD/CAD should eventually god down by 20 to 30 pips; if it comes out at +0.1% or higher, USD/CAD should eventually go up by 20 to 30 pips.That's all for today. Have a good weekend.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/18/08
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONEAt 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate coming out. A few months ago it was a huge leading indicator but recently it did not work well because the market is now focused on current events, not what will be next month so such leading indicators are not the best to trade. If the deviation is lower than +/- 2.0, then probably trading against it would be the best option so if it spikes up, you can enter a short trade on EUR/USD; if it spikes down, you can buy EUR/USD. If the deviation is bigger than 2.0, then I would not trade against it (although chances are good it will retrace). Spike trading might or might not work - if you are able to get a small spread and be able to exit quickly, then I guess you can try spike trading here.
2. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out which is expected to come out at at -0.6%. It has a habit to spike and then to completely reverse so be prepared to see that again. Currently, the market is not driven by economic numbers (although in a few months they should again be very hot) so don't expect too much from this indicator either. If anything, I would trade 1.0% deviation. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD may go up by 25 to 30 pips (and it might also retrace then). If it comes out at -1.6%, GBP/USD should go down by 25 to 30 pips (and it may retrace as well).
3. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales coming out. This is a VERY weak report to trade, and I would not trade the spike here. A deviation of +/- 0.6 might produce a 20 pips spike but I don't trust this report too much (higher number, sell USD/CAD; lower number, buy USD/CAD; sell seems to be way more safe).
4. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philly Fed coming out. This is a very small indicator. Last month a deviation of -27.5 moved USD/JPY down by 30 pips but it was a HUGE deviation. If we see such deviation again, then yes, trading it might make sense although 10 deviation may work fine as well. If it comes out at -50 or more negative, you may sell USD/JPY and expect about 20 pips move. If it comes out at -30 or less negative, you may buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well. That's all for today. Have a good trading session.
1. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONEAt 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate coming out. A few months ago it was a huge leading indicator but recently it did not work well because the market is now focused on current events, not what will be next month so such leading indicators are not the best to trade. If the deviation is lower than +/- 2.0, then probably trading against it would be the best option so if it spikes up, you can enter a short trade on EUR/USD; if it spikes down, you can buy EUR/USD. If the deviation is bigger than 2.0, then I would not trade against it (although chances are good it will retrace). Spike trading might or might not work - if you are able to get a small spread and be able to exit quickly, then I guess you can try spike trading here.
2. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out which is expected to come out at at -0.6%. It has a habit to spike and then to completely reverse so be prepared to see that again. Currently, the market is not driven by economic numbers (although in a few months they should again be very hot) so don't expect too much from this indicator either. If anything, I would trade 1.0% deviation. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD may go up by 25 to 30 pips (and it might also retrace then). If it comes out at -1.6%, GBP/USD should go down by 25 to 30 pips (and it may retrace as well).
3. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales coming out. This is a VERY weak report to trade, and I would not trade the spike here. A deviation of +/- 0.6 might produce a 20 pips spike but I don't trust this report too much (higher number, sell USD/CAD; lower number, buy USD/CAD; sell seems to be way more safe).
4. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philly Fed coming out. This is a very small indicator. Last month a deviation of -27.5 moved USD/JPY down by 30 pips but it was a HUGE deviation. If we see such deviation again, then yes, trading it might make sense although 10 deviation may work fine as well. If it comes out at -50 or more negative, you may sell USD/JPY and expect about 20 pips move. If it comes out at -30 or less negative, you may buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well. That's all for today. Have a good trading session.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Today market
Today we made HUNDREDS of pips taking the EUR/USD long from 1.3822 to 1.4150, and we're still in some looking for somewhere near 1.4600 potentially.Risking just 1% of your account per trade, we've had the following results so far this month:12/20 of our afterspike scalps have made money so far this month earning a net 6.3% return4/4 on PMS trades: Sometimes we see a nice swing trade and make a call in the room, and sometimes we'll take the 2nd half of a good scalp trade and turn it into a swing trade with set TP and SL. We call those PMS trades. So far this month we've done 4 PMS trades, and all 4 have been winners with +3.68% on the first three, and the latest one off has locked in +6.1% with the potential of making a total of +12.85% if the final TP is hit on that single trade alone. Usually we get a huge winner like that once every month or two. In November we pulled in 10.70% from our trades as a whole as well.I guess what I'm saying is... if you're trading around the news anyways, and you're able to trade with at least $10,000, it's DEFINITELY well worth it to join the Diamonds room and start to trade and learn with us. I say $10,000 because that's enough money to trade with responsible levels of risk and still have trading be worth your time and effort. If you're not able to trade with that much money, it's still a decent idea to join up and start learning the ropes and gaining experience while you save up your money with you day job. That's how I did it at first. Again, even if you have the money to throw around, it's best to trade very small with any service for the first month or two until you really get the hang of things and have a lot of practice doing it with smaller amounts.If you're just not in a position to take advantage of the Diamonds room, that's fine too... maybe later some day, but at least take full advantage of the free videos I'm putting out there. I know lots of times you get lazy, and you click the link, and you decide to just read the text and move on to other stuff... I used to do the same thing a lot of times with Felix's old signals when he used to do these. However, oftentimes there is a LOT of good info in the video, and I don't write the transcript... . The text is Crazy Cat's quick rundown of the basics of the news stuff and his take on it while all the market predictions, potential trade levels on key pairs, quirks to look out for, long term forecasts, etc. that I work into the videos from time to time don't make it into the text. Take full advantage of these videos because I may not be able to give all this stuff out for free forever.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Trade Signal
Let's talk about Friday.1. Friday, December 12th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 8:30 a.m. we are going to have US PPI and US Retail Sales. U.S. Retail Sales headline is expected to come out at -2.0%. and U.S. Retail Sales core is expected to come out at -1.8%. I would not worry too much about PPI. This may or may not work because the market is so absorbed about the other news now. But, I still think it may work but do not trade it on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, trade only on USD/JPY. If the core number comes out at -2.8% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at -0.8% or less negative, or positive, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well.That's all for today. Have a good trading session, and have a good weekend.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Today's Signal
Let's talk Thursday - very simple day.1. Thursday, December 4th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will cut the rates by 100 bp from 3.00% to 2.00%. If they cut the rates to 2.00%, then initially the price action will be unpredictable but the resulting pressure should be higher on GBP/USD. If you can buy at the dip, buy it but probably it will be around pre-release price for a while so there will be plenty of time to set up a good trade. If they cut to 2.25% or 2.50%, GBP/USD may spike up but then it should reverse as this would be disappointing the market. It is tricky to trade but there is a way to make good money.2. Thursday, December 4th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONEAt 7:45 a.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of Euro Zone. Everyone is expecting at least 50 bp cut but some people are expecting bigger cut than 0.50% from 3.25% to 2.75%. If they cut to 2.75% or to 3.00%, the initial reaction might be funny but overall move should be Euro-negative. If they cut by more than expected, the market may take it as a very responsive move at after the initial price action it might be Euro-positive event.That would be all for Thursday.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
forex signal 3rd DEC
Let's talk about Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI which is expected to come out at 41.2. I would not trade smaller deviation than 2.0. Last month we had -2.1 deviation and GBP/USD went down by about 30 pips. This indicator still worked past 3 months although it does not move a lot of pips. If it comes out at 43.0 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 39.2 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move as well.
2. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. This needs to deviate a lot to move USD/JPY, and even if it deviates a lot, spikes are not huge. If it comes out at -55K or less negative, this might move USD/JPY up a bit. If it comes out at at -275K or lower, USD/JPY may move down a bit. I don't like trading this report, however.
3. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It is not so important report now. I would use a big trigger here such as 5.0. Chances are low it will deviate that much but once a while it happens. If it comes out at 47 or higher, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should move up by 35 pips. If it comes out at 37 or lower, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should go down by 35-40 pips as well.
4. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 3:00 p.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of New Zealand. It is expected it will come out at 5.00% so 150 bp cut is expected. If they cut by that much, although initially we might see price going down on NZD/USD, overall NZD/USD may push higher as this would tell people that the government is listening to the market needs. If they cut much less than expected, the initial spike might be up but NZD/USD may push lower as people will be disappointed. I am not sure yet if I will be trading it with the SNW.
That's all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI which is expected to come out at 41.2. I would not trade smaller deviation than 2.0. Last month we had -2.1 deviation and GBP/USD went down by about 30 pips. This indicator still worked past 3 months although it does not move a lot of pips. If it comes out at 43.0 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 39.2 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move as well.
2. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. This needs to deviate a lot to move USD/JPY, and even if it deviates a lot, spikes are not huge. If it comes out at -55K or less negative, this might move USD/JPY up a bit. If it comes out at at -275K or lower, USD/JPY may move down a bit. I don't like trading this report, however.
3. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It is not so important report now. I would use a big trigger here such as 5.0. Chances are low it will deviate that much but once a while it happens. If it comes out at 47 or higher, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should move up by 35 pips. If it comes out at 37 or lower, USD/JPY or EUR/JPY should go down by 35-40 pips as well.
4. Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 3:00 p.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of New Zealand. It is expected it will come out at 5.00% so 150 bp cut is expected. If they cut by that much, although initially we might see price going down on NZD/USD, overall NZD/USD may push higher as this would tell people that the government is listening to the market needs. If they cut much less than expected, the initial spike might be up but NZD/USD may push lower as people will be disappointed. I am not sure yet if I will be trading it with the SNW.
That's all for Wednesday.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
December 2nd 2008
Let's talk about Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
The only one tradable report is Australian GDP q/q. This should be tradable with 0.2 trigger; in fact, 0.1 trigger last time moved AUD/USD down a little bit. 0.2 may work, 0.3 should be really good. It is expected it will come out at 0.2. If it comes out at 0.4, AUD/USD should go up by 35 pips or so (but expect retracements). If it comes out at 0.0, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 pips move as well.
That's pretty much all for tomorrow. I am sorry for the late email but on the other hand the Australian report is Tuesday evening so there is a lot of time to read it.
1. Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
The only one tradable report is Australian GDP q/q. This should be tradable with 0.2 trigger; in fact, 0.1 trigger last time moved AUD/USD down a little bit. 0.2 may work, 0.3 should be really good. It is expected it will come out at 0.2. If it comes out at 0.4, AUD/USD should go up by 35 pips or so (but expect retracements). If it comes out at 0.0, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 pips move as well.
That's pretty much all for tomorrow. I am sorry for the late email but on the other hand the Australian report is Tuesday evening so there is a lot of time to read it.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Signal Forex
Let's talk about Monday.
1. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. I looked at this report and I think it is not tradable. Sir Pips also thinks to skip it.
2. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP. I looked at the charts, it seems it is better than UK Manufacturing PMI but still not reliable enough to enter a trade. In fact, it even goes against the number. Perhaps trying to trade against it might not be a bad idea but I will personally skip it. 3. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. If you look at last month chart, we had -2.6 deviation and within 3 minutes GBP/USD went down by 100 pips. Wow, great trade except........ yes, it went down, not up. EUR/USD went down by nearly 40 pips as well. USD/JPY also went... down, also around 40 pips (at least good direction). So did EUR/JPY (65 pips down). Two months ago we had crazy deviation and overall GBP/USD (with a temporary spike up) went down. So did USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Therefore, it seems it is tradable with 2.0 deviation but do NOT trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD. You can trade USD/JPY, or even better, EUR/JPY. If it comes out lower than expected by 2.0 (-2.0 deviation), EUR/JPY should move down by 40 to 50 pips. If it deviates by +2.0, then EUR/JPY should go up by 40 to 50 pips. Again, do not trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD on this (or you can try to trade against it but be careful as trading against is always risky).
4. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. I used to love this indicator but since the Australian government cut funds to do necessary researches, this indicator got screw up. We will also have Interest Rate decision that day so the market will be focused on the IR, not RS.
5. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. Last two months we had amazing spike trades. It is expected they will cut the rates from 5.25% to 4.50%. If they cut the rates to 4.75%, we might see a 40+ pips spike up on AUD/USD and then reversal. If they cut the rates by 1% to 4.25%, then AUD/USD should go down by 40+ pips and it will probably reverse as well. Be careful with the buy trigger, and obviously the less they cut, the more strong buy signal would be.
That's all for Monday.
1. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. I looked at this report and I think it is not tradable. Sir Pips also thinks to skip it.
2. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP. I looked at the charts, it seems it is better than UK Manufacturing PMI but still not reliable enough to enter a trade. In fact, it even goes against the number. Perhaps trying to trade against it might not be a bad idea but I will personally skip it. 3. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. If you look at last month chart, we had -2.6 deviation and within 3 minutes GBP/USD went down by 100 pips. Wow, great trade except........ yes, it went down, not up. EUR/USD went down by nearly 40 pips as well. USD/JPY also went... down, also around 40 pips (at least good direction). So did EUR/JPY (65 pips down). Two months ago we had crazy deviation and overall GBP/USD (with a temporary spike up) went down. So did USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Therefore, it seems it is tradable with 2.0 deviation but do NOT trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD. You can trade USD/JPY, or even better, EUR/JPY. If it comes out lower than expected by 2.0 (-2.0 deviation), EUR/JPY should move down by 40 to 50 pips. If it deviates by +2.0, then EUR/JPY should go up by 40 to 50 pips. Again, do not trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD on this (or you can try to trade against it but be careful as trading against is always risky).
4. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. I used to love this indicator but since the Australian government cut funds to do necessary researches, this indicator got screw up. We will also have Interest Rate decision that day so the market will be focused on the IR, not RS.
5. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. Last two months we had amazing spike trades. It is expected they will cut the rates from 5.25% to 4.50%. If they cut the rates to 4.75%, we might see a 40+ pips spike up on AUD/USD and then reversal. If they cut the rates by 1% to 4.25%, then AUD/USD should go down by 40+ pips and it will probably reverse as well. Be careful with the buy trigger, and obviously the less they cut, the more strong buy signal would be.
That's all for Monday.
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