Dollar Weakens against Sterling, Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie
Dollar continues to weaken against Sterling and commodity currencies including Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie today on the back on investors' optimism. Japanese Nikkei closed 127 pts high following 196 pts rally in DOW overnight. A survey from National Association for Business Economics survey showed that economists expect US growth to turn positive in second half of this year with pace of job losses narrowing sharply this year. Employment is expected to turn up in early 2010 after unemployment rate hits 9.8% by year end.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Forex Trading Signal 05/13/09
Hey folks,
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
To our success,
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
To our success,
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
BoJ Boosts JGB Purchase, BoE Minutes and FOMC Next
The Japanese yen remains soft in tight range after Bank of Japan left overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.1%. At the same time, BoJ boosted purchase of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) up from ¥1.4T to ¥1.8T per month. BoJ said in the statment that markets will "remain under stress" in the new fiscal year and "continued provision of substantial liquidity is required to ensure stability in financial markets." BoJ has also announced yesterday it is setting up a ¥1T fund to give subordinated loans to banks. JGBs trade higher after the announcement pushing yield down slightly and should make it easiser for the government to fund the planned deficits. But markets are increasingly worried that BoJ is running out of new ideas to revive the economy of Japan, whieh appears to be much more affected by the current financial crisis than other developed countries. Nikkei edged higher by 23 pts to 7972 today but failed to sustain above 8000 psychological level after breaching briefly.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Forex news
Euro Remains Pressured ahead of Inflation Release, Busy Calendar Ahead
Euro remains pressured as markets are awaiting the highly anticipated HICP inflation flash estimate in Dec from Eurozone. ECB comments took a drastic turn with ECB member Constancio and Vice President Papademos voicing out support for rate cuts should inflation ease further. HICP is expected to ease from 2.1% yoy to 1.8% yoy in Dec which is consistent with ECB's definition of price stability of 'below 2%, close to 2%' and that should give much room for ECB to cut rates to revive the deepening recession in the Eurozone.
Euro remains pressured as markets are awaiting the highly anticipated HICP inflation flash estimate in Dec from Eurozone. ECB comments took a drastic turn with ECB member Constancio and Vice President Papademos voicing out support for rate cuts should inflation ease further. HICP is expected to ease from 2.1% yoy to 1.8% yoy in Dec which is consistent with ECB's definition of price stability of 'below 2%, close to 2%' and that should give much room for ECB to cut rates to revive the deepening recession in the Eurozone.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
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