15th August Signal

Hi there my Forex friend :)

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

We had German GDP coming out. It came out higher than expected and we saw a pretty nice price action on EUR/USD. It spiked up by 30 pips and eventually it went even higher.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI which came out higher than expected. EUR/USD spiked down by about 20 pips and then it immediately reversed. I left a note for SNW users how to approach this report, I am sorry I did not leave that comment here about how dangerous this report can be. I hope you made money on the reversal or did not lose (or even make) money on the spike.

Retail Sales out of New Zealand come out higher than expected and we saw a pretty good price action on NZD/USD. Nice 35 pips move.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing Survey coming out. We should have a good trade if it deviates by 10. If it comes out at +6.0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move. If it comes out at -14 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move as well. Smaller deviation should work but I would rather to stay more conservative here.

2. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. Skip it.

3. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. With 0.4 trigger we may see 15 pips move. Not worthy to take a risk. Skip it.

4. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment and I think this might work pretty well. I would use 4 trigger here. If it comes out at 66, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.

That would be all for this week.