UK minmax_bound came out as expected, and all the other reports also were either as expected or nearly as expected so it was a no trade, and GBP/USD did not move at all.Then at 8:30 a.m. we had bunch of U.S. reports. U.S. Durable Goods came out way much lower than expected so it turned out to be a pretty minmax_bound= trade but very bad for the afterspike trading. I did not trade it with minmax_bound= do it was a no trade for me. Sir Pips traded it in the Diamonds room and they closed with 5 pips loss so it was not that bad either.Tomorrow we are going to have a major holiday in the United States: Thanksgiving. Therefore, trading may be very strange.At 2:00 a.m. we will also have UK Nationwide House Prices. I used to trade it and was able to make a few pips but right now it is not that important report so I am going to skip. If it is going to deviate a lot, GBP/USD may move a little.Other than that, we will not have anything that is tradable.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Forex Signal 4 25th Nov. 2008
1a. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP Annualized and Canadian Retail Sales. Last time we had U.S. GDP annualized (in August), on +0.6 deviation we had only 30 pips move on USD/JPY and eventually it retraced. Well, I think we can give a try with a buy signal on EUR/JPY or USD/JPY if it comes out at 0.0% or higher and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, USD/JPY may move down a little but bad news are not necessarily bad for the USD anymore so I will not be trading negative deviation at all. If anything, I want to trade only a good news with very conservative money management and very small profit target (say, around 15 pips or so).
1b. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Canadian Retail Sales. I will not be trading it at all for a few reasons. The most important is we will have U.S. report at the same time. Also, we did not see decent deviations in past months so it is hard to predict how would it react. I do not want to test it on my account. I prefer not to trade than gamble. I do not gamble.
2. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Confidence. Last month it worked OK but it did not spike instantly so I don't really like trading stuff like that. Also, the deviation was huge and it took USD/JPY 5 minutes to move 45 pips. Sir Pips likes it, I am not really convinced to trade so I am going to write what he says but I will not be trading it myself. The range of expectations is between 30 to 45. If it comes out at 32 or lower, you might sell EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. If it comes out at 44 or higher, you may buy EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. It might work but this is not how I trade.
That's all for Tuesday.
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP Annualized and Canadian Retail Sales. Last time we had U.S. GDP annualized (in August), on +0.6 deviation we had only 30 pips move on USD/JPY and eventually it retraced. Well, I think we can give a try with a buy signal on EUR/JPY or USD/JPY if it comes out at 0.0% or higher and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, USD/JPY may move down a little but bad news are not necessarily bad for the USD anymore so I will not be trading negative deviation at all. If anything, I want to trade only a good news with very conservative money management and very small profit target (say, around 15 pips or so).
1b. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Canadian Retail Sales. I will not be trading it at all for a few reasons. The most important is we will have U.S. report at the same time. Also, we did not see decent deviations in past months so it is hard to predict how would it react. I do not want to test it on my account. I prefer not to trade than gamble. I do not gamble.
2. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Confidence. Last month it worked OK but it did not spike instantly so I don't really like trading stuff like that. Also, the deviation was huge and it took USD/JPY 5 minutes to move 45 pips. Sir Pips likes it, I am not really convinced to trade so I am going to write what he says but I will not be trading it myself. The range of expectations is between 30 to 45. If it comes out at 32 or lower, you might sell EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. If it comes out at 44 or higher, you may buy EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. It might work but this is not how I trade.
That's all for Tuesday.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Firday's Forex Signal
Let's now talk about Friday.
1. Friday, November 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI coming out. If the Core CPI m/m comes out at 0.2% or higher, probably it would be OK to buy USD/CAD but it might be good for a couple of minutes only. If it comes out at -0.2 or lower, probably it would be OK to sell USD/CAD but it will probably retrace as well. In any event, the price might move 30 pips or so. I will not, however, be trading it with SNW. I don't feel it is worthy to take a risk. I made some money on UK Retail Sales, and I am happy with that.
That's all for Friday.
1. Friday, November 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI coming out. If the Core CPI m/m comes out at 0.2% or higher, probably it would be OK to buy USD/CAD but it might be good for a couple of minutes only. If it comes out at -0.2 or lower, probably it would be OK to sell USD/CAD but it will probably retrace as well. In any event, the price might move 30 pips or so. I will not, however, be trading it with SNW. I don't feel it is worthy to take a risk. I made some money on UK Retail Sales, and I am happy with that.
That's all for Friday.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Forex Signal 20th NOV.
First let's review what happened on Wednesday.
At 8:30 a.m. we had US CPI. Both Sir Pips and I were right. It was not tradable with SNW as there was no spike happening so it was good to skip this report, but as far as afterspike is concerned, Sir Pips also correctly predicted that EUR/JPY would go up. He gave a trade in the Diamonds room and people made nice pips there.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales headline m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.9%. If it comes out at -1.5% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at -0.3% or less negative, or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. This might also be tradable if you trade against the spike, that is enter the other way at the top or bottom of the spike when it seems the price action is reversing.
2. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index coming out. This might move the market if the deviation is big like it was last time. If it comes out at -46 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 pips move. If it comes out at -24 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. You may give a try only if spread is very low and you will not get slipped.
That's all for Thursday.
At 8:30 a.m. we had US CPI. Both Sir Pips and I were right. It was not tradable with SNW as there was no spike happening so it was good to skip this report, but as far as afterspike is concerned, Sir Pips also correctly predicted that EUR/JPY would go up. He gave a trade in the Diamonds room and people made nice pips there.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales headline m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.9%. If it comes out at -1.5% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at -0.3% or less negative, or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. This might also be tradable if you trade against the spike, that is enter the other way at the top or bottom of the spike when it seems the price action is reversing.
2. Thursday, November 20th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index coming out. This might move the market if the deviation is big like it was last time. If it comes out at -46 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 pips move. If it comes out at -24 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. You may give a try only if spread is very low and you will not get slipped.
That's all for Thursday.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Today's Signal
Let's first review what happened on Friday.
U.S. Retail Sales came out lower and USD/JPY moved down by over 20 pips but then it reversed. One thing for sure, I did say not to trade it on EUR/USD or other pairs, and surely it did not work there. USD/JPY was not the best trade either but at least not as horrible as EUR/USD trade would be.
U.S. Consumer sentiment came out a bit better than expected, not enough to enter a trade.
Let's now talk about Monday.
1. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing coming out. If it comes out at -40 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move. If it comes out at -12 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but it might be an opportunity to make a few pips. Do not overlaverage yourself on this, however.
2. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. A deviation of 1.0 may work on USD/JPY either at the time of the release or 15 minutes later when the stock market opens but I am not going to trade it.
That's all for Monday.
U.S. Retail Sales came out lower and USD/JPY moved down by over 20 pips but then it reversed. One thing for sure, I did say not to trade it on EUR/USD or other pairs, and surely it did not work there. USD/JPY was not the best trade either but at least not as horrible as EUR/USD trade would be.
U.S. Consumer sentiment came out a bit better than expected, not enough to enter a trade.
Let's now talk about Monday.
1. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing coming out. If it comes out at -40 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move. If it comes out at -12 or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but it might be an opportunity to make a few pips. Do not overlaverage yourself on this, however.
2. Monday, October 17th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. A deviation of 1.0 may work on USD/JPY either at the time of the release or 15 minutes later when the stock market opens but I am not going to trade it.
That's all for Monday.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Today's Signal
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (Core). It is expected to come out at -1.2%. This is not as hot report as it used to be but we might see 30 pips spike on USD/JPY if it deviates by 0.5. Therefore, if it comes out at -1.7% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move; if it comes out at -0.7% or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. Do not trade it on other pairs than USD/JPY because currently it is tradable on USD/JPY only. I do not recommend trading against it because last month it would work whereas two months ago it did not work at all. That basically means that it can either move even more or retrace and go the other way. Probably right before the report we would have much clearer situation based on technicals what to do; I cannot tell you that now.
Then at 9:55 a.m. we will have Consumer Sentiment. I am not going to trade this report. If anything, maybe a huge positive surprise would move USD/JPY, something like +10 deviation, but even that can be very risky. I am making enough money with more reliable reports so I am going to skip this one.
That would be all for Friday
Then at 9:55 a.m. we will have Consumer Sentiment. I am not going to trade this report. If anything, maybe a huge positive surprise would move USD/JPY, something like +10 deviation, but even that can be very risky. I am making enough money with more reliable reports so I am going to skip this one.
That would be all for Friday
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Today's Signal
Let's talk about Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Claimant Count Change. It is expected to come out at 40K. It is not tradable with the SNW, in my opinion. Because of BOE Inflation report coming out an hour later, I would skip this report at all.
2. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have BOE Inflation report. This is not for beginners, and if you want to trade it, please watch the video for more detailed information.
3. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 a.m. we will have Retail Sales headline coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.4. If it comes out at 1.0% or better and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other, if it comes out at -0.2% or more negative and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move as well. Be very careful because spreads tend to be very high for NZ reports.
That's all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Claimant Count Change. It is expected to come out at 40K. It is not tradable with the SNW, in my opinion. Because of BOE Inflation report coming out an hour later, I would skip this report at all.
2. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have BOE Inflation report. This is not for beginners, and if you want to trade it, please watch the video for more detailed information.
3. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 a.m. we will have Retail Sales headline coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.4. If it comes out at 1.0% or better and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other, if it comes out at -0.2% or more negative and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move as well. Be very careful because spreads tend to be very high for NZ reports.
That's all for Wednesday.
MAJOR HEADLINES
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
* US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -50 vs. -49 expected
* Australia Nov. Westpac Consumer Confidence out at 4.3%
* Australia Q3 Wage Cost Index rose 4.1% YoY vs. 4.2% expected
* China Oct. Retail Sales rose 22.0% YoY as expected.
* Japan Oct. Consumer Confidence out at 29.8 vs. 29.5 and 31.8 in Sep.
Events Today:
* UK Oct. Jobless Claims Change (0930)
* UK Sep. Average Earnings (0930)
* UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (0930)
* EuroZone Sep. Industrial Production (1000)
* US Treasury Secretary Paulson to Speak (1530)
* New Zealand Oct. Business PMI (2130)
* New Zealand Sep. Retail Sales (2145)
* Japan Oct. Domestic CGPI (2350)
* China Oct. Industrial Production (0200)
Market Comment:
The EUR certainly received no support from a better than expected ZEW survey yesterday (-53.5 vs. -63 expected) as the focus on continued risk aversion spelled trouble for the single currency and EURUSD and EURJPY posted new two-week lows late yesterday and overnight, though these lows haven't held into the early part of the European session today. The EU's Juncker was also out with extremely dovish talk that helped talk EURGBP down from new highs set yesterday. The inability to hold new momentum-style breaks across markets suggests some of the energy is coming out of the market. One reason yesterday's moves may have been a bit hesitant yesterday was that the US bond market was closed yesterday for veteran's day.
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One sign of the inability of markets to work up a sustainable good mood was yesterday's announcement from Fannie Mae of new measures aimed at stemming foreclosures on delinquent mortgage holders. The announcement triggered a sharp rally in equity indices yesterday that had the usual effect of weakening the USD and JPY, but the rally was quickly erased within an hour. The way that these rally attempts are quickly erased is a sign that risk aversion predominates, though the bears also seem to have a hard time sustaining momentum. Today, Mr. Paulson will be out speaking about the TARP plan, and we are likely to see him announcing new directions for the plan and a request for more money, as the government has already burned through most of the first $350 billion of the $700 billion package, and Congress has a lot more to say about how the remaining half of the fund is to be spent. Many are looking toward Detroit as lawmakers seem to be gearing up for big bailout of the US automakers, who are quickly burning through their remaining cash reserves. Whatever Paulson's announcement, today may offer another opportunity to see a weak attempt at a rally in risk appetite that could be worth fading.
Hopes are growing that this weekend's G20 meeting will see some kind of new and large stimulus plan aimed at the developing economies. This morning's FT is trumpeting World Bank plans to stimulate developing countries to the tune of $100 billion. It is hard to imagine the G20 taking dramatic new steps with a US president in the final two months of his term, though some kind of loan package is inevitable. Funding for further programs will be tough to come by for developing nations in the future as all major powers are hard pressed on the domestic front and generosity could fade with tough times at home. Some speculate that funds for a bailout could come from Chinese and other sovereign wealth funds, but as we saw from the size of the recent Chinese stimulus package: these funds may be seen as domestic spending warchests more than anything in this cycle of economic weakness. Any broader efforts by the G20 will have to await a president Obama, and the G20 is set to reconvene by late February.
* US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -50 vs. -49 expected
* Australia Nov. Westpac Consumer Confidence out at 4.3%
* Australia Q3 Wage Cost Index rose 4.1% YoY vs. 4.2% expected
* China Oct. Retail Sales rose 22.0% YoY as expected.
* Japan Oct. Consumer Confidence out at 29.8 vs. 29.5 and 31.8 in Sep.
Events Today:
* UK Oct. Jobless Claims Change (0930)
* UK Sep. Average Earnings (0930)
* UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (0930)
* EuroZone Sep. Industrial Production (1000)
* US Treasury Secretary Paulson to Speak (1530)
* New Zealand Oct. Business PMI (2130)
* New Zealand Sep. Retail Sales (2145)
* Japan Oct. Domestic CGPI (2350)
* China Oct. Industrial Production (0200)
Market Comment:
The EUR certainly received no support from a better than expected ZEW survey yesterday (-53.5 vs. -63 expected) as the focus on continued risk aversion spelled trouble for the single currency and EURUSD and EURJPY posted new two-week lows late yesterday and overnight, though these lows haven't held into the early part of the European session today. The EU's Juncker was also out with extremely dovish talk that helped talk EURGBP down from new highs set yesterday. The inability to hold new momentum-style breaks across markets suggests some of the energy is coming out of the market. One reason yesterday's moves may have been a bit hesitant yesterday was that the US bond market was closed yesterday for veteran's day.
-
One sign of the inability of markets to work up a sustainable good mood was yesterday's announcement from Fannie Mae of new measures aimed at stemming foreclosures on delinquent mortgage holders. The announcement triggered a sharp rally in equity indices yesterday that had the usual effect of weakening the USD and JPY, but the rally was quickly erased within an hour. The way that these rally attempts are quickly erased is a sign that risk aversion predominates, though the bears also seem to have a hard time sustaining momentum. Today, Mr. Paulson will be out speaking about the TARP plan, and we are likely to see him announcing new directions for the plan and a request for more money, as the government has already burned through most of the first $350 billion of the $700 billion package, and Congress has a lot more to say about how the remaining half of the fund is to be spent. Many are looking toward Detroit as lawmakers seem to be gearing up for big bailout of the US automakers, who are quickly burning through their remaining cash reserves. Whatever Paulson's announcement, today may offer another opportunity to see a weak attempt at a rally in risk appetite that could be worth fading.
Hopes are growing that this weekend's G20 meeting will see some kind of new and large stimulus plan aimed at the developing economies. This morning's FT is trumpeting World Bank plans to stimulate developing countries to the tune of $100 billion. It is hard to imagine the G20 taking dramatic new steps with a US president in the final two months of his term, though some kind of loan package is inevitable. Funding for further programs will be tough to come by for developing nations in the future as all major powers are hard pressed on the domestic front and generosity could fade with tough times at home. Some speculate that funds for a bailout could come from Chinese and other sovereign wealth funds, but as we saw from the size of the recent Chinese stimulus package: these funds may be seen as domestic spending warchests more than anything in this cycle of economic weakness. Any broader efforts by the G20 will have to await a president Obama, and the G20 is set to reconvene by late February.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Events Today
Events Today:
Norway Oct. CPI and Producer Prices (0900)
UK Oct. PPI Input/Output (0930)
Canada Oct. Housing Starts (1315)
Canada Sep. New Housing Price Index (1330)
US Treasury's Kashkari to discuss TARP (1500)
Japan Sep. Current Account (2350)
UK Oct. BRC Retail Sales Monitor (0001)
UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance (0001)
Australia Oct. NAB Business Confidence (0030)
China Oct. CPI (0200)
Market Comment:
China gets serious on stimulation
China announced a massive CNY 4 trillion stimulus package over the weekend as the global economic growth deceleration is finally hitting the Chinese growth miracle with full force. This enormous package represents some 20% of Chinese GDP, making the puny 1-2% stimulus package ideas being bandied about by US lawmakers look puny in comparison. Some have suggested that growth rates of 5-6% would represent a truly hard landing for the China due to its historic shift to an industrial economy that creates massive pressures to increase the numbers of jobs as the population migrates from the countryside to the city. China will be sorely pressed to avoid this hard landing due to the imbalances in its economy that focus so heavily on production rather than consumption. For now, markets have decided that this is good news, but the rally in risk it has brought on is unlikely to last beyond the shortest term.
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Heavy supply in new US treasuries this week
This week will be an interesting one for measuring the demand for US Treasuries, as the US treasury will auction some $55 billion of securities this week, the most in one week since 2004. The amount of issuance arriving in the coming year is mind-boggling and one wonders where the buyers will come from. If yields begin to rise due to insufficient treasury demand while economic data remains weak, this could add to pressure on the markets. Keep an eye on the US 10-year note futures, therefore. Signs of strong demand would be USD bullish.
CAD: still on borrowed time
The Canadian employment data for October released on Friday was far better than expected, but as we discussed, the Canadian economy has historically been closely coupled with the US economy and will not escape its growing negative drag. USDCAD should eventually try back toward the 1.3000 area and we would expect the pair to find support in the 1.1500-1.1800 area.
Norway Oct. CPI and Producer Prices (0900)
UK Oct. PPI Input/Output (0930)
Canada Oct. Housing Starts (1315)
Canada Sep. New Housing Price Index (1330)
US Treasury's Kashkari to discuss TARP (1500)
Japan Sep. Current Account (2350)
UK Oct. BRC Retail Sales Monitor (0001)
UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance (0001)
Australia Oct. NAB Business Confidence (0030)
China Oct. CPI (0200)
Market Comment:
China gets serious on stimulation
China announced a massive CNY 4 trillion stimulus package over the weekend as the global economic growth deceleration is finally hitting the Chinese growth miracle with full force. This enormous package represents some 20% of Chinese GDP, making the puny 1-2% stimulus package ideas being bandied about by US lawmakers look puny in comparison. Some have suggested that growth rates of 5-6% would represent a truly hard landing for the China due to its historic shift to an industrial economy that creates massive pressures to increase the numbers of jobs as the population migrates from the countryside to the city. China will be sorely pressed to avoid this hard landing due to the imbalances in its economy that focus so heavily on production rather than consumption. For now, markets have decided that this is good news, but the rally in risk it has brought on is unlikely to last beyond the shortest term.
-
Heavy supply in new US treasuries this week
This week will be an interesting one for measuring the demand for US Treasuries, as the US treasury will auction some $55 billion of securities this week, the most in one week since 2004. The amount of issuance arriving in the coming year is mind-boggling and one wonders where the buyers will come from. If yields begin to rise due to insufficient treasury demand while economic data remains weak, this could add to pressure on the markets. Keep an eye on the US 10-year note futures, therefore. Signs of strong demand would be USD bullish.
CAD: still on borrowed time
The Canadian employment data for October released on Friday was far better than expected, but as we discussed, the Canadian economy has historically been closely coupled with the US economy and will not escape its growing negative drag. USDCAD should eventually try back toward the 1.3000 area and we would expect the pair to find support in the 1.1500-1.1800 area.
Nov 11 Forex Signal
Let's talk about Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, November 11th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment. It is expected to come out at -63 but there are some estimates as low as -81. Because of so big range of expectations and two failed reports past two months, maybe it would be a good idea to enter after the spike with reverse triggers. Here is an example that might be workable: if it comes out at -55 or less negative, this might be a selling opportunity on EUR/USD right after the price pops up (so you would get better price to sell). If it comes out at -70 or more negative, I would buy EUR/USD after the price would go down so I would get much discounted price. This is not a spike trading, this is scalping, so don't put a lot of money on this. As far as spike trading is concerned, I would try to enter a sell trade on EUR/USD, with SNW, if the number comes out at -80 or more negative, and if spreads are not crazy but I would exit ASAP (as soon as possible) because this would probably reverse anyway. If it comes out at -49 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD with SNW, if spreads are not crazy, and also exit ASAP.:)
1. Tuesday, November 11th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment. It is expected to come out at -63 but there are some estimates as low as -81. Because of so big range of expectations and two failed reports past two months, maybe it would be a good idea to enter after the spike with reverse triggers. Here is an example that might be workable: if it comes out at -55 or less negative, this might be a selling opportunity on EUR/USD right after the price pops up (so you would get better price to sell). If it comes out at -70 or more negative, I would buy EUR/USD after the price would go down so I would get much discounted price. This is not a spike trading, this is scalping, so don't put a lot of money on this. As far as spike trading is concerned, I would try to enter a sell trade on EUR/USD, with SNW, if the number comes out at -80 or more negative, and if spreads are not crazy but I would exit ASAP (as soon as possible) because this would probably reverse anyway. If it comes out at -49 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD with SNW, if spreads are not crazy, and also exit ASAP.:)
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Todays' Signal
Hi there my Forex friend
Let's talk about Monday first.
We had two reports coming out.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. It came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.
Then we had Australian Interest rate statement. They did cut the rates, by more than it was expected, and we had a nice price action. I made a lot of pips on a spike trading with the Secret News Weapon software. In fact, I banked 101 pips profit on EUR/AUD but even AUD/USD spiked very nicely. The key to the success was to take the profit as soon as possible (which I did) before the price retraced. Unfortunately, I wish I entered a trade again when it retraced nearly to the pre-release level. Well, I guess 101 pips is good enough for me, however. Sir Pips also gave a trade, good for 22 and 16 pips. The good thing about Sir Pips trades is you are not subject to crazy spreads, and probably you can trade with him using most brokers. Yes, it was less pips than with SNW but you cannot go bankrupt when you make a profit, right?
I cannot give any advice what brokers work with the Secret News Weapon software because it varies from user to user. It all depends on your computer you have, on your internet connection, even on your trade size and account number. I hear very good and very bad reviews about the same broker, that is some people are able to enter a trade whereas some others are not. The best what I can advice is to try a few brokers and see how it goes.
On Tuesday there is nothing to trade at all, sorry guys, no signal for Tuesday. Check our next signal
Let's talk about Monday first.
We had two reports coming out.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. It came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.
Then we had Australian Interest rate statement. They did cut the rates, by more than it was expected, and we had a nice price action. I made a lot of pips on a spike trading with the Secret News Weapon software. In fact, I banked 101 pips profit on EUR/AUD but even AUD/USD spiked very nicely. The key to the success was to take the profit as soon as possible (which I did) before the price retraced. Unfortunately, I wish I entered a trade again when it retraced nearly to the pre-release level. Well, I guess 101 pips is good enough for me, however. Sir Pips also gave a trade, good for 22 and 16 pips. The good thing about Sir Pips trades is you are not subject to crazy spreads, and probably you can trade with him using most brokers. Yes, it was less pips than with SNW but you cannot go bankrupt when you make a profit, right?
I cannot give any advice what brokers work with the Secret News Weapon software because it varies from user to user. It all depends on your computer you have, on your internet connection, even on your trade size and account number. I hear very good and very bad reviews about the same broker, that is some people are able to enter a trade whereas some others are not. The best what I can advice is to try a few brokers and see how it goes.
On Tuesday there is nothing to trade at all, sorry guys, no signal for Tuesday. Check our next signal
Monday, November 3, 2008
November 3rd signal
On Monday there are two reports that are worthy mentioning.
1. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. Because expectations are kind of wide on this report, I would use bigger triggers here. If it comes out at 39.0 or less, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 43.5 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but if it is going to deviate, there might be some room to make a few pips.
2. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest rate. It is expected to come out at 5.50%, down from 6.00%. This is very early to say how to trade it because the expectations may change but it seems if it comes out at 5.75% or 6.00%, this would be good for the Australian dollar because they did not cut as much as it was widely expected so it would be buy signal for AUD/USD, and please take your profits rather quickly. I would be careful with +0.25 trigger, however, because it is still a cut on interest rates.. If it comes out at 5.50%, then it is hard to say how the price would react so it is no trade. If it comes out at 5.25% or lower, than it would be bad for the Australian dollar, and I would sell AUD/USD and expect 50 pips move. I would take profits rather quickly, just in case.
That would be all for Monday.
1. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. Because expectations are kind of wide on this report, I would use bigger triggers here. If it comes out at 39.0 or less, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 43.5 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. This is not a killer report but if it is going to deviate, there might be some room to make a few pips.
2. Monday, November 3rd, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest rate. It is expected to come out at 5.50%, down from 6.00%. This is very early to say how to trade it because the expectations may change but it seems if it comes out at 5.75% or 6.00%, this would be good for the Australian dollar because they did not cut as much as it was widely expected so it would be buy signal for AUD/USD, and please take your profits rather quickly. I would be careful with +0.25 trigger, however, because it is still a cut on interest rates.. If it comes out at 5.50%, then it is hard to say how the price would react so it is no trade. If it comes out at 5.25% or lower, than it would be bad for the Australian dollar, and I would sell AUD/USD and expect 50 pips move. I would take profits rather quickly, just in case.
That would be all for Monday.
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