Forex Signal 21th August

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

On Wednesday we had Canadian Retail Sales. The headline came out nearly as expected but the core number deviated by 0.9%. USD/CAD and EUR/CAD moved down by a little but without a support from the headline number it retraced pretty fast. If you traded EUR/CAD and your spread was not crazy, probably you managed to take a few pips profit.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. I think I would like to see 0.5 deviation on m/m number but even 0.3 deviation can move the market. The problem with the smaller deviation is we will also get a revision and the y/y number so the smaller deviation you use, the higher risk of conflict is. With no conflict or even some support from the other numbers, 0.3 deviation should give you a nice move. The problem is you don't know if it we are going to get a conflict so I would not use such low trigger. I still think, however, 0.5 deviation should be good enough and in case of a conflict, it should be possible to exit at BE or a small loss. If you are more aggressive player, you may want to enter at 0.4 deviation. According to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at -0.2% but according to ForexFactory it is going to come out at -0.3% so let's say the consensus is -0.25%. So, if it comes out at +0.2% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.7% or lower (more negative), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. Alternatively, you can trade GBP/JPY and you may want to trade both. Recently, we see price actions retracing pretty fast so I would rather take a profit pretty soon.

2. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike up as well. It seems a lot of trades also pay attention to the headline m/m number but because CPI reports retrace very fast, I would not use 0.2 deviation on the headline number. If you really have to trade it, try 0.3 deviation on the headline number or 0.2 deviation on the core number, whichever comes first. According to ForexFactory calendar it is expected to come out at 0.3% but according to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at 0.4% so let's say it is expected to come out at 0.35%. If the headline m/m comes out at 0.6% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well. I will probably enter a trade at 0.7% or 0.0% on the headline number as I am not crazy about trading CPI reports anymore. If we get a tradable deviation, you MUST take your profit immediately. This may literally retrace in 10 seconds, and it might be a good idea to enter a trade at the top or bottom of the spike in the opposite direction. Most likely I will prepare a few automatic levels to be executed should the spike occur. Of course, such trades would be much smaller than a spike trade. THIS IS A VERY RISKY REPORT TO TRADE, especially if you trade the headline number.

3. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims. You may try to scalp a few pips on USD/JPY if it deviates by about 25K but that would be a small trade and be prepared to exit at BE. If it comes out at 470K or higher, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move. If it comes out at 419K or lower, that would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well.

4. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Well, I don't know what to expect from this indicator. Sometimes the price moves pretty well, sometimes it does not move the market at all. I guess you can try to trade it with 8 deviation if you have fixed or very low spread and you are around your trading station but I most likely will skip it.

That would be all for Thursday.