Let's talk about Friday.
Let's talk about friday events.
1. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP m/m coming out as well as Raw
Material Index and some other reports out of Canada. We will also have
a few U.S. reports such as U.S. Core PCE or U.S. Personal Income. For
the afterspike trading: focus first on the U.S. reports. Personal Income
is expected to come out at -0.2%, by the way. If Personal Income comes
out at -0.7% and Personal Spending comes out at -0.3%, I would sell USD/JPY
or buy EUR/USD, and look for 30 pips or so. If either of them comes out
lower by 1.0 and the other one would not conflict, this would also be
a sell signal on USD/JPY or buy on EUR/USD. If U.S. Personal Income comes
out at 0.3% and Personal Spending comes out at 0.7%, this would be buy
on USD/JPY or sell on EUR/USD. Or, if either comes out higher by 1.0,
and the other one is not conflicting, this should work as well. U.S.
Core PCE is not a big deal.
2. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
For the Canadian GDP: 0.5 deviation on the GDP Annualized or 0.2 deviation
on GDP m/m should be enough to move EUR/CAD pretty well. Raw Material index,
when conflicting, can be a problem but other than that, this should be
tradable if you have SNW software. Keep in mind that we might see a very
fast retracement and Canadian GDP is not as hot as it used to be but
I still think this is worthy to give a try (Sir Pips does not agree, well,
time will show...). I cannot access FPA Calendar now to give you a few
examples, but I do remember that USD/CAD may not move at all whereas
EUR/USD can move pretty well. At least this was a case last month,
I believe. I would actually prefer to check charts to make sure 0.2 on
m/m is not too risky to trade but I am not able to do that now. Keep in
mind that EUR/CAD may and usually have higher spread than USD/CAD but
I would really forget about USD/CAD here. Higher GDP is good for the
Canadian dollar so it would be sell on EUR/CAD, and lower GDP is bad
for the Canadian dollar and this would be a buy signal on EUR/CAD. Too
\bad I cannot post this on FPA forum so I am not leaving specific triggers
as I need to work more on this, and I am not able to update emails like
I would be able to update a post on FPA website. If you want to play safe,
you may try 0.3 deviation on GDP m/m and 0.2 trigger would be for more
aggressive traders if they can get fast, know how to exit fast and have
a reasonable spread on EUR/CAD.
3. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:42 we will have Chicago PMI. You can trade it only if you are able
to get the number at 9:42 a.m., NOT 9:45 a.m. If it comes out at 52.0 or
higher, it should be OK to sell GBP/USD or EUR/USD and look for 30 pips
move. If it comes out at 47.9 or lower, this should be OK to buy EUR/USD
or GDP/USD. I would personally want to see at least 3 deviation as I saw
quite high spreads on previous releases and I cannot hook up SNW with that.
That would be all for Friday.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
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Not All Candlestick Reversal Patterns Are Created Equal.
Candlestick Trading For Maximum Profits
Most courses or books on the subject will teach you the signals and maybe a little about using indicators to find a
stock at the bottom or top of a trend. But what they don't tell you that those same signals can happen at any point on
any chart you look at. Just as an example, lets take the bullish engulfing reversal pattern (shown at left). The bullish
engulfing pattern is an extremely powerful reversal signal and most will tell you that. They show illustrated charts that
will demonstrate the bullish engulfing pattern that formed prior to a nice uptrend as it was found at the bottom of the
previous downtrend. Well, it's easy to show you what's happened in the past as if this happens every time a bullish
engulfing pattern forms on a chart! What they don't tell you is, this same pattern can show itself anywhere on a stock
chart...not just at the bottom! Check it out for yourself! Find a candlestick chart of a stock that trends up and down and
see for yourself. You'll find the bullish engulfing pattern in the middle of up trends, tops of trends, down trends and
bottom of trends and only one of those will make you money. The same is true for all candlestick reversal patterns.
The course includes two eBooks. We start from the basics of candlestick charting and work our way to advanced methods of spotting reversal patterns. You will learn:
- Candlestick history to present.
- Candlestick theory.
- Candlestick comparisons.
- Bearish candles.
- Bullish candles.
- Candlestick psychology.
- Candlestick reversal patterns.
- Conditions that enhance reversal pattern signals.
- Reversal pattern psychology.
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Once you have studied and learned the written portion of the course we move on to advanced video training. In these
five videos and handbook you will master:
- Reading a candlestick chart.
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- Market Psychology.
- Candlestick price patterns.
- The candlestick trading system.
- How to apply my candlestick trading system.
- Bullish and bearish trade entry points.
- How to trade my system profitably.
- How to quickly find candlestick trades each day after the market closes.
Much More!
Most courses or books on the subject will teach you the signals and maybe a little about using indicators to find a
stock at the bottom or top of a trend. But what they don't tell you that those same signals can happen at any point on
any chart you look at. Just as an example, lets take the bullish engulfing reversal pattern (shown at left). The bullish
engulfing pattern is an extremely powerful reversal signal and most will tell you that. They show illustrated charts that
will demonstrate the bullish engulfing pattern that formed prior to a nice uptrend as it was found at the bottom of the
previous downtrend. Well, it's easy to show you what's happened in the past as if this happens every time a bullish
engulfing pattern forms on a chart! What they don't tell you is, this same pattern can show itself anywhere on a stock
chart...not just at the bottom! Check it out for yourself! Find a candlestick chart of a stock that trends up and down and
see for yourself. You'll find the bullish engulfing pattern in the middle of up trends, tops of trends, down trends and
bottom of trends and only one of those will make you money. The same is true for all candlestick reversal patterns.
The course includes two eBooks. We start from the basics of candlestick charting and work our way to advanced methods of spotting reversal patterns. You will learn:
- Candlestick history to present.
- Candlestick theory.
- Candlestick comparisons.
- Bearish candles.
- Bullish candles.
- Candlestick psychology.
- Candlestick reversal patterns.
- Conditions that enhance reversal pattern signals.
- Reversal pattern psychology.
- All with plenty of illustrated examples and charts!
Once you have studied and learned the written portion of the course we move on to advanced video training. In these
five videos and handbook you will master:
- Reading a candlestick chart.
- Candlestick reversal pattern recognition.
- Market Psychology.
- Candlestick price patterns.
- The candlestick trading system.
- How to apply my candlestick trading system.
- Bullish and bearish trade entry points.
- How to trade my system profitably.
- How to quickly find candlestick trades each day after the market closes.
Much More!
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Forex Signal for August 28th
Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.
It came out higher than expected by 1.4, from -0.7% expected to 0.7%,
and the headline came out higher as well. In the first minute it moved
by only 10 pips but it was a beginning of the up trend and eventually
USD/JPY moved by 80 pips. It seems it worked better so maybe next time
I will focus more on it.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Prices m/m which is expected
to come out at -1.5%. If it comes out at -2.0% or lower (more negative),
I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other hand, if it
comes out at -1.0% or less negative, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips
move as well.
2. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. 2nd Q GDP Annualized Prelim. Rev. which is
expected to come out at 2.7%. Because this is annualized, I would use 0.4
trigger here. If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and
look for 40 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at 3.1%
or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 40 pips move as well. If we get
a signal, make sure there is no significant conflict with U.S. Initial
obless Claims. Remember, higher IJC is bad for the U.S. dollar (selling
pressure on USD/JPY) and lower IJC is good for the U.S. dollar (buying
pressure on USD/JPY). Also, be careful of a possible whipsaw/reversal
effect as this was doing that before.
That would be all for Thursday.
It came out higher than expected by 1.4, from -0.7% expected to 0.7%,
and the headline came out higher as well. In the first minute it moved
by only 10 pips but it was a beginning of the up trend and eventually
USD/JPY moved by 80 pips. It seems it worked better so maybe next time
I will focus more on it.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Prices m/m which is expected
to come out at -1.5%. If it comes out at -2.0% or lower (more negative),
I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other hand, if it
comes out at -1.0% or less negative, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips
move as well.
2. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. 2nd Q GDP Annualized Prelim. Rev. which is
expected to come out at 2.7%. Because this is annualized, I would use 0.4
trigger here. If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and
look for 40 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at 3.1%
or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 40 pips move as well. If we get
a signal, make sure there is no significant conflict with U.S. Initial
obless Claims. Remember, higher IJC is bad for the U.S. dollar (selling
pressure on USD/JPY) and lower IJC is good for the U.S. dollar (buying
pressure on USD/JPY). Also, be careful of a possible whipsaw/reversal
effect as this was doing that before.
That would be all for Thursday.
Forex Trading Signal 08/27/08 - Today
Let's talk about Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods. Last month we had a pretty good price action on USD/JPY but nothing impressive on EUR/USD or GDP/USD so I still don't trust this report enough to put any real money on it. Even with that great deviation we had last month, usually half of the time it works great and the other half of the time not so great. If the price is just about to go one or the other way and this report deviates same way, market can use it as an excuse to jump into a trade. This, however, would require you to do some analysis right before the report because as of right now I am not able to tell you which way the price wants to go. The London session may and probably will move currencies one or the other way so most likely the price will be at the other level right before the report. If you are new, skip it. Remember, you don't have to follow what we write here so if you want to trade it, go ahead. I will not be trading it.
That would be all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods. Last month we had a pretty good price action on USD/JPY but nothing impressive on EUR/USD or GDP/USD so I still don't trust this report enough to put any real money on it. Even with that great deviation we had last month, usually half of the time it works great and the other half of the time not so great. If the price is just about to go one or the other way and this report deviates same way, market can use it as an excuse to jump into a trade. This, however, would require you to do some analysis right before the report because as of right now I am not able to tell you which way the price wants to go. The London session may and probably will move currencies one or the other way so most likely the price will be at the other level right before the report. If you are new, skip it. Remember, you don't have to follow what we write here so if you want to trade it, go ahead. I will not be trading it.
That would be all for Wednesday.
Major Pairs at Key Levels
Dollar's rally is still being held by key levels in against some major currencies. GBP/USD recovers after hitting 1.83
level, AUD/USD is drawing support from 0.85. USD/CHF is still struggling around 1.1. Momentum in EUR/USD is not
convincing too. Dollar is struggling to find follow through buying with oil still held inside range of 112 and 118 level
and will probably need a break out there to give clear direction. On the other hand, note that focus in the major pairs
will remain on near term levels mentioned in out technical outlook reports and as long as these levels holds, there is
still no change in dollar's near term bullish outlook ye
level, AUD/USD is drawing support from 0.85. USD/CHF is still struggling around 1.1. Momentum in EUR/USD is not
convincing too. Dollar is struggling to find follow through buying with oil still held inside range of 112 and 118 level
and will probably need a break out there to give clear direction. On the other hand, note that focus in the major pairs
will remain on near term levels mentioned in out technical outlook reports and as long as these levels holds, there is
still no change in dollar's near term bullish outlook ye
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Trading Signals for August 26
Hello and welcome to news trading signals.
Time: 9:00am. Event: German IFO Business expectations
Previous: 90.0. Forecast: 90.3.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 91.8 or higher for 30 pips or more in the first 5 minutes.
Sell EURUSD if it is 88.8 or lower for 30 pips.
German IFO Business climate m/m comes out at the same time. Although historical performance shows the 2 always move in one direction, but pay close attention just in case there is a contradiction.
You may straddle the report.
Time: 3:00pm. Event: USD New Home Sales.
Previous: 530K. Forecast: 530K.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 550K or higher for 20pips or more in the first minute.
Sell USDJPY if it is 510K. A sell signal may do better than a buy signal this time.
That will be all for Tuesday August 26.
Time: 9:00am. Event: German IFO Business expectations
Previous: 90.0. Forecast: 90.3.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 91.8 or higher for 30 pips or more in the first 5 minutes.
Sell EURUSD if it is 88.8 or lower for 30 pips.
German IFO Business climate m/m comes out at the same time. Although historical performance shows the 2 always move in one direction, but pay close attention just in case there is a contradiction.
You may straddle the report.
Time: 3:00pm. Event: USD New Home Sales.
Previous: 530K. Forecast: 530K.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 550K or higher for 20pips or more in the first minute.
Sell USDJPY if it is 510K. A sell signal may do better than a buy signal this time.
That will be all for Tuesday August 26.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Dollar Edges Higher
Dollar Edges Higher, Focus on Existing Home Sales
===========================================
Dollar edges further higher in a quiet start of the day. Weakness in Sterling is particular apparent as GBP/USD dives
below 1.85 level. Euro, Aussie, Swissy all weakens against the greenback too but is still holding above last week's
low. Technically speaking, outlook is still rather mixed but favor is mildly in the case that last week's pull back in the
dollar has completed already and hence, more upside is in favor for the greenback this week. Though, the major
currencies will need to break through last week's low to confirm.
More......
Click here for our Action Insight Forex Report for today.
http://www.actionforex.com/contentsection/action-insight/
===========================================
Dollar edges further higher in a quiet start of the day. Weakness in Sterling is particular apparent as GBP/USD dives
below 1.85 level. Euro, Aussie, Swissy all weakens against the greenback too but is still holding above last week's
low. Technically speaking, outlook is still rather mixed but favor is mildly in the case that last week's pull back in the
dollar has completed already and hence, more upside is in favor for the greenback this week. Though, the major
currencies will need to break through last week's low to confirm.
More......
Click here for our Action Insight Forex Report for today.
http://www.actionforex.com/contentsection/action-insight/
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Forex Signal for 25th August
1. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales. Last month it did not hit my trigger (-0.08) but we saw 30 pips move on USD/JPY. This month it is expected to come out at 4.91M and I would use 0.08 deviation. If it comes out at 4.83M or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move move in the first 30 minutes. If it comes out at 5.00M, I would buy USD/JPY and expected 30 pips move as well.
2. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m.
That would be all for Monday.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales. Last month it did not hit my trigger (-0.08) but we saw 30 pips move on USD/JPY. This month it is expected to come out at 4.91M and I would use 0.08 deviation. If it comes out at 4.83M or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move move in the first 30 minutes. If it comes out at 5.00M, I would buy USD/JPY and expected 30 pips move as well.
2. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m.
That would be all for Monday.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Alert
Dollar Soft, Focus on Bernanke
========================
Dollar's pull back against major currencies is still in progress on the back of rebound in oil prices. The greenback is
showing further indication that a short term top is in place and more pull back is anticipated, in particular if commodity
prices rebound further. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is unchanged and more medium term weakness is still
expected from the greenback after completing the current pull back
========================
Dollar's pull back against major currencies is still in progress on the back of rebound in oil prices. The greenback is
showing further indication that a short term top is in place and more pull back is anticipated, in particular if commodity
prices rebound further. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is unchanged and more medium term weakness is still
expected from the greenback after completing the current pull back
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Trading Signals for Friday August 22 2008
Hello and welcome to news trading signals for Wednesday August 21. All time is Lagos time (GMT +1).
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP GDP q/q.
Previous: 0.2%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy GBPUSD if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour.
Sell GBPUSD if it is 0% or lower.
Note: A sell Signal may not work very well with this indicator except with a very wide deviation of say 0.3%.
I wish you all the profits you can make this week.
This is to your success!
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP GDP q/q.
Previous: 0.2%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy GBPUSD if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour.
Sell GBPUSD if it is 0% or lower.
Note: A sell Signal may not work very well with this indicator except with a very wide deviation of say 0.3%.
I wish you all the profits you can make this week.
This is to your success!
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Forex Signal 21th August
Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.
On Wednesday we had Canadian Retail Sales. The headline came out nearly as expected but the core number deviated by 0.9%. USD/CAD and EUR/CAD moved down by a little but without a support from the headline number it retraced pretty fast. If you traded EUR/CAD and your spread was not crazy, probably you managed to take a few pips profit.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. I think I would like to see 0.5 deviation on m/m number but even 0.3 deviation can move the market. The problem with the smaller deviation is we will also get a revision and the y/y number so the smaller deviation you use, the higher risk of conflict is. With no conflict or even some support from the other numbers, 0.3 deviation should give you a nice move. The problem is you don't know if it we are going to get a conflict so I would not use such low trigger. I still think, however, 0.5 deviation should be good enough and in case of a conflict, it should be possible to exit at BE or a small loss. If you are more aggressive player, you may want to enter at 0.4 deviation. According to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at -0.2% but according to ForexFactory it is going to come out at -0.3% so let's say the consensus is -0.25%. So, if it comes out at +0.2% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.7% or lower (more negative), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. Alternatively, you can trade GBP/JPY and you may want to trade both. Recently, we see price actions retracing pretty fast so I would rather take a profit pretty soon.
2. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike up as well. It seems a lot of trades also pay attention to the headline m/m number but because CPI reports retrace very fast, I would not use 0.2 deviation on the headline number. If you really have to trade it, try 0.3 deviation on the headline number or 0.2 deviation on the core number, whichever comes first. According to ForexFactory calendar it is expected to come out at 0.3% but according to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at 0.4% so let's say it is expected to come out at 0.35%. If the headline m/m comes out at 0.6% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well. I will probably enter a trade at 0.7% or 0.0% on the headline number as I am not crazy about trading CPI reports anymore. If we get a tradable deviation, you MUST take your profit immediately. This may literally retrace in 10 seconds, and it might be a good idea to enter a trade at the top or bottom of the spike in the opposite direction. Most likely I will prepare a few automatic levels to be executed should the spike occur. Of course, such trades would be much smaller than a spike trade. THIS IS A VERY RISKY REPORT TO TRADE, especially if you trade the headline number.
3. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims. You may try to scalp a few pips on USD/JPY if it deviates by about 25K but that would be a small trade and be prepared to exit at BE. If it comes out at 470K or higher, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move. If it comes out at 419K or lower, that would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well.
4. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Well, I don't know what to expect from this indicator. Sometimes the price moves pretty well, sometimes it does not move the market at all. I guess you can try to trade it with 8 deviation if you have fixed or very low spread and you are around your trading station but I most likely will skip it.
That would be all for Thursday.
Forex Signal for 20th August
On Wednesday we have two events:
1. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have MPC Meeting Minutes and 7-2 for hold vote
is expected. I don't trade this because I cannot set up SNW for that,
and since I live in Chicago area, that would be a middle of night so
I prefer to take a few hours sleep and wake up fresh for morning reports.
Since I will not be trading it, I do not want to recommend anything.
This is an important report and historically it was able to move GBP/USD
by a lot of pips. However, it also requires you to have paid and reliable
news providers so you can get the vote as fast as possible. What really
counts here is not only the vote but also names, that is who voted how.
This is not for beginners for sure.
2. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales. This might spike up
or down, and reverse so be careful. I would trade the headline number
which is expected to come out at 0.4%. I would trade it with about
0.7 trigger here. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, it would be good
for the Canadian dollar, and I would go short (sell) on USD/CAD, looking for
35 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -0.3% or lower (more negative), I would
go long (buy) on USD/CAD, looking for 35 to 40 pips as well. What is
interesting about this report is a lot of people pay attention to the
core number as well. You may try to set up 0.7 trigger on the core number
as well, and enter a trade on either the headline or the core number,
whichever comes first. Probably smaller deviation could move USD/CAD
as well but we had huge deviations recently so I would be more careful
with smaller deviations as I am not sure how the market is sensitive
to that right now. One thing for sure, if we get a small deviation,
please take your profit rather fast. One more tip: EUR/CAD usually moves
much better...... but pay attention to its spread. Canadian Retail Sales
is a good report to trade but please don't turn a profitable trade into
losing one - take your profits fast, you can always reenter....
That would be all for Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have MPC Meeting Minutes and 7-2 for hold vote
is expected. I don't trade this because I cannot set up SNW for that,
and since I live in Chicago area, that would be a middle of night so
I prefer to take a few hours sleep and wake up fresh for morning reports.
Since I will not be trading it, I do not want to recommend anything.
This is an important report and historically it was able to move GBP/USD
by a lot of pips. However, it also requires you to have paid and reliable
news providers so you can get the vote as fast as possible. What really
counts here is not only the vote but also names, that is who voted how.
This is not for beginners for sure.
2. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales. This might spike up
or down, and reverse so be careful. I would trade the headline number
which is expected to come out at 0.4%. I would trade it with about
0.7 trigger here. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, it would be good
for the Canadian dollar, and I would go short (sell) on USD/CAD, looking for
35 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -0.3% or lower (more negative), I would
go long (buy) on USD/CAD, looking for 35 to 40 pips as well. What is
interesting about this report is a lot of people pay attention to the
core number as well. You may try to set up 0.7 trigger on the core number
as well, and enter a trade on either the headline or the core number,
whichever comes first. Probably smaller deviation could move USD/CAD
as well but we had huge deviations recently so I would be more careful
with smaller deviations as I am not sure how the market is sensitive
to that right now. One thing for sure, if we get a small deviation,
please take your profit rather fast. One more tip: EUR/CAD usually moves
much better...... but pay attention to its spread. Canadian Retail Sales
is a good report to trade but please don't turn a profitable trade into
losing one - take your profits fast, you can always reenter....
That would be all for Wednesday.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
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Forex Signal 19th August
Let's talk about Tuesday then.
1. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE, GERMANY
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is expected to come out at -62. It is a good report to trade, especially if you are a SNW user. I will definitely be trading this report. If you want to be more conservative, you can 8 trigger but if you want to be a bit more aggressive, I think a trigger as low as 5 should be good enough to scalp EUR/USD a bit. I think people will care about this indicator, especially now when Europeans are worried if the Eurozone is about to enter into recession. I will be aggressive myself and I will use 5 trigger myself so if it comes out at -57 or less negative, that means it is good for Euro and EUR/USD may go up by 25 pips. If it comes out at -67 or more negative, that would be bad for Euro and EUR/USD should go down by 25 pips. With +/- 8 deviation you we may see a move as big as 40 pips in first 10 minutes. Right before I would analyze the trend and I would make some adjustment if needed but I think this trade plan should work. Brokers usually keep the spread quite small but keep an eye on it just in case as you do not want to enter with 20 pips spread here. I think EUR/USD is more on sell mode now but keep an eye on 1.4660 level. With a smaller deviation it might be a good idea to take profits around there; with a bigger deviation probably it would be a good idea to keep *some* of the position opened in case this level breaks because if it breaks, EUR/USD may go down pretty well. If you are interested in trading it with SNW, you can sign up here (they have 25 days money back offer):
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2. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have bunch of U.S. reports. Probably one of the most important is U.S. Housing Starts m/m but I will not be trading it because of possible conflict with U.S. Building Permits and U.S. PPI. U.S. PPI itself is not really tradable and I was not trading it for a while but when it deviates, it may cause a weird price action. U.S. Housing Starts is a relatively weak indicator as well but if this deviates a lot, it may also screw up the trade at least a bit. U.S. Housing Starts itself should move USD/JPY by 25 to 30 pips if it deviates by 60K but again, I don't really feel I am going to wake up for this report. If you really have to trade this, try to sell USD/JPY if it comes out at 899K or lower (if the other indicators do not conflict) or buy USD/JPY if it comes out at 1020K or better. I actually think a positive number should move USD/JPY more than a negative number.
That would be all for Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE, GERMANY
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is expected to come out at -62. It is a good report to trade, especially if you are a SNW user. I will definitely be trading this report. If you want to be more conservative, you can 8 trigger but if you want to be a bit more aggressive, I think a trigger as low as 5 should be good enough to scalp EUR/USD a bit. I think people will care about this indicator, especially now when Europeans are worried if the Eurozone is about to enter into recession. I will be aggressive myself and I will use 5 trigger myself so if it comes out at -57 or less negative, that means it is good for Euro and EUR/USD may go up by 25 pips. If it comes out at -67 or more negative, that would be bad for Euro and EUR/USD should go down by 25 pips. With +/- 8 deviation you we may see a move as big as 40 pips in first 10 minutes. Right before I would analyze the trend and I would make some adjustment if needed but I think this trade plan should work. Brokers usually keep the spread quite small but keep an eye on it just in case as you do not want to enter with 20 pips spread here. I think EUR/USD is more on sell mode now but keep an eye on 1.4660 level. With a smaller deviation it might be a good idea to take profits around there; with a bigger deviation probably it would be a good idea to keep *some* of the position opened in case this level breaks because if it breaks, EUR/USD may go down pretty well. If you are interested in trading it with SNW, you can sign up here (they have 25 days money back offer):
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2. Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have bunch of U.S. reports. Probably one of the most important is U.S. Housing Starts m/m but I will not be trading it because of possible conflict with U.S. Building Permits and U.S. PPI. U.S. PPI itself is not really tradable and I was not trading it for a while but when it deviates, it may cause a weird price action. U.S. Housing Starts is a relatively weak indicator as well but if this deviates a lot, it may also screw up the trade at least a bit. U.S. Housing Starts itself should move USD/JPY by 25 to 30 pips if it deviates by 60K but again, I don't really feel I am going to wake up for this report. If you really have to trade this, try to sell USD/JPY if it comes out at 899K or lower (if the other indicators do not conflict) or buy USD/JPY if it comes out at 1020K or better. I actually think a positive number should move USD/JPY more than a negative number.
That would be all for Tuesday.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Forex Signal for August 18th
Let's first review what happened on Friday.
We had U.S. Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence. All of them came out too close to expectations to enter a trade. Nothing to review.
Quite honestly, nothing is will be happening on Monday too. Stay away from New Zealand CPI, this is really not tradable.
1. Monday, August 18th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have RBA Meeting Minutes coming out. You cannot trade it with SNW, this is not for beginners either. If you are a pro trader, you don't need my help. Watch the video if you wish.
That would be all for Monday.
We had U.S. Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence. All of them came out too close to expectations to enter a trade. Nothing to review.
Quite honestly, nothing is will be happening on Monday too. Stay away from New Zealand CPI, this is really not tradable.
1. Monday, August 18th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have RBA Meeting Minutes coming out. You cannot trade it with SNW, this is not for beginners either. If you are a pro trader, you don't need my help. Watch the video if you wish.
That would be all for Monday.
Friday, August 15, 2008
15th August Signal
Hi there my Forex friend :)
Let's first review what happened on Thursday.
We had German GDP coming out. It came out higher than expected and we saw a pretty nice price action on EUR/USD. It spiked up by 30 pips and eventually it went even higher.
At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI which came out higher than expected. EUR/USD spiked down by about 20 pips and then it immediately reversed. I left a note for SNW users how to approach this report, I am sorry I did not leave that comment here about how dangerous this report can be. I hope you made money on the reversal or did not lose (or even make) money on the spike.
Retail Sales out of New Zealand come out higher than expected and we saw a pretty good price action on NZD/USD. Nice 35 pips move.
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing Survey coming out. We should have a good trade if it deviates by 10. If it comes out at +6.0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move. If it comes out at -14 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move as well. Smaller deviation should work but I would rather to stay more conservative here.
2. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. Skip it.
3. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. With 0.4 trigger we may see 15 pips move. Not worthy to take a risk. Skip it.
4. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment and I think this might work pretty well. I would use 4 trigger here. If it comes out at 66, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.
That would be all for this week.
Let's first review what happened on Thursday.
We had German GDP coming out. It came out higher than expected and we saw a pretty nice price action on EUR/USD. It spiked up by 30 pips and eventually it went even higher.
At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI which came out higher than expected. EUR/USD spiked down by about 20 pips and then it immediately reversed. I left a note for SNW users how to approach this report, I am sorry I did not leave that comment here about how dangerous this report can be. I hope you made money on the reversal or did not lose (or even make) money on the spike.
Retail Sales out of New Zealand come out higher than expected and we saw a pretty good price action on NZD/USD. Nice 35 pips move.
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing Survey coming out. We should have a good trade if it deviates by 10. If it comes out at +6.0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move. If it comes out at -14 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move as well. Smaller deviation should work but I would rather to stay more conservative here.
2. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. Skip it.
3. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. With 0.4 trigger we may see 15 pips move. Not worthy to take a risk. Skip it.
4. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment and I think this might work pretty well. I would use 4 trigger here. If it comes out at 66, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.
That would be all for this week.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
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14th August Signal
All the events for today did not trigger our signals. GBP Claimant Count Change came out at 20.1K, while USD Core Retail Sales came out at 0.4% but USDJPY still went down by over 40pips in 1 hour.
Time: 7:00am. Event: EUR German Prelim GDP q/q.
Previous: 1.5%. Forecast: -0.8%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if it is 0% or a positive number for 30pips or more in the first hour of the report.
Sell EURUSD if actual is -1.6% or more negative for 30pips.
EUR CPI y/y will come out at 10:00am.
Previous: 4.1%. Forecast: 4.1%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 4.3% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour. Sell EURUSD if it is 3.9% or lower.
Trading this on the retracement might be a good idea.
At 1:30pm we will be watching and probably trading USD Core CPI m/m.
Previous: 0.3%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips in the first 15 minutes. Sell USDJPY if it is 0.0% or negative for 30pips or more.
Please pay attention also to the year over year components to avoid whipsaw.
You may straddle with 10pips stop loss.
Then at 11:45pm we will be watching and probably trading NZD Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: -1.2%. Forecast: 0.1%.
Recommendations: Buy NZDUSD if actual is 0.8% or higher for 20pips in the first 5 minutes.
Sell NZDUSD if it is -0.6% or more negative for 20pips.
Time: 7:00am. Event: EUR German Prelim GDP q/q.
Previous: 1.5%. Forecast: -0.8%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if it is 0% or a positive number for 30pips or more in the first hour of the report.
Sell EURUSD if actual is -1.6% or more negative for 30pips.
EUR CPI y/y will come out at 10:00am.
Previous: 4.1%. Forecast: 4.1%.
Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 4.3% or higher for 30pips or more in the first hour. Sell EURUSD if it is 3.9% or lower.
Trading this on the retracement might be a good idea.
At 1:30pm we will be watching and probably trading USD Core CPI m/m.
Previous: 0.3%. Forecast: 0.2%.
Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 0.4% or higher for 30pips in the first 15 minutes. Sell USDJPY if it is 0.0% or negative for 30pips or more.
Please pay attention also to the year over year components to avoid whipsaw.
You may straddle with 10pips stop loss.
Then at 11:45pm we will be watching and probably trading NZD Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: -1.2%. Forecast: 0.1%.
Recommendations: Buy NZDUSD if actual is 0.8% or higher for 20pips in the first 5 minutes.
Sell NZDUSD if it is -0.6% or more negative for 20pips.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
August 13 2008.
At 9:30am GBP CPI y/y came out at 4.4% and GBPUSD moved for a buy for over 40pips in the first minute with a very sharp retracement immediately.
The USD Trade Balance did not do quite well with an outcome of -56.8B.
Let us now have an outlook of what to expect on Wednesday.
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP Claimant Change Counts.
Previous: 15.5k. Forecast: 17.5k.
Recommendations: I will trade this with 5K deviation. Buy GBPUSD if it is 12.5k or lower for 30 pips or more.
Sell GBPUSD if it comes out at 22.5k or higher for 30 pips.
Time: 1:30pm. Event: USD Core Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: 0.8%. Forecast: 0.5%.
Recommendations: Barring any contrast with the Retail Sales m/m buy USDJPY if actual is 0.7% or higher for 30 pips or more.
Sell USDJPY if it is 0.3% or lower. Pre release price might play a big role in the price action.
That will be all for Wednesday August 13 2008.
This is to your success!
The USD Trade Balance did not do quite well with an outcome of -56.8B.
Let us now have an outlook of what to expect on Wednesday.
Time: 9:30am. Event: GBP Claimant Change Counts.
Previous: 15.5k. Forecast: 17.5k.
Recommendations: I will trade this with 5K deviation. Buy GBPUSD if it is 12.5k or lower for 30 pips or more.
Sell GBPUSD if it comes out at 22.5k or higher for 30 pips.
Time: 1:30pm. Event: USD Core Retail Sales m/m.
Previous: 0.8%. Forecast: 0.5%.
Recommendations: Barring any contrast with the Retail Sales m/m buy USDJPY if actual is 0.7% or higher for 30 pips or more.
Sell USDJPY if it is 0.3% or lower. Pre release price might play a big role in the price action.
That will be all for Wednesday August 13 2008.
This is to your success!
Tuesday 12th August 2008
Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI m/m coming out. Please remember that this indicator spikes up or down and then reverses very fast. Please watch the video for very detailed explanation of this indicator. If it comes out at 0% or positive, GBP/USD should spike up by 50 pips. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, we should see a 50 pips spike down on GBP/USD and you might think about buying around those levels.
2. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Trade Balance. Skip it.
3. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have PPI out of New Zealand. Skip it.
That's all for Tuesday.
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI m/m coming out. Please remember that this indicator spikes up or down and then reverses very fast. Please watch the video for very detailed explanation of this indicator. If it comes out at 0% or positive, GBP/USD should spike up by 50 pips. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, we should see a 50 pips spike down on GBP/USD and you might think about buying around those levels.
2. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Trade Balance. Skip it.
3. Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have PPI out of New Zealand. Skip it.
That's all for Tuesday.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
August 07th, 2008
1. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Halifax House Price Index coming out which is expected to come out at -1.5. With 1 deviation GBP/USD may move 20 pips so there might be a little scalping opportunity. If it comes out at -2.5 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 20 pips move. If it comes out at -0.5 or less negative or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 20 pips move as well. Again, this is not a big indicator - this would be just a quick scalping.
2. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged. If they hike the rates, I would buy GBP/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell GBP/USD and expect a big move as well.
3. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 7:45 a.m. we will have European Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged as well. If they hike the rates, I would buy EUR/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell EUR/USD and expect a big move as well.
4. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EUROZONE
After 8:30 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. This is a very tradable event but requires you to have a very good skills to do so. Do not even try to trade his speeches if you are new in Forex. If you are more advanced and interested to trade it, please watch the video or sign up for the trial period to the Diamonds room.
5. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales. If it comes out at +3.0% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -5.0% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips move as well.
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Halifax House Price Index coming out which is expected to come out at -1.5. With 1 deviation GBP/USD may move 20 pips so there might be a little scalping opportunity. If it comes out at -2.5 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 20 pips move. If it comes out at -0.5 or less negative or positive, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 20 pips move as well. Again, this is not a big indicator - this would be just a quick scalping.
2. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged. If they hike the rates, I would buy GBP/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell GBP/USD and expect a big move as well.
3. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 7:45 a.m. we will have European Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged as well. If they hike the rates, I would buy EUR/USD and expect a move of 70 pips. If they cut the rates, I would sell EUR/USD and expect a big move as well.
4. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EUROZONE
After 8:30 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. This is a very tradable event but requires you to have a very good skills to do so. Do not even try to trade his speeches if you are new in Forex. If you are more advanced and interested to trade it, please watch the video or sign up for the trial period to the Diamonds room.
5. Thursday, August 07th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales. If it comes out at +3.0% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -5.0% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 25 to 40 pips move as well.
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