FOREX SIGNAL

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, October 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Personal Income m/m and Personal Spending m/m. In order to trade it, you need to have +/- 1.0 deviation on at least one of them, and the other one cannot be conflicting. If one of them deviates by +1.0 and the other one is not conflicting, USD/JPY should go up by 30 pips. If one of them deviates by -1.0 and the other one is not conflicting, USD/JPY should go down by 30 pips. Because two reports need to be analyzed, I will personally skip them since it would be too tricky to set it up on SNW but if you want to take a risk, this may actually work pretty well.

2. Friday, October 31st, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 9:42 a.m. we will have Chicago PMI. This is tradable only if you can get the number at 9:42, not 9:45, and since this report cannot be traded from SNW, I will not trade it. Due to current market conditions, this report can be traded if there is a big surprise so minimum trigger here would be +/- 5.0. A deviation of +5.0 or more should send USD/JPY up a bit, and a deviation of -5.0 or more negative should send USD/JPY down a bit.

That would be all for this week.

Events Today

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

Events Today:

* EuroZone Oct. CPI Estimate (1000)
* EuroZone Sep. Unemployment Rate (1000)
* Switzerland Oct. KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (1030)
* Canada Aug. GDP (1230)
* US Sep. Personal Income and Spending (1230)
* US Sep. PCE Core (1230)
* US Oct. Chicago PMI (1345)
* US Oct. Final University of Michigan Confidence (1400)

Events Today

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Events Today:


* Germany Oct. Unemployment Rate and Change (0855)
* Norway Oct. Unemployment Rate (0900)
* Norway Sep. Retail Sales (0900)
* EuroZone Oct. Confidence Surveys (1000)
* Canada Sep. Industrial Product Price and Raw Materials Prices (1230)
* US Q3 Preliminary GDP estimate (1230)
* US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (1230)
* US Fed's Kroszner to Speak (1230)
* US Fed's Yellen to Speak (1915)
* Japan Oct. Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (2315)
* Japan Sep. Jobless Rate (2330)
* Japan Sep. Household Spending (2330)
* Japan Oct. CPI (2330)
* UK Oct. GfK Consumer Confidence (0001)
* Australia RBA's Debelle to Speak (0030)
* Australia Sep. HIA New Home Sales (0100)
* Japan BoJ Target Rate (no time given)
* Japan Sep. Housing Starts (0500)

October 29th

. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods Orders m/m which is expected to come out at -1.5%. Last month it came out 2.5 below expectations and we saw 40 pips move on USD/JPY. However, we this time will also have Interest Rate decision so the price action might be a bit weird. Nevertheless, if it comes out at 0.1% or higher, I would probably give a try and buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -3.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips as well. It would be good if the headline number is not conflicting.

2. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 9:00 a.m. we will have Interest Rate out of Norway. Be careful - very high spreads may happen! If they cut by 0.50% from 5.25% to 4.75%, there is not much you can do as it is widely expected. If they cut only to 5.00% or hold the rates unchanged at 5.25%, you may try to sell USD/NOK or EUR/NOK, looking for 400 or more pips. If they cut the rates by 0.75% or more, I would buy EUR/NOK or USD/NOK and expect 400 pips (or more) move as well.

3. Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:15 p.m. we will have U.S. Interest Rate statement, and over half of economists expected them to cut the rates by 0.50% from 1.50% to 1.00%. About 25% of economists expect them to cut the rates by 0.25% from 1.50% to 1.25%, and around 20% of them are expecting them to keep the rates unchanged. A small number of economists expect them to cut the rates by 0.75%. If they cut the rates to 1.00%, it would be a no trade. If they cut the rates by 0.25% from 1.50% to 1.25%, I would sell EUR/JPY, looking for 100 to 300 pips move. If they don't cut the rates, it should be a very good sell trade on EUR/JPY. If they cut the rates by 0.75% from 1.50% to 0.75%, I would buy EUR/JPY and expect a nice move. Please watch the video for more, VERY IMPORTANT details.

October 27th signal

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, October 27th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German Ifo Business Climate and it is expected to come out at 91.0 or 91.2 although there is quite wide range of expectations but most people expect lower number. Therefore, we need to use bigger lower trigger and we can try to use smaller upper trigger. Last month this report failed but chances are good this month it may work quite OK. I would strongly recommend to be very careful but I will be trading it myself. If it comes out at 88.9, I would sell EUR/USD and try to make some pips on the spike. If it comes out at 92.5 or higher, I would buy EUR/USD. I would rush to take profits on this because the market is weird and it is hard to predict how the market is going to react on it. Because there are still 5 hours to this report, it is hard to say how exactly approach this report because the price level right before will matter a lot. Also, if it comes out slightly lower than expected, it is very possible the price will spike down a bit and then go the other way so trading against the number also may work.

2. Monday, October 27th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. New Home Sales. I cannot give triggers for this now because current price level will matter a lot. If you are new to Forex, I would skip this report.

That would be all for Monday.

Friday October 24th

1. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP q/q. It is expected to come out at -0.2%. Because GBP/USD is on such strong down trend, probably you can just short GBP/USD and make money. Therefore, if it comes out at -0.3% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. If it comes out at -0.1% or 0.0%, I would also sell but on the spike up (if any). That it, I would wait for the spike up, and try to short at better price. I think because of such strong down trend we will see a very short living spike up should GDP comes out at -0.1 or 0.0. If it is positive, I would be more careful, perhaps stay away.

2. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m which is expected to come out at 0.3%. I still think it is better to trade against the spike on higher CPI here. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher and other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy USD/CAD right after USD/CAD spikes down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would enter long on USD/CAD on a spike and I would not trade against it.

3. Friday, October 24th, 2008 (10:0 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales m/m. Because of all the other problems, I don't think people would care about this report. However, if it comes out much better, and you are around your trading station, you may to sell EUR/USD or GBP/USD as an excuse to enter a short trade. Unfortunately, it is hard to say what USD will do in the next few hours so such decision must be made right before the report.

Thursday October 23rd

Thursday, October 23rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Thursday at 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. It is hard to say if this is going to give a reliable move, and based on recent past experience I would be very careful with it. If you look at chart from August, we had 60 pips spike up on 1.0 deviation, but it was a very short living move and it retraced by 100%. Because GBP/USD is on extremely strong selling trend, perhaps buying at the spike might be extremely risky because traders may take advantage of the better price to sell again. It will also depend on where the price is right before the report. I think +/- 0.8 deviation should be enough to enter a spike trade if you have SNW but you must exit within seconds, regardless if you are on profit or loss. If it deviates by +0.8, I think selling at the top of the spike on GBP/USD may work well. If it deviates by -0.8, selling on the spike may work OK but I would be careful with buying against the spike. Perhaps small position would be OK to give a try and make a lunch money, but I really mean a small position because I don't feel like I want to buy GBP/USD, even at the discounted price. Obviously if the deviation is crazy, trading against the spike would be too risky and it is better to make some money on the spike and stay away from trading against the spike. Again, I will personally check the price level right before the report and then determinate what is the best strategy. Also, watch out for possible leaks - recently U.K. reports tend to move before the official announcement.

That's all for Thursday.

Friday, October 17th,

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, October 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Housing Starts. This may move the market a bit but I would not put a lot of hopes on it. I want to see a nice move on it before I start recommending trading it.

2. Friday, October 17th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment coming out. This might bring 20 pips if the trigger is hit although this might be a slow mover either. If this comes out at 59 or lower, you may sell USD/JPY. On the other hand, if it comes out at 71 or higher, you may buy USD/JPY.

Signal for 16th October

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, October 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI Core m/m coming out. I would trade USD/JPY on this. If it comes out at 0.3 or higher, and the other numbers are as expected or higher, I would sell USD/JPY SHORTLY AFTER the release. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, and the other numbers are as expected or lower, I would buy USD/JPY SHORTLY AFTER the release. If the trigger is hit, I would expect 30 to 40 pips move.

The other reports such as US TIC, Industrial Production or Philadelphia Fed may move the market a bit but currently I would not trade them

Signal for 3rd Oct. 2008

Key Risk Events (All times in GMT)


* Norway Sep. PMI (0700)
* Germany Final Sep. Services PMI (0755)
* EuroZone Final Sep. Services PMI (0800)
* UK Sep. Services PMI (0830)
* EuroZone Aug. Retail Sales (0900)
* US Sep. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (1230)
* US Sep. Unemployment Rate (1230)
* US Sep. ISM Non-manufacturing (1400)


Market Comments

EURUSD plummeted to a new 12-month low yesterday as Trichet brought absolutely nothing new to the table and essentially highlighted what everyone is already worrying about: that Europe is incapable of the kind of unified US response to a systemic banking crisis. The clear message after the expected "no change" decision on rates at Trichet's press conference was that the ECB is looking to ease rates at the next meeting. We think they will have eased at least 50 basis points by the end of the year. Mr. Trichet changed his language on perceived inflation risks and had a more dour view on growth in line with what is now painfully obvious in the rear-view mirror for the EuroZone economy. In the background, IG Metall is looking for an 8% pay increase just as Germany is performing a spectacular crash landing...it will be interesting to see what kind of agreement emerges for these workers on the other side of negotiations.

It was almost humorous to see the plunge in EURUSD accelerating most when it crossed the wires that a "rate cut had been discussed". Shock! Awe! Really, folks - if Trichet and company hadn't at least discussed a rate cut, then you would have to wonder if they lived on the same planet as the rest of us. While EURUSD did post new lows on the day, the action later in the day quieted and overnight EURUSD was even rallying up toward the first key resistance area at 1.3885, the old low and the approximate spot where the huge rising trendline from 2002 was broken.

The market fear level remains very high as evidenced by the various credit spreads and other indicators that simply aren't coming down yet. It's rather scary to be headed to another weekend of uncertainty with the TARP vote today (we assume it will be passed - big question is of course the reaction) and a probably very ugly US employment report. Unfortunately, the US employment indicator is a terribly lagging one - with the accelerating weakness already in the pipeline, we fear US unemployment could reach toward 8% next year - which would be the worst since the early 1980's, when the US was still emerging from stagflation. Research report after research report discusses the self-reinforcing aspects of the enormous web of credit dependencies in this situation, including everything from consumer financing to especially local government funding. The basic message is that the latest tightness will cause cutbacks, cutbacks, cutbacks. And every day that credit markets remain so dysfunctional, the belt tightens another notch.

The FX market will likely move along the axis of fear as it has consistently been doing lately. More fear and credit tightness likely equates to a stronger USD and JPY and any dramatic easing in fear levels means that we should all buy EURJPY. Those looking for a lottery ticket might look for a Monday expiry low-delta EURJPY or AUDJPY call if fear spikes even higher after the US employment report...more as an expression of hope that things won't simply continue to get worse in an unmitigated straight line than anything else....we find little reason to hope for positive outcomes here in the short term - but sometimes it's best to fade the fear. Of course, you can also embrace the fear with Monday low-delta EURJPY/AUDJPY puts on any rallies in risk appetite this morning. The spot market should be played with low leverage. Our basic ATR indicator shows that EURUSD is more than 3 x more volatile than it was in July of last year just before the Bear Stearns funds blowup kicked this whole credit crisis in motion.

As always, be careful out there...

Chart: EURGBP
The EUR weakness has become so pronounced that it is now even moving decisively lower versus the British pound, where so much pain had already been priced in. The relative strength in GBP is most likely a result of a deleveraging environment (taking off existing GBP shorts and EUR longs broadly speaking) rather than an expression of confidence in the UK economy, which is a study in slowly unfolding train wrecks. Nonetheless, if the support area just below 0.7800 gives way (this is the flatline support - the 200-day moving average comes in already close to current levels), we wonder if this could open up for a significant test lower toward 0.7600.

Forex Signal for Friday 29th

Let's talk about Friday.
Let's talk about friday events.

1. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP m/m coming out as well as Raw
Material Index and some other reports out of Canada. We will also have
a few U.S. reports such as U.S. Core PCE or U.S. Personal Income. For
the afterspike trading: focus first on the U.S. reports. Personal Income
is expected to come out at -0.2%, by the way. If Personal Income comes
out at -0.7% and Personal Spending comes out at -0.3%, I would sell USD/JPY
or buy EUR/USD, and look for 30 pips or so. If either of them comes out
lower by 1.0 and the other one would not conflict, this would also be
a sell signal on USD/JPY or buy on EUR/USD. If U.S. Personal Income comes
out at 0.3% and Personal Spending comes out at 0.7%, this would be buy
on USD/JPY or sell on EUR/USD. Or, if either comes out higher by 1.0,
and the other one is not conflicting, this should work as well. U.S.
Core PCE is not a big deal.

2. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
For the Canadian GDP: 0.5 deviation on the GDP Annualized or 0.2 deviation
on GDP m/m should be enough to move EUR/CAD pretty well. Raw Material index,
when conflicting, can be a problem but other than that, this should be
tradable if you have SNW software. Keep in mind that we might see a very
fast retracement and Canadian GDP is not as hot as it used to be but
I still think this is worthy to give a try (Sir Pips does not agree, well,
time will show...). I cannot access FPA Calendar now to give you a few
examples, but I do remember that USD/CAD may not move at all whereas
EUR/USD can move pretty well. At least this was a case last month,
I believe. I would actually prefer to check charts to make sure 0.2 on
m/m is not too risky to trade but I am not able to do that now. Keep in
mind that EUR/CAD may and usually have higher spread than USD/CAD but
I would really forget about USD/CAD here. Higher GDP is good for the
Canadian dollar so it would be sell on EUR/CAD, and lower GDP is bad
for the Canadian dollar and this would be a buy signal on EUR/CAD. Too
\bad I cannot post this on FPA forum so I am not leaving specific triggers
as I need to work more on this, and I am not able to update emails like
I would be able to update a post on FPA website. If you want to play safe,
you may try 0.3 deviation on GDP m/m and 0.2 trigger would be for more
aggressive traders if they can get fast, know how to exit fast and have
a reasonable spread on EUR/CAD.

3. Friday, August 29th, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:42 we will have Chicago PMI. You can trade it only if you are able
to get the number at 9:42 a.m., NOT 9:45 a.m. If it comes out at 52.0 or
higher, it should be OK to sell GBP/USD or EUR/USD and look for 30 pips
move. If it comes out at 47.9 or lower, this should be OK to buy EUR/USD
or GDP/USD. I would personally want to see at least 3 deviation as I saw
quite high spreads on previous releases and I cannot hook up SNW with that.

That would be all for Friday.

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Forex Signal for August 28th

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

It came out higher than expected by 1.4, from -0.7% expected to 0.7%,
and the headline came out higher as well. In the first minute it moved
by only 10 pips but it was a beginning of the up trend and eventually
USD/JPY moved by 80 pips. It seems it worked better so maybe next time
I will focus more on it.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Prices m/m which is expected
to come out at -1.5%. If it comes out at -2.0% or lower (more negative),
I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other hand, if it
comes out at -1.0% or less negative, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips
move as well.

2. Thursday, August 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. 2nd Q GDP Annualized Prelim. Rev. which is
expected to come out at 2.7%. Because this is annualized, I would use 0.4
trigger here. If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and
look for 40 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at 3.1%
or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 40 pips move as well. If we get
a signal, make sure there is no significant conflict with U.S. Initial
obless Claims. Remember, higher IJC is bad for the U.S. dollar (selling
pressure on USD/JPY) and lower IJC is good for the U.S. dollar (buying
pressure on USD/JPY). Also, be careful of a possible whipsaw/reversal
effect as this was doing that before.

That would be all for Thursday.

Forex Trading Signal 08/27/08 - Today

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods. Last month we had a pretty good price action on USD/JPY but nothing impressive on EUR/USD or GDP/USD so I still don't trust this report enough to put any real money on it. Even with that great deviation we had last month, usually half of the time it works great and the other half of the time not so great. If the price is just about to go one or the other way and this report deviates same way, market can use it as an excuse to jump into a trade. This, however, would require you to do some analysis right before the report because as of right now I am not able to tell you which way the price wants to go. The London session may and probably will move currencies one or the other way so most likely the price will be at the other level right before the report. If you are new, skip it. Remember, you don't have to follow what we write here so if you want to trade it, go ahead. I will not be trading it.

That would be all for Wednesday.

Major Pairs at Key Levels

Dollar's rally is still being held by key levels in against some major currencies. GBP/USD recovers after hitting 1.83
level, AUD/USD is drawing support from 0.85. USD/CHF is still struggling around 1.1. Momentum in EUR/USD is not
convincing too. Dollar is struggling to find follow through buying with oil still held inside range of 112 and 118 level
and will probably need a break out there to give clear direction. On the other hand, note that focus in the major pairs
will remain on near term levels mentioned in out technical outlook reports and as long as these levels holds, there is
still no change in dollar's near term bullish outlook ye

Trading Signals for August 26

Hello and welcome to news trading signals.

Time: 9:00am. Event: German IFO Business expectations

Previous: 90.0. Forecast: 90.3.

Recommendations: Buy EURUSD if actual is 91.8 or higher for 30 pips or more in the first 5 minutes.

Sell EURUSD if it is 88.8 or lower for 30 pips.

German IFO Business climate m/m comes out at the same time. Although historical performance shows the 2 always move in one direction, but pay close attention just in case there is a contradiction.

You may straddle the report.

Time: 3:00pm. Event: USD New Home Sales.

Previous: 530K. Forecast: 530K.

Recommendations: Buy USDJPY if actual is 550K or higher for 20pips or more in the first minute.

Sell USDJPY if it is 510K. A sell signal may do better than a buy signal this time.

That will be all for Tuesday August 26.

Dollar Edges Higher

Dollar Edges Higher, Focus on Existing Home Sales
===========================================

Dollar edges further higher in a quiet start of the day. Weakness in Sterling is particular apparent as GBP/USD dives
below 1.85 level. Euro, Aussie, Swissy all weakens against the greenback too but is still holding above last week's
low. Technically speaking, outlook is still rather mixed but favor is mildly in the case that last week's pull back in the
dollar has completed already and hence, more upside is in favor for the greenback this week. Though, the major
currencies will need to break through last week's low to confirm.

More......

Click here for our Action Insight Forex Report for today.

http://www.actionforex.com/contentsection/action-insight/

Forex Signal for 25th August

1. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales. Last month it did not hit my trigger (-0.08) but we saw 30 pips move on USD/JPY. This month it is expected to come out at 4.91M and I would use 0.08 deviation. If it comes out at 4.83M or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move move in the first 30 minutes. If it comes out at 5.00M, I would buy USD/JPY and expected 30 pips move as well.

2. Monday, August 25th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m.

That would be all for Monday.

Alert

Dollar Soft, Focus on Bernanke
========================

Dollar's pull back against major currencies is still in progress on the back of rebound in oil prices. The greenback is
showing further indication that a short term top is in place and more pull back is anticipated, in particular if commodity
prices rebound further. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is unchanged and more medium term weakness is still
expected from the greenback after completing the current pull back