Dollar Weakens against Sterling, Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie
Dollar continues to weaken against Sterling and commodity currencies including Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie today on the back on investors' optimism. Japanese Nikkei closed 127 pts high following 196 pts rally in DOW overnight. A survey from National Association for Business Economics survey showed that economists expect US growth to turn positive in second half of this year with pace of job losses narrowing sharply this year. Employment is expected to turn up in early 2010 after unemployment rate hits 9.8% by year end.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Forex Trading Signal 05/13/09
Hey folks,
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
To our success,
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
To our success,
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
BoJ Boosts JGB Purchase, BoE Minutes and FOMC Next
The Japanese yen remains soft in tight range after Bank of Japan left overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.1%. At the same time, BoJ boosted purchase of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) up from ¥1.4T to ¥1.8T per month. BoJ said in the statment that markets will "remain under stress" in the new fiscal year and "continued provision of substantial liquidity is required to ensure stability in financial markets." BoJ has also announced yesterday it is setting up a ¥1T fund to give subordinated loans to banks. JGBs trade higher after the announcement pushing yield down slightly and should make it easiser for the government to fund the planned deficits. But markets are increasingly worried that BoJ is running out of new ideas to revive the economy of Japan, whieh appears to be much more affected by the current financial crisis than other developed countries. Nikkei edged higher by 23 pts to 7972 today but failed to sustain above 8000 psychological level after breaching briefly.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Forex news
Euro Remains Pressured ahead of Inflation Release, Busy Calendar Ahead
Euro remains pressured as markets are awaiting the highly anticipated HICP inflation flash estimate in Dec from Eurozone. ECB comments took a drastic turn with ECB member Constancio and Vice President Papademos voicing out support for rate cuts should inflation ease further. HICP is expected to ease from 2.1% yoy to 1.8% yoy in Dec which is consistent with ECB's definition of price stability of 'below 2%, close to 2%' and that should give much room for ECB to cut rates to revive the deepening recession in the Eurozone.
Euro remains pressured as markets are awaiting the highly anticipated HICP inflation flash estimate in Dec from Eurozone. ECB comments took a drastic turn with ECB member Constancio and Vice President Papademos voicing out support for rate cuts should inflation ease further. HICP is expected to ease from 2.1% yoy to 1.8% yoy in Dec which is consistent with ECB's definition of price stability of 'below 2%, close to 2%' and that should give much room for ECB to cut rates to revive the deepening recession in the Eurozone.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Monday, December 29, 2008
Market News
Euro and Swissy Up on Safe Haven Flow
The post Christmas thin markets are dominated by safe haven flow on escalation of conflicts in Middle East. Swiss Franc rallies across the board and takes Euro along with it. In particular, EUR/GBP scores another record high of 0.9663 today, while GBP/CHF also dives to new low at 1.5503. While dollar remains pretty steady against other major currencies like Yen, Sterling and Aussie, dollar index is dragged down by weakness against Euro and Swissy and is back pressing 80 level. Gold rises to as high as 870 so far while crude oil is firm above $38 level. Israeli warplane pounded the Hamas-ruled Gaza for the third consecutive day on Monday and more attacked could be planned after over 300 were killed.
The post Christmas thin markets are dominated by safe haven flow on escalation of conflicts in Middle East. Swiss Franc rallies across the board and takes Euro along with it. In particular, EUR/GBP scores another record high of 0.9663 today, while GBP/CHF also dives to new low at 1.5503. While dollar remains pretty steady against other major currencies like Yen, Sterling and Aussie, dollar index is dragged down by weakness against Euro and Swissy and is back pressing 80 level. Gold rises to as high as 870 so far while crude oil is firm above $38 level. Israeli warplane pounded the Hamas-ruled Gaza for the third consecutive day on Monday and more attacked could be planned after over 300 were killed.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
SCAM INVESTIGATION COMMITTEE
Two New Managed Account Scams
Managed forex accounts can be very dangerous. You have to trust the brokerage. You have to trust the managed account company. You have to trust the account manager who will trade your account. If any one of these fails to live up to your trust, you can lose all your money.
We've had 2 different managed account companies investigations reach the end in the last 2 days. These are HSNNA and Lloyds Capital Group LLC (LloydsFx).
FPA member Trader B had an account managed by HSNNA. First, HSNNA required him to use HSNNA as an introducing broker. This arrangement cost Trader B an extra pip per trade. HSNNA's representative, Jason Drenston, told Trader B that the broker required this. According to the broker, this was not true. This put HSNNA in a position to overtrade the account in order to collect excess spread commissions. This added up to over 10% of the account balance per month sometimes. Instead of being profitable, the initial balance was eroded by excess spread commissions and eventually destoyed by poor risk management. Trader B had already expressed concerns about over trading and excess risk, but HSNNA continued to trade the same way.
Two other FPA members also reported losing the bulk of the money in their accounts managed by HSNNA due to poor risk management.
After a time, Jason Drenston stopped responding to Trader B's messages. He then came to the FPA. FPA Investigator Tessa and Trader B repeatedly tried to contact HSNNA and Jason Drenston, but could get no response. The HSNNA website has been suspended. It appears that the people behind this have decided to take the money they have and leave.
We cannot consider poor trading alone to be a scam. We do consider refusing to speak with a trader to be unethical. We consider deception about IB commission structure to be unethical. We consider churning an account to generate excess commissions to be unethical. We consider failing to address a trader's concerns about risk to his account to be unethical. On this basis, we consider FPA member Trader B's scam complaint to be confirmed.
Trader B's original complaint about HSNNA
Official Scam Confirmation - HSNNA
Managed forex accounts can be very dangerous. You have to trust the brokerage. You have to trust the managed account company. You have to trust the account manager who will trade your account. If any one of these fails to live up to your trust, you can lose all your money.
We've had 2 different managed account companies investigations reach the end in the last 2 days. These are HSNNA and Lloyds Capital Group LLC (LloydsFx).
FPA member Trader B had an account managed by HSNNA. First, HSNNA required him to use HSNNA as an introducing broker. This arrangement cost Trader B an extra pip per trade. HSNNA's representative, Jason Drenston, told Trader B that the broker required this. According to the broker, this was not true. This put HSNNA in a position to overtrade the account in order to collect excess spread commissions. This added up to over 10% of the account balance per month sometimes. Instead of being profitable, the initial balance was eroded by excess spread commissions and eventually destoyed by poor risk management. Trader B had already expressed concerns about over trading and excess risk, but HSNNA continued to trade the same way.
Two other FPA members also reported losing the bulk of the money in their accounts managed by HSNNA due to poor risk management.
After a time, Jason Drenston stopped responding to Trader B's messages. He then came to the FPA. FPA Investigator Tessa and Trader B repeatedly tried to contact HSNNA and Jason Drenston, but could get no response. The HSNNA website has been suspended. It appears that the people behind this have decided to take the money they have and leave.
We cannot consider poor trading alone to be a scam. We do consider refusing to speak with a trader to be unethical. We consider deception about IB commission structure to be unethical. We consider churning an account to generate excess commissions to be unethical. We consider failing to address a trader's concerns about risk to his account to be unethical. On this basis, we consider FPA member Trader B's scam complaint to be confirmed.
Trader B's original complaint about HSNNA
Official Scam Confirmation - HSNNA
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Insight for Today
Quiet Markets Await US Data
With holidays coming close, market activity continue to decrease. Majors and crosses are bounded in tight range. Focus will turn to a bunch of economic data from US today including Nov Personal Income and spending, durables and conference board consumer confidence. Consumer confidence in Nov is forecasted to drop -0.7% after falling -1% in Oct. Durable goods orders should have fallen -3% in Nov, the 4th consecutive monthly decline after dropping -6.2% in October. Excluding transportation, it's also anticipated to be down by -3% with decline across most industries. Nov's personal consumption expenditure is expected to be flat (mom) as indicated by weak auto sales and retail consumption. As unemployment has been increasing, personal income should remain sluggish in Nov (consensus: 0%) after rising slightly by 0.3% in the previous month while personal spending should have contracted further by -0.7%.
With holidays coming close, market activity continue to decrease. Majors and crosses are bounded in tight range. Focus will turn to a bunch of economic data from US today including Nov Personal Income and spending, durables and conference board consumer confidence. Consumer confidence in Nov is forecasted to drop -0.7% after falling -1% in Oct. Durable goods orders should have fallen -3% in Nov, the 4th consecutive monthly decline after dropping -6.2% in October. Excluding transportation, it's also anticipated to be down by -3% with decline across most industries. Nov's personal consumption expenditure is expected to be flat (mom) as indicated by weak auto sales and retail consumption. As unemployment has been increasing, personal income should remain sluggish in Nov (consensus: 0%) after rising slightly by 0.3% in the previous month while personal spending should have contracted further by -0.7%.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/23/08
Hi there my Forex friend.
On Tuesday the 12-23 we have 3 situations to look out for
0430 EST UK GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
This is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.3% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
-0.2% or higher buy GBP/USD for about 30 pips
-0.8% or lower short GBP/USD for about 30 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
0830 EST US GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
As with UK GDP today, this is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.6% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
+0.1% or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
-1.1% or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
1000 EST US Existing and New Home Sales m/m.
EHS expected at 4.93M and NHS at 418K. I tip my hat a bit towards Existing home sales as the slightly more important report here, but definitely stay out on any conflict. Housing indicators aren't what they used to be, but with 2 out at the same time they could prove worthwhile.
EHS at 5.1M or NHS at 480K or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
EHS at 4.79M or NHS at 350K or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If both come out close to expectations, look for the technicals to take over, but it's more likely that the market and usd/jpy may rally on news that isn't horrible.
That's all for tonight. Good luck trading and Merry Christmas!
On Tuesday the 12-23 we have 3 situations to look out for
0430 EST UK GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
This is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.3% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
-0.2% or higher buy GBP/USD for about 30 pips
-0.8% or lower short GBP/USD for about 30 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
0830 EST US GDP 3Q final revision expected at -0.5%
As with UK GDP today, this is the final revision, so it will likely not get as much love from the markets as other releases, but with a 0.6% deviation it could be a stealth mover.
+0.1% or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
-1.1% or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If it comes out close to expectations, look to trade the technicals and possibly get in against the number as this will not be a trend setter and is likely to reverse an initial move.
1000 EST US Existing and New Home Sales m/m.
EHS expected at 4.93M and NHS at 418K. I tip my hat a bit towards Existing home sales as the slightly more important report here, but definitely stay out on any conflict. Housing indicators aren't what they used to be, but with 2 out at the same time they could prove worthwhile.
EHS at 5.1M or NHS at 480K or higher buy USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
EHS at 4.79M or NHS at 350K or lower short USD/JPY for about 30-40 pips
If both come out close to expectations, look for the technicals to take over, but it's more likely that the market and usd/jpy may rally on news that isn't horrible.
That's all for tonight. Good luck trading and Merry Christmas!
Monday, December 22, 2008
Current Forex Trading Signals
Hi there my forex friend.
Hi there my forex friend.
will be monitoring the markets and trading the key news down here this week. Tomorrow there is just one report worth looking out for, and that's:
NZ GDP q/q expected at -0.5. I would say a 0.3 deviation would be worth trading.
If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, I'd look to buy NZD/USD
If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, I'd look to sell NZD/USD
I'd expect a move of about 30 pips in either direction.
There's always a chance news like this might get ignored on a holiday week like this, but I think it has a decent chance of working. If it gets ignored, at least you can get out for a small gain or small loss without much harm done.
Take care folks, and Merry Christmas.
Hi there my forex friend.
will be monitoring the markets and trading the key news down here this week. Tomorrow there is just one report worth looking out for, and that's:
NZ GDP q/q expected at -0.5. I would say a 0.3 deviation would be worth trading.
If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, I'd look to buy NZD/USD
If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, I'd look to sell NZD/USD
I'd expect a move of about 30 pips in either direction.
There's always a chance news like this might get ignored on a holiday week like this, but I think it has a decent chance of working. If it gets ignored, at least you can get out for a small gain or small loss without much harm done.
Take care folks, and Merry Christmas.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/19/08
Let's talk about Friday.
1. Friday, December 19th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI. Do not trade the spike on this. Last month we had -0.2 deviation and a very confused price action and eventually the CAD actually gained some value. It is expected to come out at -0.1% If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, USD/CAD should eventually god down by 20 to 30 pips; if it comes out at +0.1% or higher, USD/CAD should eventually go up by 20 to 30 pips.That's all for today. Have a good weekend.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Forex Trading Signal 12/18/08
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONEAt 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate coming out. A few months ago it was a huge leading indicator but recently it did not work well because the market is now focused on current events, not what will be next month so such leading indicators are not the best to trade. If the deviation is lower than +/- 2.0, then probably trading against it would be the best option so if it spikes up, you can enter a short trade on EUR/USD; if it spikes down, you can buy EUR/USD. If the deviation is bigger than 2.0, then I would not trade against it (although chances are good it will retrace). Spike trading might or might not work - if you are able to get a small spread and be able to exit quickly, then I guess you can try spike trading here.
2. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out which is expected to come out at at -0.6%. It has a habit to spike and then to completely reverse so be prepared to see that again. Currently, the market is not driven by economic numbers (although in a few months they should again be very hot) so don't expect too much from this indicator either. If anything, I would trade 1.0% deviation. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD may go up by 25 to 30 pips (and it might also retrace then). If it comes out at -1.6%, GBP/USD should go down by 25 to 30 pips (and it may retrace as well).
3. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales coming out. This is a VERY weak report to trade, and I would not trade the spike here. A deviation of +/- 0.6 might produce a 20 pips spike but I don't trust this report too much (higher number, sell USD/CAD; lower number, buy USD/CAD; sell seems to be way more safe).
4. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philly Fed coming out. This is a very small indicator. Last month a deviation of -27.5 moved USD/JPY down by 30 pips but it was a HUGE deviation. If we see such deviation again, then yes, trading it might make sense although 10 deviation may work fine as well. If it comes out at -50 or more negative, you may sell USD/JPY and expect about 20 pips move. If it comes out at -30 or less negative, you may buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well. That's all for today. Have a good trading session.
1. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONEAt 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate coming out. A few months ago it was a huge leading indicator but recently it did not work well because the market is now focused on current events, not what will be next month so such leading indicators are not the best to trade. If the deviation is lower than +/- 2.0, then probably trading against it would be the best option so if it spikes up, you can enter a short trade on EUR/USD; if it spikes down, you can buy EUR/USD. If the deviation is bigger than 2.0, then I would not trade against it (although chances are good it will retrace). Spike trading might or might not work - if you are able to get a small spread and be able to exit quickly, then I guess you can try spike trading here.
2. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out which is expected to come out at at -0.6%. It has a habit to spike and then to completely reverse so be prepared to see that again. Currently, the market is not driven by economic numbers (although in a few months they should again be very hot) so don't expect too much from this indicator either. If anything, I would trade 1.0% deviation. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD may go up by 25 to 30 pips (and it might also retrace then). If it comes out at -1.6%, GBP/USD should go down by 25 to 30 pips (and it may retrace as well).
3. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales coming out. This is a VERY weak report to trade, and I would not trade the spike here. A deviation of +/- 0.6 might produce a 20 pips spike but I don't trust this report too much (higher number, sell USD/CAD; lower number, buy USD/CAD; sell seems to be way more safe).
4. Thursday, December 18th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Philly Fed coming out. This is a very small indicator. Last month a deviation of -27.5 moved USD/JPY down by 30 pips but it was a HUGE deviation. If we see such deviation again, then yes, trading it might make sense although 10 deviation may work fine as well. If it comes out at -50 or more negative, you may sell USD/JPY and expect about 20 pips move. If it comes out at -30 or less negative, you may buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well. That's all for today. Have a good trading session.
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